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EPRU Working Papers

EPRU Working Papers
Author: Niels Arne Dam
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

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Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks

Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks
Author: Jaime Guajardo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2008-04-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781451869477

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Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.


Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.


Open-economy Implications of Two Models of Business Fluctuations

Open-economy Implications of Two Models of Business Fluctuations
Author: Alan C. Stockman
Publisher:
Total Pages: 32
Release: 1984
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

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This paper shows how open-economy implications of alternative business-cycle models can be used to discriminate between those models. Open-economy versions of two well-known models are presented: a model with predetermined nominal wages and a model in which nominal disturbances are misperceived as real disturbances. In the former model applied to a small economy with flexible exchange rates, an unanticipated increase in the money supply increases output of both traded and nontraded goods, lowers the relative price of nontraded goods, and inducesa current-account surplus. In the latter model, an unperceived increase in the money supply increases output of nontraded goods but reduces output of traded goods, raises the relative price of nontraded goods, and induces a current-account deficit.


Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies

Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies
Author: Mr.Marco Airaudo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2012-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475546416

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We present an extensive analysis of the consequences for global equilibrium determinacy in flexible-price open economies of implementing active interest rate rules, i.e., monetary rules where the nominal interest rate responds more than proportionally to inflation. We show that conditions under which these rules generate aggregate instability by inducing liquidity traps, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics depend on specific characteristics of open economies. In particular, rules that respond to expected future inflation are more prone to induce endogenous cyclical and chaotic dynamics the more open the economy to trade.


Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics
Author: Andrew B. Abel
Publisher: Addison Wesley Longman
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1998
Genre: ABD- Ekonomik koşullar
ISBN: 9780201883336

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Part 1 Introduction Chapter 1 Introduction to Macroeconomics 1.1 What Macroeconomics Is About 1.2 What Macroeconomists Do 1.3 Why Macroeconomists Disagree Chapter 2 The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy 2.1 National Income Accounting: The Measurement of Production, Income, and Expenditure 2.2 Gross Domestic Product 2.3 Saving and Wealth 2.4 Real GDP, Price Indexes, and Inflation 2.5 Interest Rates Part 2 Long-Run Economic Performance Chapter 3 Productivity, Output, and Employment 3.1 How Much Does the Economy Produce? The Production Function 3.2 The Demand for Labor 3.3 The Supply of Labor 3.4 Labor Market Equilibrium 3.5 Unemployment 3.6 Relating Output and Unemployment: Okun's Law Chapter 4 Consumption, Saving, and Investment 4.1 Consumption and Saving 4.2 Investment 4.3 Goods Market Equilibrium Chapter 5 Saving and Investment in the Open Economy 5.1 Balance of Payments Accounting 5.2 Goods Market Equilibrium in an Open Economy 5.3 Saving and Investment in a Small Open Economy 5.4 Saving and Investment in Large Open Economies 5.5 Fiscal Policy and the Current Account Chapter 6 Long-Run Economic Growth 6.1 The Sources of Economic Growth 6.2 Growth Dynamics: The Solow Model 6.3 Government Policies to Raise Long-Run Living Standards Chapter 7 The Asset Market, Money, and Prices 7.1 What Is Money? 7.2 Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets 7.3 The Demand for Money 7.4 Asset Market Equilibrium 7.5 Money Growth and Inflation Part 3 Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Chapter 8 Business Cycles 8.1 What Is a Business Cycle? 8.2 The American Business Cycle: The Historical Record 8.3 Business Cycle Facts 8.4 Business Cycle Analysis: A Preview Chapter 9 The IS-LM/AD-AS Model: A General Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis 9.1 The FE Line: Equilibrium in the Labor Market 9.2 The IS Curve: Equilibrium in the Goods Market 9.3 The LM Curve: Asset Market Equilibrium 9.4 General Equilibrium in the Complete IS LM Model 9.5 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium 9.6 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Chapter 10 Classical Business Cycle Analysis: Market-Clearing Macroeconomics 10.1 Business Cycles in the Classical Model 10.2 Money in the Classical Model 10.3 The Misperceptions Theory and the Nonneutrality of Money Chapter 11 Keynesianism: The Macroeconomics of Wage and Price Rigidity 11.1 Real-Wage Rigidity 11.2 Price Stickiness 11.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Keynesian Model 11.4 The Keynesian Theory of Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Stabilization Part 4 Macroeconomic Policy: Its Environment and Institutions Chapter 12 Unemployment and Inflation 12.1 Unemployment and Inflation: Is There a Trade-Off? 12.2 The Problem of Unemployment 12.3 The Problem of Inflation Chapter 13 Exchange Rates, Business Cycles, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Open Economy 13.1 Exchange Rates 13.2 How Exchange Rates Are Determined: A Supply-and-Demand Analysis 13.3 The IS LM Model for an Open Economy 13.4 Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy with Flexible Exchange Rates 13.5 Fixed Exchange Rates Chapter 14 Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve System 14.1 Principles of Money Supply Determination 14.2 Monetary Control in the United States 14.3 The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Rules Versus Discretion Chapter 15 Government Spending and Its Financing 15.1 The Government Budget: Some Facts and Figures 15.2 Government Spending, Taxes, and the Macroeconomy 15.3 Government Deficits and Debt 15.4 Deficits and Inflation Appendix A Some Useful Analytical Tools.


Business Cycles: Theories, Evidence and Analysis

Business Cycles: Theories, Evidence and Analysis
Author: International Economic Association
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Total Pages: 496
Release: 1991-10-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The new classical revolution seems to have transformed macroeconomics into the theory of economic fluctuations. It is, in a sense, a return to the origins of macroeconomics as a discipline as fashioned by Hayek, Keynes and Lindahl. But the scope has shifted in the intervening five decades and more. It is this new scope - and the new tools that forge its expansion - that are surveyed and analysed in this volume.