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Probability and Risk Analysis

Probability and Risk Analysis
Author: Igor Rychlik
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2006-10-07
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540395210

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This text presents notions and ideas at the foundations of a statistical treatment of risks. The focus is on statistical applications within the field of engineering risk and safety analysis. Coverage includes Bayesian methods. Such knowledge facilitates the understanding of the influence of random phenomena and gives a deeper understanding of the role of probability in risk analysis. The text is written for students who have studied elementary undergraduate courses in engineering mathematics, perhaps including a minor course in statistics. This book differs from typical textbooks in its verbal approach to many explanations and examples.


Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment
Author: Marvin Rausand
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 784
Release: 2020-03-31
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119377234

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Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.


An Introduction to the Basics of Reliability and Risk Analysis

An Introduction to the Basics of Reliability and Risk Analysis
Author: Enrico Zio
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 237
Release: 2007
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9812706399

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The necessity of expertise for tackling the complicated and multidisciplinary issues of safety and risk has slowly permeated into all engineering applications so that risk analysis and management has gained a relevant role, both as a tool in support of plant design and as an indispensable means for emergency planning in accidental situations. This entails the acquisition of appropriate reliability modeling and risk analysis tools to complement the basic and specific engineering knowledge for the technological area of application.Aimed at providing an organic view of the subject, this book provides an introduction to the principal concepts and issues related to the safety of modern industrial activities. It also illustrates the classical techniques for reliability analysis and risk assessment used in current practice.


Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis
Author: David Vose
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 754
Release: 2008-04-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470512849

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Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.


Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis

Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis
Author: James Robert Evans
Publisher:
Total Pages: 416
Release: 2002
Genre: Business
ISBN:

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Simulation fundamentals : Introduction to Simulation - Simulation Using Excel - Probability and Statistics in Simulation - Simulation in risk analysis : Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball - Applications of Risk Analysis - Building System Simulation Models - Systems simulation : Output Analysis and Experimentation for Systems Simulation - Systems Simulation Using ProcessModel - Applications of Systems Simulation - Extensions of simulation : Simulation in Forecasting and Optimization.


Portfolio Risk Analysis

Portfolio Risk Analysis
Author: Gregory Connor
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2010-03-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400835291

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Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.


Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice

Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice
Author: Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2004-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080516335

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The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel


The Science of Risk Analysis

The Science of Risk Analysis
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 316
Release: 2019-06-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0429642725

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This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.


Risk Assessment of Chemicals: An Introduction

Risk Assessment of Chemicals: An Introduction
Author: C.J. van Leeuwen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 386
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9401585202

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In recent years many developments have taken place in promote co-operation between governments and other the field of risk assessment of chemicals. Many reports parties involved in chemical safety and to provide policy have been published by national authorities, industries guidance with emphasis on regional and subregional co and scientific researchers as well as by international bod operation. The Inter-Organization Programme for the ies such as the European Union, the Organization of Sound Management of Chemicals (IOMC) was estab Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and lished in 1995 and provides a mechanism for the six par the joint International Programme on Chemical Safety ticipating organizations (UNEP, ILO, FAO, UNIDO,WHO (IPCS) of the World Health Organization (WHO), the and OECD) to better co-ordinate policies and activities in International Labour Organization (lLO), and the United the field of chemical risk management. Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The present book is an introduction to risk assessment of The development and international harmonization of risk chemicals. It contains basic background information on assessment methods is an important challenge. In sources, emissions, distribution and fate processes for Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on exposure estimation. It includes dose-effects estimation Environment and Development (UNCED), chapter 19 is for both human health related toxicology and ecotoxicol entirely devoted to the management of chemicals. For ogy as well as information on estimation methodologies. one of its recommendations, i. e.