Applied Bayesian Forecasting And Time Series Analysis PDF Download
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| Author | : Andy Pole |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 432 |
| Release | : 2018-10-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1482267438 |
Download Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Practical in its approach, Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis provides the theories, methods, and tools necessary for forecasting and the analysis of time series. The authors unify the concepts, model forms, and modeling requirements within the framework of the dynamic linear mode (DLM). They include a complete theoretical development of the DLM and illustrate each step with analysis of time series data. Using real data sets the authors: Explore diverse aspects of time series, including how to identify, structure, explain observed behavior, model structures and behaviors, and interpret analyses to make informed forecasts Illustrate concepts such as component decomposition, fundamental model forms including trends and cycles, and practical modeling requirements for routine change and unusual events Conduct all analyses in the BATS computer programs, furnishing online that program and the more than 50 data sets used in the text The result is a clear presentation of the Bayesian paradigm: quantified subjective judgements derived from selected models applied to time series observations. Accessible to undergraduates, this unique volume also offers complete guidelines valuable to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students in statistics, operations research, and engineering.
| Author | : Mike West |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 720 |
| Release | : 2013-06-29 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1475793650 |
Download Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
| Author | : David Barber |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 432 |
| Release | : 2011-08-11 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0521196760 |
Download Bayesian Time Series Models Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.
| Author | : Anthony O' Hagan |
| Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
| Total Pages | : 924 |
| Release | : 2010-03-18 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0191613894 |
Download The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Bayesian analysis has developed rapidly in applications in the last two decades and research in Bayesian methods remains dynamic and fast-growing. Dramatic advances in modelling concepts and computational technologies now enable routine application of Bayesian analysis using increasingly realistic stochastic models, and this drives the adoption of Bayesian approaches in many areas of science, technology, commerce, and industry. This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase the scientific ease and natural application of Bayesian modelling, and present solutions to real, engaging, societally important and demanding problems. The chapters are grouped into five general areas: Biomedical & Health Sciences; Industry, Economics & Finance; Environment & Ecology; Policy, Political & Social Sciences; and Natural & Engineering Sciences, and Appendix material in each touches on key concepts, models, and techniques of the chapter that are also of broader pedagogic and applied interest.
| Author | : Routledge, Chapman & Hall, Incorporated |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9780412040016 |
Download Applied Bayesian Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Andrew Gelman |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 448 |
| Release | : 2004-09-03 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780470090435 |
Download Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.
| Author | : Andrew Gelman |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 677 |
| Release | : 2013-11-01 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1439840954 |
Download Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
| Author | : Peter Congdon |
| Publisher | : Wiley |
| Total Pages | : 478 |
| Release | : 2003-04-18 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780471486954 |
Download Applied Bayesian Modelling Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The use of Bayesian statistics has grown significantly in recent years, and will undoubtedly continue to do so. Applied Bayesian Modelling is the follow-up to the author’s best selling book, Bayesian Statistical Modelling, and focuses on the potential applications of Bayesian techniques in a wide range of important topics in the social and health sciences. The applications are illustrated through many real-life examples and software implementation in WINBUGS – a popular software package that offers a simplified and flexible approach to statistical modelling. The book gives detailed explanations for each example – explaining fully the choice of model for each particular problem. The book · Provides a broad and comprehensive account of applied Bayesian modelling. · Describes a variety of model assessment methods and the flexibility of Bayesian prior specifications. · Covers many application areas, including panel data models, structural equation and other multivariate structure models, spatial analysis, survival analysis and epidemiology. · Provides detailed worked examples in WINBUGS to illustrate the practical application of the techniques described. All WINBUGS programs are available from an ftp site. The book provides a good introduction to Bayesian modelling and data analysis for a wide range of people involved in applied statistical analysis, including researchers and students from statistics, and the health and social sciences. The wealth of examples makes this book an ideal reference for anyone involved in statistical modelling and analysis.
| Author | : Peter Congdon |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 464 |
| Release | : 2014-05-23 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1118895053 |
Download Applied Bayesian Modelling Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBUGS and OPENBUGS. This feature continues in the new edition along with examples using R to broaden appeal and for completeness of coverage.
| Author | : Peter Congdon |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 684 |
| Release | : 2014-06-25 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1118895061 |
Download Applied Bayesian Modelling Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBUGS and OPENBUGS. This feature continues in the new edition along with examples using R to broaden appeal and for completeness of coverage.
