After The Boom Commodity Prices And Economic Growth In Latin America And The Caribbean PDF Download
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| Author | : Bertrand Gruss |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2014-08-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484330773 |
Download After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
| Author | : Jorge Thompson Araujo |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 175 |
| Release | : 2016-11-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464806594 |
Download Beyond Commodities Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Beyond Commodities shows that Latin America and the Caribbean’s growth performance over the last decade cannot be reduced to the commodity boom: growth-promoting reforms that strengthened financial development, increased trade openness and improved infrastructure development also played a significant role and can continue doing so. Based on the econometric analysis of panel data from the 1970-2010 period for 126 countries, the study shows that, while the commodity boom facilitated growth in most of the region, it did not determine it. Domestic pro-growth policies and the maintenance of a sound macro-fiscal framework played a central role in explaining the region’s good performance during last decade. It also shows that new growth “stars†? such as Panama, Peru, Colombia and the Dominican Republic emerged during this period. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. Finally, with the worsening of external conditions, the authors conclude that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have no choice but to turn their attention to domestic drivers to keep growth going, as the structural reforms agenda remains unfinished.
| Author | : Gary Linden |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 54 |
| Release | : 1993 |
| Genre | : Caribbean Area |
| ISBN | : |
Download Depressed Commodity Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Norman Loayza |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 169 |
| Release | : 2005-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0821360914 |
Download Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.
| Author | : Inter American Development Bank |
| Publisher | : Inter-American Development Bank |
| Total Pages | : 75 |
| Release | : 2011-03-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download One Region, Two Speeds? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The aftermath of the global financial crisis has reshaped world growth and demand patterns, leading to a two-speed recovery, with slow growth in industrial countries and fast growth in emerging markets. This new global scenario is defining a constellation of global macroeconomic conditions that has very different implications for subsets of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report conveys three key messages: first, in this new global economic environment, key structural characteristics of Latin American and Caribbean countries are defining two quite different regional clusters in terms of opportunities and challenges ahead. Second, substantial changes in trade and capital flow patterns, as well as in the international financial architecture, are already taking place and will impact the regional clusters in different ways. Third, economic policy design will have to accommodate these differences in order to ensure widespread and stable growth.
| Author | : Bertrand Gruss |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2014-08-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498363512 |
Download After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
| Author | : Emily Sinnott |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 82 |
| Release | : 2010-01-01 |
| Genre | : BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |
| ISBN | : 9780821384824 |
Download Natural Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"The question of how to treat commodity production and how to manage recurrent cycles of booms and busts has always been a challenge for policymakers in commodity-dependent countries, including many in the LAC region. These challenges have led to allegations of a "commodity curse'' that retards development in these countries, but as of yet, there is no consensus as to whether such a curse exists, and if so, how can negative effects be minimized. This book contributes to this debate. Much of the report is focused on an examination of specific channels through which commodity dependence may affect the economic and institutional development of countries. This includes broadly 4 sets of concerns: one set dealing with the direct economic effects of commodity dependence and the implications for long-term growth; one dealing with the interactions between commodity production and the rents it generates on the one hand, and a country's institutions on the other; a third dealing with the macroeconomic challenges of managing the volatility of revenue flows, including the distributional implications at the household level posed by cyclicality of social spending; and a final set associated with potential negative environmental and social impacts. The book finds that some commonly accepted negative effects of dependence on natural resources are largely myths, while some are realities. But all can be managed, and the book draws on the best available information in existing literature as well as original analysis to provide practical advice on how to do so. It also presents descriptive facts and analysis of the impacts in LAC of the recent commodity boom, helping the reader understand the implications for the region's development and policies. It should be of great interest to policy-makers and analysts, as well as laypersons interested in the economics of commodity markets and their role in economic development."
| Author | : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 123 |
| Release | : 2021-04-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484326091 |
Download Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
| Author | : Fernando Blanco |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 198 |
| Release | : 2020-10-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 146481581X |
Download Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Following the collapse of commodity prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2014-15, many countries in the region were unable to cushion the impact of the shock in order to experience a more gradual adjustment, to a large extent because they had not built adequate fiscal buffers during the commodities’ windfall from 2010-14. Many LAC countries entered 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis in an even more difficult position, with rising debt and limited fiscal space to smooth the negative impacts of the pandemic and adequately support their economies. Fiscal policy in most LAC countries has been procyclical. Public expenditure and debt levels have expanded in good times and contracted in severe downswings due to insufficient fiscal buffers, making crises deeper. Fiscal rules represent a promising policy option for these and other economies. If well-designed and implemented, they can help build buffers during periods of strong economic performance that will be available during rainy days to smooth economic shocks. This book—which was prepared before the COVID-19 crisis—reviews the performance and implementation of different fiscal rules in the region and world. It provides analytical and practical criteria for policy makers for the design, establishment, and feasible implementation of fiscal rules based on each country's business cycle features, external characteristics, type of shocks faced, initial fiscal conditions, technical and institutional capacities, and political context. While establishing new fiscal rules would not help to attenuate the immediate effects of this pandemic crisis, higher debt levels in the aftermath of COVID-19 will demand rebuilding better and stronger institutional frameworks of fiscal policy in LAC and emerging economies globally. Having stronger fiscal mechanisms that include fiscal rules can help countries prepare for the next crisis and should be on the front burner for policy makers in coming years. The findings and lessons discussed apply to economies of different sizes, with some differences under certain scenarios in terms of the technical design and criteria needed for implementation. In this book, policy makers will find that fiscal rules, if tailored to country characteristics, can work and be an essential fiscal tool for larger and particularly smaller economies.
| Author | : Leandro Medina |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2010-08-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1455202266 |
Download The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.
