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| Author | : Michael Rockinger |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : Stock exchanges |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Michael Rockinger |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper introduces a model, based on the Kalman filter framework, which allows for latent factors, time varying parameters, and a general GARCH structure for the residuals, extending the Bekaert and Harvey (1997) model. With this extension it is possible to test if an emerging stock market becomes more efficient over time and more integrated with other already established markets. We apply this models to the Czech, Polish, Hungarian, and Russian stock markets. We use data at daily frequency running from April 7th 1994 to July 10th 1997. We show that those markets have a rather heterogeneous pattern with regard to seasonalities and exhibit significant asymmetric GARCH effects where bad news generate greater volatility. In Hungary good news, instead, generate greater volatility leads us to formulate a liquidity hypothesis. A latent factor captures macroeconomic expectations. Concerning predictability, measured with time varying autocorrelations, Hungary reached efficiency before 1994. Russia shows signs of ongoing convergence towards efficiency. For Poland and the Czech Republic we find no improvements. With regard to market integration there is evidence that the importance of Germany has changed over time for all markets. Shocks in the UK are positively related to the Czech and Polish market but neither with the Russian nor the Hungarian ones. Shocks in the US have no impact on these markets but Russia. A strong negative correlation between Russia and the US and Germany tends to disappear.
| Author | : Peng Huang (Ph. D.) |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 208 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : Foreign exchange rates |
| ISBN | : |
This dissertation focuses on applying time-varying-parameter models to the field of financial and monetary economics. The first two essays analyze the cross-sectional returns on the U.S. stock market by emphasizing the dynamics of risk loadings. The third essay studies the impact of a tight monetary policy on weak currencies during financial crises by examining the time-varying relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. Motivated by the pricing errors found in small size and low book-to-market ratio portfolios in the Fama-French three-factor model, the first essay proposes a time-varying four-factor model. As small size and low book-to-market ratio firms are more sensitive to the risk related to innovations in the discount rate, the model incorporates a new risk factor to capture the information about the discount-rate risk for which the Fama-French three factors cannot fully account. In addition, the investors' learning process mimicked by the Kalman filter procedure is used to model the evolution of risk loadings. The results indicate that the model outperforms the Fama-French three-factor model in explaining the cross-sectional returns by substantially reducing pricing errors. The second essay analyzes the risk-return relationship in a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with a time-varying beta estimated by adaptive least squares (ALS) based on Kalman foundations. The results show the presence of a significant and positive risk-return relationship in the up market and the presence of a significant and negative risk-return relationship in the down market. In comparison with the model that assumes a constant beta, the CAMP with a time-varying beta reduces unexplained returns and improves the accuracy of the estimated risk-return relationship. The third essay investigates the use of interest rates as a monetary instrument to stabilize exchange rates in the Asian financial crisis. Since previous studies suggest that the interest-exchange rate relationship may vary within, or across, regimes, a time-varying-parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) disturbances is used to estimate the impact of raising interest rates on exchange rates. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in interest rates leads to currency depreciation during certain periods of financial crises.
| Author | : Stephen Satchell |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 428 |
| Release | : 2011-02-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0080471420 |
Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
| Author | : John L. Knight |
| Publisher | : Butterworth-Heinemann |
| Total Pages | : 428 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780750655156 |
This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.
| Author | : Evžen Kočenda |
| Publisher | : Karolinum Press |
| Total Pages | : 220 |
| Release | : 2014-03-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 8024623153 |
This book presents the numerous tools for the econometric analysis of time series. The text is designed with emphasis on the practical application of theoretical tools. Accordingly, material is presented in a way that is easy to understand. In many cases intuitive explanation and understanding of the studied phenomena are offerd. Essential concepts are illustrated by clear-cut examples. The attention of readers is drawn to numerous applied works where the use of specific techniques is best illustrated. Such applications are chiefly connected with issues of recent economic transition and European integration. The outlined style of presentation makes the book also a rich source of references. The text is divided into four major sections. The first section, "The Nature of Time Series?, gives an introduction to time series analysis. The second section, "Difference Equations?, describes briefly the theory of difference equations with an emphasis on results that are important for time series econometrics. The third section, "Univariate Time Series?, presents the methods commonly used in univariate time series analysis, the analysis of time series of one single variable. The fourth section, "Multiple Time Series?, deals with time series models of multiple interrelated variables. Appendices contain an introduction to simulation techniques and statistical tables.
| Author | : Sabur Mollah |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 172 |
| Release | : 2016-02-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1137367547 |
Stock market integration between developing and emerging markets has numerous benefits for creating a global - yet stable - world economy. It increases competition and the efficiency of local markets, in turn reducing price volatility and the cost of capital among integrated markets. It also generates capital flows, which enhance financial stability and spur economic growth. At its core, stock market integration has an important role to play in both developing and emerging markets still reeling from the global financial crisis. Global Stock Market Integration analyzes the financial makeup of developing and emerging markets around the world, providing empirical insights into market integration, co-movements in price, crises, and efficiency linkages. Mobarek and Mollah argue that the relationship between market integration and market efficiency within developing and emerging countries is not the only measure necessary for effecting real financial growth. This work brings the review of theories and empirical research on the topic up-to-date and expands the existing literature with new perspectives on developed and emerging markets.
| Author | : R. Matousek |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 299 |
| Release | : 2015-12-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0230302211 |
This book provides a deep insight into the market changes and policy challenges that transition economies have undergone in the last twenty years. It not only comments on and evaluates the development of financial markets in transition economies, but also highlights the key obstacles to full integration of financial markets into the EU market.
| Author | : Bruno S. Sergi |
| Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 288 |
| Release | : 2018-11-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 178769397X |
Based on the 2017 conference "'New Reality' and Russian Markets" held at Harvard University, this book brings together world-renowned thinkers to offer the latest empirical research on recent financial risks, institutional policies, and financial stability.
| Author | : Akihiko Takahashi |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 231 |
| Release | : 2012-05-21 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9814407348 |
This book is the Proceedings of the International Workshop on Finance 2011, held in Kyoto in the summer of 2011 with the aim of exchanging new ideas in financial engineering among researchers from various countries from both academia and industry. The workshop was held as a successor to the Daiwa International Workshop (2004-2008), and the KIER-TMU International Workshop (2009-2010). This workshop was organized by the Center for Advanced Research in Finance (CARF), Graduate School of Economics, the University of Tokyo, and Graduate School of Social Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University — and co-organized by Life Risk Research Center, Doshisha University.The workshop serves as a bridge between academic researchers and practitioners. This book contains about fifteen papers, all refereed, representing the presentations at the workshop. The papers address state-of-the-art techniques in financial engineering.
