Three Essays On Risk Management And Irrigation Water Demand In Agriculture PDF Download

Both extensive (share of insured acres in total insurable acres) and intensive (coverage level choice) margin participation rates in the U.S. crop insurance program have increased due to generous subsidies. On a national scale, this program has been well rated to satisfy the actuarial fairness requirement by USDA Risk Management Agency. However, sizeable spatial heterogeneity remains across the Great Plains and Corn Belt regions. If subsidies were to be reduced in the future because of financial constraints, such heterogeneity might be detrimental to the sustainability of the crop insurance program. A central theme of this dissertation is to investigate how farmers make participation decisions when risk factors exist. In a separate but related line of work, this dissertation also explores the irrigation water usage in the Great Lakes region because farmers' irrigation behavior reflects their risk preferences and impacts their incentives for enrolling in the program. The dissertation consists of three essays on farmers' decisions regarding premium mispricing, basis risk, and irrigation water usage. The first essay proposes a novel resampling procedure to estimate farm-level actuarially fair premiums. The resampling procedure mainly contains two parts: (i) semi-parametric quantile regression; and (ii) rejection method. Many previous studies explore whether county-level mispricing exists based on the historical loss ratio records. However, we can identify farm-level mispricing by imputing actuarially fair premiums based on historical yield records, consistent with theory. We find that farmers with lower land quality cropland paid fewer premiums than they should, but a contrary case happens for farmers with higher land quality cropland. Empirical evidence shows farmers may be more concerned about mispricing than subsidy transfer. Regression results support a conclusion that such farm-level mispricing deters farmers' crop insurance demand. Our analysis sheds light on the policy-making that: (i) mispricing may be a substitution of subsidy so mitigating mispricing can maintain high participation while saving subsidies; and (ii) imputation of premiums based on historical yield records can apply.The second essay focuses on the impact of basis risk on participation rates in the U.S. crop insurance program. In recent years, basis risk has been increasingly recognized as an essential driver for deterring insurance uptake. Most research concentrates on index insurance contracts; however, few investigate the effect of mismatch between cash and futures markets on farmers' insurance decisions. We first build a conceptual model to show farmers' acreage response to basis risk within the expected utility framework. Next, we apply the Fractional Probit with Control Function for the empirical analysis and find that the effects of basis risk on participation rates are significantly negative for nearly all insurance contracts. Our analysis implies that: (i) to remove basis risk, revision for revenue contract may be considered; (ii) subsidy structure may be adjusted to be consistent with the underlying basis risk. The third essay investigates irrigation water usage in the Great Lakes region. Although the water conservation policy was implemented, there has been an upward trend in irrigation water demand from 2003 to 2018, including irrigated acres and total water usage. We employ firm-level irrigation data to examine what factors impact farmers' response to irrigation water usage. We find that: (i) price elasticities vary significantly according to model specifications and water costs; (ii) demand at both extensive (irrigated acres) and intensive (water application per acre) margins is input price inelastic; and (iii) price elasticities are homogeneous across crops but heterogeneous across states. For the policy-making, if there is a 10% tax on irrigation water cost, total water usage decreases by about 4% for corn and soybean, respectively.