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Analysis of Value at Risk Models Based on the Shanghai Stock Index

Analysis of Value at Risk Models Based on the Shanghai Stock Index
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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Over the last few years, Value at Risk has been universally accepted as a measure of market risk in financial institutions. A lot of research has been done in the field of Value at Risk leading to the development of differing approaches to estimate Value at Risk. However each method has its own set of assumptions and there is very little consensus on the preferred method to estimate Value at Risk. Since all existing methods involve some tradeoff and simplifications, determining the best methodology for estimating Value at Risk becomes an empirical question for implementing the most suitable model. The challenge of this work is to come up with the best and easily implementable approach suitable to Shanghai Stock index data and apply time series models for calculating Value at Risk and compare their performance with current models. Several sketches of current methods are introduced with open issues associated with each method. The study identifies the path for future research to improve the performance of models. The Value at Risk models are evaluated over the two sample periods. The two periods serve to validate the performance of models over time. The best models (EWMA and GARCH) models were reevaluated for the extended forecast sample period and it was found that GARCH models performed consistently over the time. The study makes use of both parametric and non parametric models and also proposes some of the models to estimate Value at Risk. Performance evaluation of the risk metrics, Garch models and historical simulation Value at Risk models are outlined and assumptions tested on Shanghai stock exchange index. The risk metrics and the Garch models incorporate volatility updating as well as clustering phenomenon. It does a poor job in capturing the extreme tail region as compared to historical simulation models. On the other hand historical simulation models capture the tail of the empirical distribution, but are practically insensitive to periods of sudden volatility. Time series models fail to reject the random walk hypothesis and perform poorly in comparison to the current model .Overall the risk metrics model with decay factor of 0.90 performs better than all other models when comparing the accuracy of Value at Risk estimates in first sample period. However over the both forecast sample periods the GARCH models perform consistently. The performance of EWMA marginally deteriorates for the second sample period. It is felt that the conditioning on the past movement of the stock or assert in the previous period will significantly improve the performance of current Value at Risk models. The movements on the positive side should produce less volatility than the movements of equal magnitude on the negative side. This can be taken care of by conditioning of variance of returns on the direction of movement of asset.


The Study of Nonlinear Correlation Between Shanghai, Hongkong and American Stock Returns -- An Empirical Analysis Based on MS-VAR Model and MS-DCC-MVGARCH Model

The Study of Nonlinear Correlation Between Shanghai, Hongkong and American Stock Returns -- An Empirical Analysis Based on MS-VAR Model and MS-DCC-MVGARCH Model
Author: Decai Zhou
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Considering the mean and the volatility correlation of Chinese and foreign stock market may undergo structural changes because of the reform and opening-up, the paper attempts to incorporate Markov state transition mechanism(MS) into both the VAR model and DCC-MVGARCH model at the same time. Based on that, it constructs the MS-VAR model and MS-DCC-MVGARCH model to empirically verify the nonlinear mean spillover effect and the volatility correlation among the Shanghai, Hong Kong and American stock markets. Empirical research shows that: firstly, there exists differentiating character among the correlation of these stock markets. USA stock market has positive spillover effect on Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, but it is not obvious conversely; at the same time; the volatility correlation between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market is the highest, and it presents periodic volatility, while the volatility correlation between HK and US is the lowest, and it presents a stable fluctuant feature. Secondly, the interaction among the effects of Shanghai, Hong Kong and American Stock Market presents the obvious non-linear feature. The mean spillover effect among these stock markets in state 2 is significantly greater than in state 1; at the same time, the effects of volatility among these stock markets in state 1 is significantly higher than that of in state 2.


Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 512
Release: 2016-02-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118589475

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“Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.


MSEA 2023

MSEA 2023
Author: Gaikar Vilas
Publisher: European Alliance for Innovation
Total Pages: 859
Release: 2023-07-21
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1631904159

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The 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis (MSEA 2023) was held virtually from 26-28 May 2023 in Nanjing, China. The conference was attended by researchers, teachers, students and engineers in the field of mathematical statistics and economic analysis. Through data statistics and analysis, we can quickly understand the pattern of economic development. This conference combines mathematical statistics and economic analysis, explores the relationship between the two, and provides a platform for experts and scholars in the fields of mathematical statistics and economic analysis to discuss related issues and exchange ideas. Therefore, we hope to create a forum for sharing research results and exploring future research directions, so that participants can learn about the latest research directions, contents and results of mathematical statistics and economic analysis; secondly, we hope that the conference can provide solutions to the major problems facing mathematical statistics and economic analysis, and create a space that encourages discussion and joint development of research, technological development and innovation.


Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling

Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling
Author: Elisa Luciano
Publisher: MDPI
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2019-10-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3039216244

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Financial Risk Measurement is a challenging task, because both the types of risk and the techniques evolve very quickly. This book collects a number of novel contributions to the measurement of financial risk, which address either non-fully explored risks or risk takers, and does so in a wide variety of empirical contexts.


Emerging Trends in Intelligent and Interactive Systems and Applications

Emerging Trends in Intelligent and Interactive Systems and Applications
Author: Madjid Tavana
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 1007
Release: 2020-12-17
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3030637840

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This book reports on the proceeding of the 5th International Conference on Intelligent, Interactive Systems and Applications (IISA 2020), held in Shanghai, China, on September 25–27, 2020. The IISA proceedings, with the latest scientific findings, and methods for solving intriguing problems, are a reference for state-of-the-art works on intelligent and interactive systems. This book covers nine interesting and current topics on different systems’ orientations, including Analytical Systems, Database Management Systems, Electronics Systems, Energy Systems, Intelligent Systems, Network Systems, Optimization Systems, and Pattern Recognition Systems and Applications. The chapters included in this book cover significant recent developments in the field, both in terms of theoretical foundations and their practical application. An important characteristic of the works included here is the novelty of the solution approaches to the most interesting applications of intelligent and interactive systems.


Proceedings of 20th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

Proceedings of 20th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
Author: Ershi Qi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 1145
Release: 2013-12-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642400728

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The International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management is sponsored by the Chinese Industrial Engineering Institution, CMES, which is the only national-level academic society for Industrial Engineering. The conference is held annually as the major event in this arena. Being the largest and the most authoritative international academic conference held in China, it provides an academic platform for experts and entrepreneurs in the areas of international industrial engineering and management to exchange their research findings. Many experts in various fields from China and around the world gather together at the conference to review, exchange, summarize and promote their achievements in the fields of industrial engineering and engineering management. For example, some experts pay special attention to the current state of the application of related techniques in China as well as their future prospects, such as green product design, quality control and management, supply chain and logistics management to address the need for, amongst other things low-carbon, energy-saving and emission-reduction. They also offer opinions on the outlook for the development of related techniques. The proceedings offers impressive methods and concrete applications for experts from colleges and universities, research institutions and enterprises who are engaged in theoretical research into industrial engineering and engineering management and its applications. As all the papers are of great value from both an academic and a practical point of view, they also provide research data for international scholars who are investigating Chinese style enterprises and engineering management.


Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2019-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262039370

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An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.


Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis (MSEA 2022)

Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis (MSEA 2022)
Author: Gaikar Vilas Bhau
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 1514
Release: 2022-12-22
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9464630426

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This is an open access book. 2022 International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis(MSEA 2022) will be held in Dalian, China from May 27 to 29, 2022. Based on probability theory, mathematical statistics studies the statistical regularity of a large number of random phenomena, and infers and forecasts the whole. Economic development is very important to people's life and the country. Through data statistics and analysis, we can quickly understand the law of economic development. This conference combines mathematical statistics and economic analysis for the first time to explore the relationship between them, so as to provide a platform for experts and scholars in the field of mathematical statistics and economic analysis to exchange and discuss.


Value at Risk, 3rd Ed.

Value at Risk, 3rd Ed.
Author: Philippe Jorion
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 624
Release: 2006-11-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071736921

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Since its original publication, Value at Risk has become the industry standard in risk management. Now in its Third Edition, this international bestseller addresses the fundamental changes in the field that have occurred across the globe in recent years. Philippe Jorion provides the most current information needed to understand and implement VAR-as well as manage newer dimensions of financial risk. Featured updates include: An increased emphasis on operational risk Using VAR for integrated risk management and to measure economic capital Applications of VAR to risk budgeting in investment management Discussion of new risk-management techniques, including extreme value theory, principal components, and copulas Extensive coverage of the recently finalized Basel II capital adequacy rules for commercial banks, integrated throughout the book A major new feature of the Third Edition is the addition of short questions and exercises at the end of each chapter, making it even easier to check progress. Detailed answers are posted on the companion web site www.pjorion.com/var/. The web site contains other materials, including additional questions that course instructors can assign to their students. Jorion leaves no stone unturned, addressing the building blocks of VAR from computing and backtesting models to forecasting risk and correlations. He outlines the use of VAR to measure and control risk for trading, for investment management, and for enterprise-wide risk management. He also points out key pitfalls to watch out for in risk-management systems. The value-at-risk approach continues to improve worldwide standards for managing numerous types of risk. Now more than ever, professionals can depend on Value at Risk for comprehensive, authoritative counsel on VAR, its application, and its results-and to keep ahead of the curve.