Analysis And Prediction Of The Ethereum Transaction Network PDF Download

Blockchain offers a decentralized, immutable, transparent system of records. It offers a peer-to-peer network of nodes with no centralised governing entity making it 'unhackable' and therefore, more secure than the traditional paper based or centralised system of records like banks etc. While there are certain advantages to the paper based recording approach, it does not work well with digital relationships where the data is in constant flux. Unlike traditional channels, governed by centralized entities, blockchain offers its users a certain level of anonymity by providing capabilities to interact without disclosing their personal identities and allows them to build trust without a third-party governing entity. Due to the aforementioned characteristics of blockchain, more and more users around the globe are inclined towards making a digital transaction via blockchain than via rudimentary channels. Therefore, there is a dire need for us to gain insight on how these transactions are processed by the blockchain and how much time it may take for a peer to confirm a transaction and add it to the blockchain network. In this thesis, we aim to introduce a novel approach that would allow one to estimate the time (in block time or otherwise) it would take for Ethereum Blockchain to accept and confirm a transaction to a block using machine learning. We explore two of the most fundamental machine learning approaches, i.e., Classification and Regression in order to determine which of the two would be more accurate to make confirmation time prediction in the Ethereum blockchain. More specifically, we explore Naïve Bayes classifier, Random Forest classifier and Multilayer Perceptron classifier for the classification approach. Since most transactions in the network are confirmed well within the average confirmation time of two block confirmations or 15 seconds, we also discuss ways to tackle the skewed dataset problem encountered in case of the classification approach. We also aim to compare the predictive accuracy of two machine learning regression models- Random Forest Regressor and Multilayer Perceptron against previously proposed statistical regression models under a set evaluation criterion; the objective is to determine whether machine learning offers a more accurate predictive model than conventional statistical models.