A Study On Empirical Analysis Of Price Discovery And Causality Between Nse Spot And Future Market In India PDF Download
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| Author | : Jaheer Mukthar |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 21 |
| Release | : 2013 |
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| ISBN | : |
Download A Study on Empirical Analysis of Price Discovery and Causality Between NSE Spot and Future Market in India Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The temporal relation between stock index and Index futures has been and continues to be of interest of regulators, academicians and practitioners alike for a number of reasons such as market efficiency volatility and arbitrage. In perfectly efficient markets profitable arbitrage should not exist as the price adjusts instantaneously and fully to new information.Considering the information exchange and price discovery rules of the future market, many theoretical as well as empirical attempts have been made and regulatory bodies, market makers, academicians and practitioners have unanimously have agreed upon the common notion that organized future market contain significant information for the prospective cash market price changes in the short run, irrespective of the fact that in the long run both market observe strong and stable co-movement. Price discovery is expected first take place in the future markets and then it transmitted to underlying cash market. (Pizzi et al; 1998). However, Wahab and Lashgari (1993), Chan and Lien (2001). Chen et al; (2002) Lin et al; (2002) Mukherjee and Mishra (2006), and Thomas (2006) have found contrary evidence suggesting that cash market serves as dominant market and future market behaves like satellite market. So there exists a dilemma. Thus this study seeks to analyse empirically the price discovery and causal relationship between spot and future market.
| Author | : Dr. Kedar Nath Mukherjee |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2005 |
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Download Information Flow and Price Comovements Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This study investigates how the comovement of stock price in both spot as well as derivative market depends upon the flow of information in those markets and how it varies over a period of time. The price comovements in both spot and futures market have been studied at the index level, industry level and also at the stock level. This study applies Engle and Granger's (Engle and Granger, 1987) test of causality and cointegration, and Geweke [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 76(1982) 304] measure of feedback to empirically investigate the hypothesis that there is instantaneous flow of information among spot and futures market and there is no such cause and effect relationship among the stock prices in those markets.We employ daily data for NIFTY spot index, NIFTY futures index, and also the daily prices of some selected stocks listed in both the spot as well as the derivative market, over a period from January 2002 to June 2004.It is found that both the spot and futures price series possess unit root and both of them are cointegrated in almost all the cases (i.e. at index level and also at stock level). But as far as the flow of information is concerned, it shows some mixed evidence. The direction in the flow of information from one market to another keeps changing over a periods of time. It varies also from one underlying stock to another.
| Author | : Vaishali Jain |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2020 |
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Download Empirical Evidence of the Causative Association Between Spot, Futures and Options Market Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore and provide evidence about the nature of short run causal relationship as well as the speed of adjustment towards long run equilibrium between cash and FAO markets in India as represented by National Stock Exchange. The study uses individual stocks for studying the underlying relationship.Design/Methodology: The paper makes use of the auto regressive distributed lag model to study the causal relationship between spot, futures and options markets. The study makes use of the 15-minute interval trades data for the purpose of analysis.Findings: The ARDL model shows a long run relationship between spot, futures and options (both call and put) prices but we do not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude the short run causal association between the variable except for call and put options.Practical Implications: The results indicate that derivative markets are not leading the spot market but spot market contributes towards price discovery in the FAO markets. Potential investors can take their positions and design their portfolio in the cash and FAO segments using the insights provided by this piece of work.Originality/Value: This paper is an original piece of work towards evidencing the causative association between spot, futures and options markets using individual securities. Matters pertaining to price discovery process in Indian financial markets are issues of interest for financial thinkers, traders, investors and financial analysts.
| Author | : Sarveshwar Inani |
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| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2016 |
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Download Intraday Price Discovery in Indian Stock Index Futures Market Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This research aims to revisit the price discovery relationship between spot and futures prices of Indian equity index S&P CNX Nifty, using neural network approach. This study uses minute-by-minute prices of 167 trading days ranging from January, 2015 to August, 2015 to gain fresh insights on price discovery. The results reveal that change in futures prices lead the change in spot prices in training and testing of our sample. Neural network is an advanced methodology which is more effective in capturing non-linear relationship between spot and futures prices. Therefore, the results of this study could be considered more reliable and more robust as compared to previous studies for Indian market. Mean absolute error of the results indicates that, incorporation of futures returns in modelling spot returns improves the model by 30.8%. Whereas, inclusion of spot returns in modelling futures returns improves the results by only 25.4%. Though bidirectional spillover effect is present between spot and futures returns, but the futures returns are more dominant and more efficient. Therefore, it could be concluded that futures market serves as price discovery vehicle.
| Author | : Kushankur Dey |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2011 |
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Download Price Discovery and Market Efficiency Revisited Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We have taken pepper as a commodity to explore the co-integrating vectors, nature/direction of causality, and subsequently, we try to model volatility spillover in Indian pepper futures and spot markets employing Johansen"s co-integration, VECM, Granger causality and variance decomposition tests. We draw inferences from the study that unidirectional causality has been observed in case of pepper futures market. However, the adjustment of innovations or shocks in futures market is relatively faster than that of spot markets. For volatility modelling, we have employed models with their specifications, namely, EGARCH (2,2), EGARCH (3,3), MGARCH (Diagonal VECH and BEKK) for both pepper"s spot and futures return-series. Study reveals that unidirectional spillover has been identified under EGARCH (2, 2) model and results obtained through EGARCH (3,3) model are not impressive. News impact curve depicts the steeper movement on the logarithmic conditional variance of futures and spot-return series, which is due to positive shocks rather than that of negative shocks. Conditional correlation seems to be dynamic in nature and the correlation between spot and futures returns of pepper has been witnessed the temporal changes.
| Author | : Rajni Kant Rajhans |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 8 |
| Release | : 2015 |
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Download Relationship Between Spot and Futures Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In developed financial markets, there is no dearth of literature on relationship between spot and future market. India, in the year 2000 introduced derivative market to provide risk mitigation mechanism to market participants. The present study concluded that there is no short-run relationship between Nifty 50 Index and Nifty 50 Futures Index while there is a long-run relationship between the two. The combined analysis of outputs of Granger Causality and Johansen co-integration provided a more rational justification and can be interpreted that possibly at a time of high volatile market when price discovery is not more on rational basis but rather on other spill-over, a short-run lead-lag relationship could not be observed between spot stock index and futures index. However, in long-run the volatility dies away and market returns back to fundamental factors and hence, there is evidence of long-run relationship between spot stock index and futures index.
| Author | : R. Iyer Harihara Sudhan |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 9 |
| Release | : 2015 |
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Download A Study on the Pricing Efficiency of Selected Single Stock Midcap Futures and Spot Market Prices in India Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The Objective of this paper is to examine the Lead lag Relationship between Midcap Spot and Futures prices with reference to the Midcap stocks traded in National stock exchange. The Purpose of the study is to ascertain the Price discovery function, which market sources the information rapidly. A sample of 5 stocks is chosen from the Midcap Nifty to conduct the analysis. Cross Correlation, Vector Auto Regression and Granger Causality test were deployed to identify the Short term and Long term relationship between the variables. The Analysis was conducted on the data obtained from NSE website from their inception to 31st December 2013. The study results confirm the existence of Lead of Futures in few stocks but lags in most of the stocks and it also indicates dimensions for future research.
| Author | : Saravanan A |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 25 |
| Release | : 2017 |
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Download An Empirical Analysis of the Interrelation Between Spot Market & Non-Deliverable Forward Market of USD/INR in the Pre- and Post-Currency Futures Era Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The main objective of this paper is to study whether the introduction of the currency futures had an impact of the interrelation and information flows between the INR-USD spot and offshore forward (i.e., non-deliverable forward) markets. The econometric models have been used in this study, and long-term equilibrium relationship is measured through Johansen Co-integration test and Granger causality test is employed measure the short-term relationship. The result of the co-integration test proves that there exists a significant long-term equilibrium relation between the USD-INR spot and NDF rates. Causality test confirms that there is bidirectional causality between the spot and the NDF market in Sub-period 1, whereas a unidirectional causality exists in the Sub-period 2. We adopt the augmented GARCH formulation to compare NDF and spot market. We find that before currency future was introduced there existed a mean and volatility spillover effect from the NDF to spot market and vice versa, i.e., both directions. But after the introduction of currency futures, however, the results reversed with unidirectional mean spillover effect only from the NDF to the spot market. Also, the volatility spillover effect exists only in the same direction. These findings suggest that there is information flows between NDF and spot markets, Hence it is concluded that introduction of currency future has changed the direction of the dynamic relation in these two markets.
| Author | : Vasantha Naik |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
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Download Lead-Lag Relationship and Price Discovery in Indian Commodity Derivatives and Spot Market Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This study examines the lead-lag relationship and price discovery process between spot and futures market of pepper in India by employing Johansen's cointegration test and the bivariate VECM-EGARCH(1, 1) models. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to check the stationarity of the price series. The study finds that spot market absorbs the information faster than futures market, and therefore, the former plays a significant role in the price discovery process.
| Author | : Sarveshwar Inani |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Price Discovery in Indian Stock Index Futures Market Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The purpose of this study is to revisit price discovery process in Indian stock market for spot and futures of S&P CNX Nifty, by using high-frequency data to gain fresh insights. The sample consists of high-frequency data for the period from January 2014 to August 2015. Stationarity and cointegration test results reveal that spot and futures prices are I(1) and cointegrated. Three different econometric methodologies - component share method of (Gonzalo and Granger, 1995), information share method of (Hasbrouck, 1995), and modified information share of (Lien and Shrestha, 2009) - have been employed to determine the extent of price discovery contribution by spot and futures markets. The results reveal that futures market is performing its price discovery function. These results support the notion that futures market in more efficient vis-à-vis spot market in India. Price discovery is a main function of futures market and has implications for asset pricing, portfolio allocation, investment strategy formation, and market efficiency. This study might be helpful for regulators and policymakers to form market structure policies and guidelines for equity markets.
