Uncertainty Propagation And Importance Measure Assessment PDF Download
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| Author | : Enrico Zio |
| Publisher | : FonCSI |
| Total Pages | : 69 |
| Release | : 2013-12-14 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : |
Download Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
| Author | : Enrico Zio |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 62 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Risk Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Enrico Zio |
| Publisher | : FonCSI |
| Total Pages | : 61 |
| Release | : 2013-03-01 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : |
Download Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
| Author | : Christophe Simon |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 212 |
| Release | : 2018-01-19 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1119489342 |
Download Data Uncertainty and Important Measures Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.
| Author | : Ronald J. Adrian |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 585 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0521440084 |
Download Particle Image Velocimetry Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Particle image velocimetry, or PIV, refers to a class of methods used in experimental fluid mechanics to determine instantaneous fields of the vector velocity by measuring the displacements of numerous fine particles that accurately follow the motion of the fluid. Although the concept of measuring particle displacements is simple in essence, the factors that need to be addressed to design and implement PIV systems that achieve reliable, accurate, and fast measurements and to interpret the results are surprisingly numerous. The aim of this book is to analyze and explain them comprehensively.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 668 |
| Release | : 1994-01-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 030904894X |
Download Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
| Author | : Babak Ameli-Tehrani |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 212 |
| Release | : 1983 |
| Genre | : Risk |
| ISBN | : |
Download An Analytical Method for Uncertainty Propagation in Probabilistice Risk Assessment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Terje Aven |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 448 |
| Release | : 2024-09-12 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1040105882 |
Download Risk Science Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Risk science is becoming increasingly important as businesses, policymakers and public sector leaders are tasked with decision-making and investment using varying levels of knowledge and information. Risk Science: An Introduction explores the theory and practice of risk science, providing concepts and tools for understanding and acting under conditions of uncertainty. The chapters in this book cover the fundamental concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models for how to understand, assess, communicate, manage and govern risk. These topics are presented and examined in a way which details how they relate, for example, how to characterize and communicate risk with particular emphasis on reflecting uncertainties; how to distinguish risk perception and professional risk judgments; how to assess risk and guide decision-makers, especially for cases involving large uncertainties and value differences; and how to integrate risk assessment with resilience-based strategies. The text provides a variety of examples and case studies that relate to highly visible and relevant issues facing risk academics, practitioners and non-risk leaders who must make risk-related decisions. This revised and updated second edition features an entirely new chapter on the integrity and quality of risk studies, and dealing with misinformation in the context of risk. Presenting both the foundational and most recent advancements in the subject matter, this work particularly suits students of risk science courses at college and university level. The book also provides broader key reading for students and scholars in other domains, including business, engineering and public health.
| Author | : Terje Aven |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 225 |
| Release | : 2011-03-03 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1139496433 |
Download Quantitative Risk Assessment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.
| Author | : Etienne de Rocquigny |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 364 |
| Release | : 2008-09-15 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 0470770740 |
Download Uncertainty in Industrial Practice Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
