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A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation

A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation
Author: Marc Ivaldi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642467350

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Using panel data of individual firms drawn from French surveys, a structural analysis is developed to study the formation of production plans and the rationality of expectations. The production decision of a firm is defined as the optimal solution of a dynamic stochastic optimization problem. The empirical work amounts to recovering the structural parameters characterizing the model of the firm from estimates of the derived decision rule. The preceding analysis of production plans is based on the assumption that firms are rational. To justify this assumption, direct tests offer evidence that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis may not be rejected for quantity variables.


Consumer Expectations

Consumer Expectations
Author: Richard Thomas Curtin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 365
Release: 2019-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107004691

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Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.


Focal Points in Framed Games

Focal Points in Framed Games
Author: Andre Casajus
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 142
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642511120

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Go to, let us go down, and there confound their language, that they may not understand one another's speech. So the LORD scattered them abroad from thence upon the face of all the earth: and they left off to built the city. (Genesis 11.7-8) 1.1 Static Focal Points 1.1.1 Coordination In real life, people quite often face situations in which they prefer to act in the same way, but they are not particular about the concrete way of acting. Some examples are given below: Credit cards: Buyers want to possess the credit cards potential sellers do accept. Also, sellers wish to have contracted the credit card company the credit cards of which potential customers usually carry along. For both, basically, it is all the same which credit card this is. What matters is that both choices coincide. Communication, information transmission: The transmission of in formation requires that the signals used have the same meaning to both the sender and the receiver. But it is inessential which signal has a certain mean ing. In verbal communication, this basically means that the people involved use the same (natural) language, though even then some ambiguities remain. Things are a bit more difficult for non-verbal communication, for example data transmission between computers-both sides have to use the same or compatible protocols. Again, what matters is the protocols to be the same for both sides.


A Macroeconomic Model of West German Unemployment

A Macroeconomic Model of West German Unemployment
Author: Michael Reutter
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 133
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642181597

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This book was accepted in 1999 as doctoral thesis (Dr. oec. publ. ) by the faculty of economics of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat in Munich. It won the dissertation price of the Alumni-Club of the economics faculty in the academic year 2000. Financial assistance by the German Research Asso ciation (DFG) for printing costs is gratefully acknowledged. I have to thank the people behind the B\'IF,X-project, in particular Donald Knuth and Leslie Lamport, for their wonderful typesetting program. The supervisors of my thesis were Prof. Dr. G. Flaig and Prof. Dr. D. Marin. I would like thank both for their thorough reading of the book and their ideas and critical remarks. lowe much gratitude to my academic teacher Prof. Dr. G. Flaig for many insightful conversations about modern time series econometrics, asymptotic theory and data problems. His empha sis on clear theory combined with sound econometric methods formed my personal ideal of how to do applied economics. After he left the university in 1998I had the opportunity to continue my work at the Center for Economic Studies. Prof. Dr. H. -W. Sinn and my new colleaguesat CES provided a stim ulating environment for the completion of my dissertation. Finally, I want to thank my parents, my sister and my friends for being there and sharing my cheers and worries. Munich, October 2000 Michael Reutter Our main concern in philosophy and in science should be the search fortruth. Justification is not an aim; and brilliance and cleverness as such are boring.


Design of Master Agreements for OTC Derivatives

Design of Master Agreements for OTC Derivatives
Author: Dietmar Franzen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 183
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642569323

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I first came across the issue of derivatives documentation when writing my diploma thesis on measuring the credit risk ofOTC derivatives while I was an economics student at the University of Bonn. Despite the fact that security design has been an area of research in economics for many years and despite the widespread use of derivatives documentation in financial practice, the task of designing contracts for derivatives transactions has not been dealt with in financial theory. The one thing that aroused my curiosity was that two parties with usually opposing interests, namely banking supervisors and the banking industry's lobby, unanimously endorse the use ofcertain provisions in standardized contracts called master agreements. Do these provisions increase the ex ante efficiency of contracts for all parties involved? I actually began my research expecting to find support for the widely held beliefs about the efficiency or inefficiency of certain provisions and was sur prised to obtain results that contradicted the conventional wisdom. I would strongly advise against using these results in any political debate on deriva tives documentation. They were obtained within a highly stylized model with some restrictive assumptions. This work should rather be seen as an attempt to formalize the discussion on derivatives documentation and to challenge the notion that certain provisions are generally ex ante efficient. It is also an invitation to all those advocating the use of certain provisions in master agreements to formalize their arguments and to explain the economic ratio nale behind these provisions.


Non-Cooperative Planning Theory

Non-Cooperative Planning Theory
Author: Peter Bogetoft
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3642486363

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Planning in a general sense is concerned with the design of communication and decision making mechanisms in organizations where information and choice are decentralized. Non-cooperative planning theory as it is developed in this book treats the incentive aspects hereof. It stresses how strategic behavior and opportunism may impede planning, and how this can be coped with via the organization of communication and decision making, the design of information and control systems, and the development of incentive schemes. In particular, the book contains a thorough investigation of incentive provision in information production.


Triangulations and Simplicial Methods

Triangulations and Simplicial Methods
Author: Chuangyin Dang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 199
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642487750

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As a new type of technique, simplicial methods have yielded extremely important contributions toward solutions of a system of nonlinear equations. Theoretical investigations and numerical tests have shown that the performance of simplicial methods depends critically on the triangulations underlying them. This monograph describes some recent developments in triangulations and simplicial methods. It includes the D1-triangulation and its applications to simplicial methods. As a result, efficiency of simplicial methods has been improved significantly. Thus more effective simplicial methods have been developed.


Imperfect General Equilibrium

Imperfect General Equilibrium
Author: Pier C. Nicola
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642483992

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Economic theory of the last fifty years has been dominated by the paradigm of General Equilibrium Theory, based on the scientific work of Walras-Pareto-Cassel-Wald-Hicks-Arrow-De breu-McKenzie. Some of its grounding assumptions are: all prices are fully flexible; an auctioneer appropriately manipulates all prices according to the law of supply and demand; every con sumer has only one budget constraint; all agents are perfectly informed; no actions are taken by agents before a vector of prices has been found such that all markets clear. Indeed, when all markets clear every agent can implement her/his chosen (opti mal) action and nobody is urged to change his/her decisions. Under these assumptions it is generally said that in a (one pe riod, competitive) general equilibrium model there is no place for money. The present monograph takes general equilibrium as the ba sis on which to build the model presented. But its first aim is to completely dispense with the Walrasian auctioneer by giving firms the task of choosing their output price~ period after period.


Research and Practice in Multiple Criteria Decision Making

Research and Practice in Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 584
Release: 2000-05-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783540672661

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During the past two decades, the consideration of mUltiple objectives in modeling and decision making has grown by leaps and bounds. The nineties in particular have seen the emphasis shift from the dominance of single-objective modeling and optimization toward an emphasis on multiple objectives. The proceedings of this Conference epitomize these evolutionary changes and contribute to the important role that the tield of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) now plays in planning, design, operational, management, and policy decisions. Of special interest are the contributions of MCDM to manufacturing engineering. For example, it has recently been recognized that optimal, single-objective solutions have often been pursued at the expense of the much broader applicability of designs and solutions that satisfy multiple objectives. In particular, the theme (MCDM and Its Worldwide Role in Risk-Based Decision Making) of the XIVth International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making (Charlottesville, Virginia, USA, June 8-12, 1998) represents the growing importance of risk-cost-benefit analysis in decision making and in engineering design and manufacturing. In such systems, minimizing the of rare and extreme events emerges as an essential objective that risk complements the minimization of the traditional expected value of risk, along with the objectives attached to cost and performance. These proceedings include forty-five papers that were presented at the Conference. A variety of techniques have been proposed for solving multiple criteria decision-making problems. The emphasis and style of the different techniques largely reflect the fields of expertise of their developers.