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A Quasi-Bounded Target Zone Model - Theory and Application to Hong Kong Dollar

A Quasi-Bounded Target Zone Model - Theory and Application to Hong Kong Dollar
Author: Chi-Fai Lo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper proposes a quasi-bounded process for exchange rate dynamics within a target zone, consistent with a credible exchange rate band in which the exchange rate cannot breach the strong-side limit while the weak-side limit is only accessible under restricted conditions of the relationship between the parameters of the drift term and stochastic part of the process. The empirical results suggest that this model can describe the dynamics of the Hong Kong dollar, which is operated under a target-zone system, where the drifting force is an increasing function of foreign reserves.


A Soft Edge Target Zone Model

A Soft Edge Target Zone Model
Author: Michael Funke
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Hong Kong's currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.


Trauma To Triumph: Rising From The Ashes Of The Asian Financial Crisis

Trauma To Triumph: Rising From The Ashes Of The Asian Financial Crisis
Author: Hoe Ee Khor
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 950
Release: 2022-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811253579

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This book takes stock of and analyzes the events during the Asian financial crisis (AFC) and subsequent developments, including the global financial crisis (GFC), that led to the development of the ASEAN+3 regional financial cooperation framework and the establishment of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office. The book is the first of its kind to compile comprehensive recollections of the major players during the AFC and the GFC, including country-level narratives on the causes and developments of the crises, and measures to overcome them. The book not only presents an analytical and deeper examination of country experiences during both crises, but also assesses the two crises and covers the lessons learnt from the crises, particularly with a focus on the development of regional financial cooperation. The book concludes with regional financial cooperation in retrospect, aiming to catalyze further discussions on the direction of the region's financial cooperation.


Off-the-record Target Zones

Off-the-record Target Zones
Author: Yu-Fu Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN: 9789524626811

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Iterative Methods in Combinatorial Optimization

Iterative Methods in Combinatorial Optimization
Author: Lap Chi Lau
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 255
Release: 2011-04-18
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1139499394

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With the advent of approximation algorithms for NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems, several techniques from exact optimization such as the primal-dual method have proven their staying power and versatility. This book describes a simple and powerful method that is iterative in essence and similarly useful in a variety of settings for exact and approximate optimization. The authors highlight the commonality and uses of this method to prove a variety of classical polyhedral results on matchings, trees, matroids and flows. The presentation style is elementary enough to be accessible to anyone with exposure to basic linear algebra and graph theory, making the book suitable for introductory courses in combinatorial optimization at the upper undergraduate and beginning graduate levels. Discussions of advanced applications illustrate their potential for future application in research in approximation algorithms.


Regions and Powers

Regions and Powers
Author: Barry Buzan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 598
Release: 2003-12-04
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9780521891110

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This book develops the idea that since decolonisation, regional patterns of security have become more prominent in international politics. The authors combine an operational theory of regional security with an empirical application across the whole of the international system. Individual chapters cover Africa, the Balkans, CIS Europe, East Asia, EU Europe, the Middle East, North America, South America, and South Asia. The main focus is on the post-Cold War period, but the history of each regional security complex is traced back to its beginnings. By relating the regional dynamics of security to current debates about the global power structure, the authors unfold a distinctive interpretation of post-Cold War international security, avoiding both the extreme oversimplifications of the unipolar view, and the extreme deterritorialisations of many globalist visions of a new world disorder. Their framework brings out the radical diversity of security dynamics in different parts of the world.


Target Zones and Exchange Rates

Target Zones and Exchange Rates
Author: Geert Bekaert
Publisher:
Total Pages: 64
Release: 1996
Genre: Foreign exchange administration
ISBN:

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In this paper we develop an empirical model of exchange rates in a target zone. The model is general enough to nest most theoretical and empirical models in the existing literature. We find evidence of two types of jumps in exchange rates. Realignment jumps are those that are associated with the periodic realignments of the target zone and within-the-band jumps are those that can be accommodated within the current target zone. The exchange rate may jump outside the current target zone band, in the case of a realignment, but when no jump occurs the target zone is credible (there is zero probability of a realignment) and the exchange rate must stay within the band. We incorporate jumps, in general, by conditioning the distribution of exchange rate changes on a jump variable where the probability and size of a jump vary over time as a function of financial and macroeconomic variables. With this more general model, we revisit the empirical evidence from the European Monetary System regarding the conditional distribution of exchange rate changes, the credibility of the system, and the size of the foreign exchange risk premia. In contrast to some previous findings, we conclude that the FF/DM rate exhibits considerable non-linearities, realignments are predictable and the credibility of the system did not increase after 1987. Moreover, our model implies that the foreign exchange risk premium becomes large during speculative crises. A comparison with the Deutschemark/Dollar rate suggests that an explicit target zone does have a noticeable effect on the time-series behavior of exchange rates.


An Engine, Not a Camera

An Engine, Not a Camera
Author: Donald MacKenzie
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 782
Release: 2008-08-29
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0262250047

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In An Engine, Not a Camera, Donald MacKenzie argues that the emergence of modern economic theories of finance affected financial markets in fundamental ways. These new, Nobel Prize-winning theories, based on elegant mathematical models of markets, were not simply external analyses but intrinsic parts of economic processes. Paraphrasing Milton Friedman, MacKenzie says that economic models are an engine of inquiry rather than a camera to reproduce empirical facts. More than that, the emergence of an authoritative theory of financial markets altered those markets fundamentally. For example, in 1970, there was almost no trading in financial derivatives such as "futures." By June of 2004, derivatives contracts totaling $273 trillion were outstanding worldwide. MacKenzie suggests that this growth could never have happened without the development of theories that gave derivatives legitimacy and explained their complexities. MacKenzie examines the role played by finance theory in the two most serious crises to hit the world's financial markets in recent years: the stock market crash of 1987 and the market turmoil that engulfed the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. He also looks at finance theory that is somewhat beyond the mainstream—chaos theorist Benoit Mandelbrot's model of "wild" randomness. MacKenzie's pioneering work in the social studies of finance will interest anyone who wants to understand how America's financial markets have grown into their current form.


Special Economic Zones in Africa

Special Economic Zones in Africa
Author: Thomas Farole
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2011-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821386395

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"This book, designed for policymakers, academics and researchers, and SEZ program practitioners, provides the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of SEZ programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the result of detailed surveys and case studies conducted during 2009 in ten developing countries, including six in Sub-Saharan Africa. The book provides quantitative evidence of the performance of SEZs, and of the factors which contribute to that performance, highlighting the critical importance not just of the SEZ itself but of the wider national investment climate in which it functions. It also provides a comprehensive guide to the key policy questions that confront governments establishing SEZ programs, including: if and when to launch an SEZ program, what form of SEZ is most appropriate, and how to go about implementing it. Among the most important findings from the study that is stressed in the book is the shift from traditional enclave models of zones to SEZs that are integrated ? with national trade and industrial strategies, with core trade and social infrastructure, with domestic suppliers, and with local labor markets.Although the book focuses primarily on the experience of Sub-Saharan Africa, its lessons will be applicable to developing countries around the world."


Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide

Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2019-04-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484398777

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The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time. This paper demonstrates that a subset of these tools can have a big effect in enabling deep negative rates with administratively small actions on the part of the central bank. To that end, we (i) survey approaches to enable deep negative rates discussed in the literature and present new approaches; (ii) establish how a subset of these approaches allows enabling negative rates while remaining at a minimum distance from the current paper currency policy and minimizing the political costs; (iii) discuss why standard transmission mechanisms from interest rates to aggregate demand are likely to remain unchanged in deep negative rate territory; and (iv) present communication tools that central banks can use both now and in the event to facilitate broader political acceptance of negative interest rate policy at the onset of the next serious recession.