Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate The 21st Centurys Global Energy Economy PDF Download

As the world faces growing economic and environmental challenges, the energy mix that fuels the global economy is undergoing rapid change. Yet how this change will evolve in the future is uncertain. What will be the sources of primary energy in twenty years? In fifty years? In different regions of the globe? How will this energy be utilized? Fossil energy currently supplies about ninety percent of the world's primary energy. In Japan this number is closer to eighty percent. It is clear that fossil energy will be a major supplier of global energy for some time to come, but what is not clear is the types of fossil energy and how it will be utilized. The degree to which the abundant supplies of fossil energy, especially coal, will continue to play a major role will depend on whether technology will provide safe, clean and affordable fuel for electricity and transportation. Technology will not only assist in finding more fossil energy in varying regions of the globe but, most importantly, will play a strong role in efficient utilization and in determining the cost of delivering that energy. Several important questions will have to be answered: (1) Will cost effective technologies be found to burn coal more cleanly? Can this be done with drastically reduced or no emitted carbon? (2) Can enough oil be found outside the Middle East to ensure more adequate and secure supplies to fuel the transportation and industrial needs? (3) Will the transportation sector, so heavily dependent on oil, be fueled on another source? (4) Can enough natural gas be assured from enough secure places to ensure investment in the utilization of this lowest-carbon fossil fuel? (5) What will these options cost in research and in the price of energy? The answers to these and other questions challenge leaders and researchers in the fossil energy industry. A World Energy Council (WEC) study of those technologies that might be key sheds some light on what might happen in terms of a wide range of possible scenarios. Also on what might be necessary in expenditure, time, and policies to help bring these technologies to market. This study should be helpful to energy executives in planning for future technologies, either as new ventures or as competition for existing technologies. The emphasis in this ongoing study is on what is possible from today's vantage, not what will happen--actual developments are unpredictable and it is, of course, impossible to foresee the course of actual technology development or economic growth. Nevertheless, it is possible to look at what could happen in a number of scenarios using (1) knowledge about current technologies and (2) their projected development, investment costs, and likely time to commercialization based on historical energy technology development. A comprehensive set of possible technologies was available from the WEC in conjunction with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and studies as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).