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Investigation of Composite Cloud Fields as Applied to Tropical Storm Forecasting

Investigation of Composite Cloud Fields as Applied to Tropical Storm Forecasting
Author: Thomas J. Keegan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 20
Release: 1977
Genre: Cyclones
ISBN:

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This report reviews the work reported earlier in AFGL-TR-76-0170, Cloud Distributions as Indicators of Tropical Storm Displacement, by the same author, on the application of composite cloud imagery to the forecasting of tropical storm motion. Several additional techniques that were tested briefly for application to typhoon specification and forecasting are discussed and evaluated. Animations of 12-hour infrared images did not suggest anything useful within the limited time available for analysis. The technique, however, should be comprehensively tested with data of better time and spatial resolution. Infrared composites appeared to be less useful than visual composites. The increased detectability of thin cirrus clouds in the infrared masked the significant cloud features. An attempt to duplicate Dvorak's relationships between peak wind speed and the central and banding features of typhoons by compositing storms of similar intensity failed. The fine details Dvorak could distinguish in individual storms were destroyed by the compositing process. Objective analysis of satellite imagery of typhoons is seriously handicapped by the limited archive of digital data. (Author).


Tracking Tropical Cloud Systems - Observations for the Diagnosis of Simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Tracking Tropical Cloud Systems - Observations for the Diagnosis of Simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.


Cloud Distributions as Indicators of Tropical Storm Displacement

Cloud Distributions as Indicators of Tropical Storm Displacement
Author: Thomas J. Keegan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1976
Genre: Artificial satellites
ISBN:

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This is a preliminary report on use of satellite cloud imagery to forecast tropical cyclone movements. The spatial distribution of cloudiness implicitly indicates information about recent or ongoing processes in the atmosphere. Assuming that as with cloud distribution represents a set of initial conditions, it is reasonable to expect that forecast information can be extracted from these initial conditions. The problem with using satellite imagery as a self-contained forecast tool has been the difficulty in handling the data processing. The Man-computer Interactive Data Access System (McIDAS) is a flexible data management system the advantages of both human decision-making computer. With McIDAS it is relatively simple to assemble composites of images of storms with similar displacement characteristics. These composites reinforce the cloud or cloudless features common to the individual cases and mute randomly distributed clouds. Investigation of typhoon cloudiness in the Pacific indicate that there are different characteristic cloud distributions preceding storms that recurve and those that stay on westerly tracks. In particular there is a confluence of outflow cloudiness from the storm with the clouds of a mid-latitude frontal system in the case of low-latitude westward moving storms in the Philippine and South China Seas. Characteristic cloud patterns associated with other types of storm systems are also suggested by the analysis.


Observed Characteristics of Clouds and Precipitating Systems Associated with the Tropical Circulation in Global Models and Reanalyses

Observed Characteristics of Clouds and Precipitating Systems Associated with the Tropical Circulation in Global Models and Reanalyses
Author: Justin Paul Stachnik
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation presents a series of work related to the representation of the Hadley circulation (HC) in atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation models (GCMs), with connections to the underlying tropical and subtropical cloud systems that comprise the mean meridional circulation. An intercomparison of eight atmospheric reanalyses showed that significant variability exists in the mean state for HC intensity, with less variability in HC width. Ensemble trends were broadly consistent with previous work and suggest a strengthening and widening of the tropical circulation over the last 30 years. Composite profiles of the apparent heat source and moisture sink were calculated for the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud regimes using sounding observations from 10 field campaigns. Distinct heating profiles were determined for each ISCCP cloud regime, ranging from strong, upper-tropospheric heating for mesoscale convective systems to integrated cooling for populations associated with marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds. The derived profiles were generally similar over land and ocean with the notable exception of the fair-weather cumulus regime, which leads to some uncertainty in the mid- and upper-level reconstruction of subtropical heating. An instrument simulator indicated that low-latitude cloud properties from the NASA MERRA reanalysis qualitatively matched the distributions of cloud-top pressure and optical thickness in the ISCCP data, though the tallest and thickest clouds were missing from the reanalysis. Simulator results were sensitive to the choice of cloud overlap parameterization and the reanalysis consistently underpredicted the observed cloud fractions for all regimes. The vertical velocity, temperature, and moisture for each regime in MERRA largely matched observations from previous studies, suggesting that the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the cloud regimes are well captured by the reanalysis. Finally, HC interannual variability was examined as a function of the observed frequency of the ISCCP cloud regimes. The strongest HC overturning events were attributed to an El Ni©ło response in the central Pacific Ocean in addition to links between the intensity and position of the Pacific ITCZ. The ISCCP regime describing the most vigorous and organized convection contributed the most towards the total anomalous heating during HC extremes, despite an overall low frequency of occurrence. Idealized GCM simulations forced with the observed three-dimensional diabatic heating from ISCCP data produced too strong a HC with some improvement in other fields. Overall, much progress has been made regarding the links between low-latitude cloud systems and the HC, though future work will continue to address the upscale feedbacks of regional cloud variations upon the tropical circulation. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/149356