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After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2021-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513587900

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.


Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics

Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
Author: Johannes Emmerling
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2021-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513582356

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COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.


Global Economic Prospects, June 2020

Global Economic Prospects, June 2020
Author: World Bank Group
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2020-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815801

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The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.


Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features

Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features
Author: Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2021-07-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513583794

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To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita).


Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 339
Release: 2021-08-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464816662

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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.


Productivity and the Pandemic

Productivity and the Pandemic
Author: Philip McCann
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2021-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1800374607

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This forward-thinking book examines the potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on productivity. Productivity and the Pandemic features 21 chapters authored by 46 experts, examining different aspects of how the pandemic is likely to impact on the economy, society and governance in the medium- and long-term. Drawing on a range of empirical evidence, analytical arguments and new conceptual insights, the book challenges our thinking on many dimensions. With a keen focus on place, firms, production factors and institutions, the chapters highlight how the pre-existing challenges to productivity have been variously exacerbated and mitigated by the pandemic and points out ways forward for appropriate policy thinking in response to the crisis.


Global Productivity

Global Productivity
Author: Alistair Dieppe
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 552
Release: 2021-06-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464816093

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The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD


The Economics of COVID-19

The Economics of COVID-19
Author: Moosa, Imad A.
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2021-11-16
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 1800377223

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This timely book explores the neglected risk in the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic, illustrating the ways in which four decades of neoliberal economic and public policy has eroded the functional capacity of states to handle catastrophic events.


Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic

Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic
Author: László Mátyás
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 610
Release: 2022-03-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030939634

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This edited volume examines the development path of eight Central and Eastern European countries with an overlapping historical background that joined the European Union between 2004 and 2013, and identifies the main similarities and differences between the countries concerned. Based on wide comparative data analysis of Bulgaria, Croatia, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia, each chapter in the volume provides detailed information about the state of the economy in a specific area preceding the pandemic shock. The book offers a detailed snapshot of the state of the different areas of the economy, starting from the time when the countries concerned came out of the 2008 financial crisis, up to the date when COVID-19 hit. Further, each chapter analyzes the effects of this unprecedented shock on a particular field, which is followed by highlighting the main problems the countries are facing at present and in the near future, together with identifying the available policy options. Finally, before concluding and making general and country-specific policy recommendations, some thoughts will be given to longer-term prospects. More specifically, the question of how the subject area could contribute to avoiding the "middle-income-trap" that this region may be facing will be addressed. The comprehensive approach makes this volume a must-read for scholars and students of economics, as well as policy decision-makers in Europe, interested in a better understanding of the region's economic development.


Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand
Author: Mr.Geoffrey J Bannister
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2020-12-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781513563282

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While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.