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International Financial Contagion

International Financial Contagion
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 461
Release: 2013-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475733143

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No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.


Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1

Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1
Author: E. Porras
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 303
Release: 2016-06-29
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1137358769

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Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.


Rational Expectations

Rational Expectations
Author: Steven M. Sheffrin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 204
Release: 1996-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521479394

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This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.


Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 2

Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 2
Author: Eva R. Porras
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 283
Release: 2017-10-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137524421

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This book focuses on extending the models and theories (from a mathematical/statistical point of view) which were introduced in the first volume to a more technical level. Where volume I provided an introduction to the mathematics of bubbles and contagion, volume II digs far more deeply and widely into the modeling aspects.


Learning in International Markets and a Rational Expectation Approach to the Contagion Puzzle

Learning in International Markets and a Rational Expectation Approach to the Contagion Puzzle
Author: Steven Wei Ho
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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I develop a general equilibrium model in which agents from two countries do not observe directly the long-run growth prospects of their economies. Instead, the agents rationally learn the hidden components through the Kalman filter applied to international consumption data. Learning endogenously produces: (i) a rational explanation of international contagion phenomenon, defined as changes in one country's asset prices in response to foreign news, that occurs in the absence of domestic news, (ii) large and time-varying international equity risk premia, and (iii) a resolution of the forward premium anomaly,defined as the tendency of high interest rate currencies to appreciate. Model-simulated moments match previous empirical findings of key movements studied in the international finance literature. Furthermore, by applying the theory to actual data during the Asian Financial Crisis, the simulated Hong Kong stock market index can quantitatively and qualitatively match data, including a sharp downturn that can be attributed to contagion from Thailand due to the learning mechanism.


The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion
Author: Prakash Kannan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2009
Genre: Financial crises
ISBN:

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The 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new channel of contagion where the degree of anticipation of crises, through its impact on investor uncertainty, determines the occurrence of contagion. Incidences of surprise crises lead investors to doubt the accuracy of their information gathering technology, which endogenously increases the probability of crises elsewhere. Anticipated crisis, instead, have the opposite effect. Importantly, this channel is empirically shown to have an independent effect beyond other contagion channels.


International Financial Architecture

International Financial Architecture
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2003
Genre: International finance
ISBN:

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Annotation This title can be previewed in Google Books - http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN9789056292669.


Information in Financial Markets

Information in Financial Markets
Author: Anat R. Admati
Publisher:
Total Pages: 17
Release: 1985
Genre: Capital market
ISBN:

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Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets

Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
Author: Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1982
Genre: Capital assets pricing model
ISBN:

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This paper investigates the nature and the presence of bubbles in financial markets. Are bubbles consistent with rationality? If they are, do they, like Ponzi games, require the presence of new players forever? Do they imply impossible events in finite time, such as negative prices? Do they need to go on forever to be rational? Can they have real effects? These are some of the questions asked in the first three sections. The general conclusion is that bubbles, in many markets, are consistent with rationality, that phenomena such as runaway asset prices and market crashes are consistent with rational bubbles. In the last two sections, we consider whether the presence of bubbles in a particular market can be detected statistically. The task is much easier if there are data on both prices and returns. In this case, as shown by Shiller and Singleton, the hypothesis of no bubble implies restrictions on their joint distribution and can be tested. In markets in which returns are difficult to observe, possibly because of a nonpecuniary component, such as gold, the task is more difficult. We consider the use of both "runs tests" and "tail tests" and conclude that they give circumstantial evidence at best.