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Using Market Reaction to Infer Persistence of Earnings Surprises

Using Market Reaction to Infer Persistence of Earnings Surprises
Author: Gia Chevis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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We measure the market's assessment of the information in a particular earnings surprise by calculating a firm- and time-specific earnings response coefficient (FTERC). We use the FTERC to infer the market's expectation of the persistence of unexpected earnings and also develop an interpretive framework. Examining the market's response to a particular earnings surprise - rather than whether it, on average, over- or underreacts - allows researchers to use the FTERC as a dependent variable (e.g. in a study of disclosure quality) or as a control when each response is unique (e.g. a firm before, during and after fraud). Our model implies seven classifications of expected persistence: growing, permanent, decaying, transitory, partially offsetting, offsetting, and subsuming. We find that approximately 1 in 4 earnings announcements results in an FTERC within the 'normal' permanent-to-transitory range; over 70% of expectation revisions are growing or subsuming.


Evidence that Capital Markets Learn from Academic Research

Evidence that Capital Markets Learn from Academic Research
Author: W. Bruce Johnson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

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We investigate the relation between earnings surprises and post-announcement stock returns for 1991-1997, and show that the profit opportunities previously associated with simple trading strategies designed to exploit the drift phenomenon have now been substantially eliminated. This profitability decline does not appear to be due to increased earnings quot;noisequot; from transitory items or to structural changes in the serial correlation of earnings surprises. The post-announcement drift persists where arbitrage costs are highest; that is, among small NYSE/AMEX firms, and among firms with little or no analyst following or with low stock prices. The evidence is consistent with the notion that investors used earnings surprise trading strategies to arbitrage the drift once the phenomenon had been well documented in academic research.


The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies

The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies
Author: Leonard Zacks
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2011-08-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118127765

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Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.


Confirming Dividend Changes and the Non-Monotonic Investor Revision of Earnings Persistence

Confirming Dividend Changes and the Non-Monotonic Investor Revision of Earnings Persistence
Author: Christian Müller
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 157
Release: 2013-12-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 365804473X

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The stylized facts that firms pay and investors react to dividends disregard dividend neutrality. Taking on the perspective that informational asymmetries are the central determinant for dividend value relevance, Christian Müller assumes that firm’s dividend decision conveys useful information to investors. He shows that investors use dividend changes to revise their a priori expectations about the persistence of a current earnings change. While his theoretical and empirical analyses generally imply that dividend changes constitute informative, but imperfect information signals, he further identifies situations in which they are substantial to investors. Christian Müller’s research comprehensively examines the informational role of dividend policy and provides new insights to the corresponding Bayesian investor learning process.


Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations

Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 125
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981627

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Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.


The Economics of Accounting

The Economics of Accounting
Author: Richard Moses Frankel
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 193
Release: 2024
Genre: Accounting
ISBN: 0197680763

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"In today's complex business landscape, understanding the economic roles of accounting is essential. The Economics of Accounting demystifies the subject in an eye-opening exploration of how accounting plays a vital role in driving business efficiency and creating value. Internally, accounting information acts as a linchpin, making contracts more effective and aiding managerial decisions when market prices are unavailable. By providing valuable insights, accounting helps bridge information gaps, enabling price discovery and reducing trading costs in capital market transactions. Throughout the book, our primary measure of efficiency is shareholder value. However, we also delve into discussions on regulatory, social, and contract efficiency. It's important to note that shareholder value maximization and stakeholder protection are not conflicting objectives. In fact, accounting information plays a pivotal role in fostering firms' commitment to stakeholder protection, leading to increased value creation for shareholders. Engaging and accessible, this book will enlighten readers on the transformative power of accounting in today's business landscape"--


Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2020-03-05
Genre: History
ISBN: 1839743050

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In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.


A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2007-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226531929

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A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.