Three Essays On Financial Analysts Stock Price Forecasts PDF Download
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| Author | : Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays on Financial Analysts' Stock Price Forecasts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts' stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams' target price forecast characteristics, analysts' use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts. The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports. In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts' target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts' target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts' target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts' opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.
| Author | : Zhu Chen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays in Financial Analysts and Corporate Disclosure Using Textual Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"The dissertation consists of two essays in financial analysts and one essay in corporate disclosure, all utilizing textual analysis. In the first essay, I decompose analysts’ estimates of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) into abnormal and expected components using a risk characteristic-based model. I find that the abnormal component predicts future stock returns, especially when combined with EPS and dispersion of EPS forecasts. Additional analysis shows that the abnormal component of WACC predicts underlying firms’ future fundamental performance, particularly for experienced analysts and firms with low information intensity. My findings highlight that the abnormal component of analysts’ WACC estimates is informative. Analysts’ decision process to map their forecast inputs such as EPS forecasts and risk assessment to their investment opinions such as target price and recommendation remains to be a black box in the previous literature. In the second essay, I find that analysts’ estimate of WACC is negatively associated with their target price forecasts. It provides empirical evidence that analysts would rationalize the DCF model. From the investor’s perspective, I find that investors generally overreact to the information in WACC estimates when evaluating analysts’ target price forecasts. The extent of the overreaction depends on whether target price changes are conflicted by WACC changes. In light of psychological theories, I provide empirical evidence that when the investors' optimistic verifiable expectation is rejected, they switch to the unverifiable component - WACC for information. At last, I show similar empirical evidence for analyst recommendation.In the third essay, using 4,262 Form 20-F filings from 37 countries, we find that corporate risk-taking is positively associated with managerial expectation as measured by forward-looking statement (FLS) tone, particularly for firms from countries with strong institutions and for FLS tone related to macroeconomics. Our study advances the measure of overall managerial expectations and links it to corporate risk-taking in an international setting"--
| Author | : Gang Li |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 218 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays on Information and Asset Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Zhongwei Huang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays on the Monitoring Role of Financial Analysts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This dissertation consists of three chapters that present three standalone essays on the monitoring role of financial analysts. Chapter 1 investigates the monitoring role of financial analysts in the financial reporting process by examining the informativeness and monitoring effect of their written comments on earnings quality. I find that these comments have incremental predictability with respect to future accounting restatements, and convey information to investors beyond that in the earnings forecasts, stock ratings, price targets, and other qualitative text in analyst reports. Further analyses suggest that the market's reaction to these comments is primarily driven by negative comments and comments written with certainty. In addition, controlling for accrual reversals, I find that firms significantly reduce the level of accruals-based earnings management after receiving negative comments, and this reduction is not accompanied by an increase in real activities management. Overall, the first chapter provides direct evidence on analysts' monitoring role in financial reporting. Chapter 2 examines whether and how analysts' monitoring of the financial reporting process alleviates a well-known agency problem in which a manager inflates her compensation by manipulating earnings. I argue that analysts' monitoring reduces a manager's ability to conceal earnings management from directors, thus facilitating directors' adjustment of executive compensation in the presence of earnings management. Consistent with this argument, I find that earnings carry a lower weight in the determination of CEO compensation in firms that are criticized by analysts regarding earnings quality, but only when directors are likely to be aware of the critical analyst reports. The main findings are robust to matching on performance and controlling for firm-fixed effects and are not driven by other text in the analyst reports. Additional analyses suggest that the weight placed on earnings decreases as the actual accruals deviate from analysts' accruals forecasts. Overall, the second chapter emphasizes analysts' monitoring role in alleviating managerial rent extraction in executive compensation. Chapter 3 provides evidence on the impact of recent analyst independence reforms (the National Association of Securities Dealers [NASD] Rule 2711 and the companion New York Stock Exchange [NYSE] Rule 472 Amendment, and the Global Settlement) on analysts' monitoring role in the financial reporting process. The NASD Rule 2711 requires brokerage firms to structurally separate investment banking from equity research; meanwhile, the Global Settlement mandates the participating banks to fund independent research firms to the amount of 432.5 million dollars from 2004 to 2009. I find evidence consistent with an increase in analysts' monitoring effectiveness following the reforms. Further analyses suggest that this increase is primarily driven by the Global Settlement, rather than by the adoption of NASD Rule 2711. The evidence is robust to a difference-in-difference specification with Canadian firms as the control group. Moreover, I document a reversal of the increase in monitoring effectiveness following the end of the Global Settlement's five-year funding. Overall, the third chapter highlights the interaction between the monitoring role of financial analysts and the regulatory environment.
| Author | : Roger K. Loh |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 153 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business analysts |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays on Security Analysts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Abstract: I examine the role of sell-side security analysts in financial markets. The first essay addresses the stylized fact that investors' reaction to stock recommendations is often incomplete so that there is a predictable post-recommendation drift. I investigate whether investor inattention contributes to this drift by using turnover as a proxy for attention. I find that the recommendation drift of firms with low prior turnover is more than double in magnitude compared to that of firms with high prior turnover. Volume reactions around the recommendation show that investors fail to react promptly to recommendations issued on low attention stocks. Together, the evidence suggests that investor inattention is a plausible explanation for investors' underreaction to stock recommendations. The second essay studies conflict of interests in analyst research. Analyst research is alleged to be biased because analysts' employers underwrite securities for the firms covered. I argue that this analyst affiliation bias should be strongest for firms with a desire to over-inflate stock prices. Using stock recommendations data, I find that the analyst affiliation bias is on average pervasive across all firms in the bull-market years of 1994-2000. In the regulatory reform years of 2001-2006, only poorly governed firms, firms whose CEO wealth is highly sensitive to stock price, and negative prior return firms continue to exhibit the affiliation bias while the bias mostly disappears for all other firms. Examining the market's reaction around stock recommendations shows that the market does not sufficiently discount the fact that affiliated analyst optimism is more serious for some firms. The third essay investigates the market's response to trends and reversals in earnings surprises where earnings surprises are defined as firms' reported earnings less analysts' consensus forecasts. Trends are defined as consecutive same-signed earnings surprises while reversals occur when the sign of the most recent surprise differs from the prior surprises. I find significantly stronger return drift following trends than reversals. In comparison to reversals, trends are associated with greater predictability in subsequent analyst forecast revisions. These results are inconsistent with representativeness and conservatism causing return drift and could be consistent with the gambler's fallacy in Rabin (2002).
| Author | : Vivek Sharma |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays in Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This dissertation research comprises three essays in finance. The first essay shows how dynamic institutional trading constraints related to capital, diversification, and short- selling asymmetrically affect the incorporation of new information as reflected in the Permanent price impact of their trades. The sign of the permanent price impact asymmetry between institutional buys versus sells is positive at the initial stage of a price run-up and reverses due to changing constraints with a prolonged price run-up in a stock. Idiosyncratic volatility, analyst forecast dispersion, trading intensity, price dispersion, and bullish market conditions further sharpen the initial asymmetry, as well as its reversal after a price run-up. The second essay we provide a new explanation for the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). We hypothesize that the PEAD results from information production and the drift observed is a movement towards the changes in expectations and not an under-reaction or delayed response to the earnings announcement. We create a new measure that captures the changes in expectations over and above the earnings surprise. Our proxy is based on annual EPS forecasts by equity research analysts and takes into consideration both the responsiveness and the magnitude of the net changes in EPS forecasts. A long-short trading strategy based on portfolios formed using our new measure generates higher returns compared to portfolios formed based on the earnings surprise measure. Most importantly, the earnings surprise based portfolio rankings lose its significance in explaining the PEAD when considered together with our new measure based portfolio ranking. In the third essay, we study trading by institutional investors around delayed disclosures. A disclosure is said to be delayed if there is a gap between the event date and the actual announcement of the event. We show that connected institutional trading can predict the information contained in these events, prior to it being disclosed.
| Author | : Wenjuan Xie |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 138 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Mr.Mark P. Taylor |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 1991-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451947038 |
Download Intervention, Interest Rates, and Charts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper contains essays on sterilized intervention, on covered interest rate parity, and on chartist analysis in financial markets. Each essay contains a definition, brief survey of the empirical evidence and overall assessment of each topic.
| Author | : Pieter Johannes De Jong |
| Publisher | : ProQuest |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : Economic forecasting |
| ISBN | : 9780549145035 |
Download The Change in Financial Analysts' Forecast Attributes for Value and Growth Stocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This research will concentrate on the changes in earnings forecasts, forecast accuracy and forecast dispersion for growth and value stocks after Reg FD. Each topic is presented in a separate essay. The first essay tests if growth and value stock returns respond more to forecasted earnings changes than they do to changes in earnings and whether these stock returns respond in a different fashion before and after Reg FD. This phenomenon is stronger for growth stock portfolio strategies than it is for value stock portfolios. After Reg FD, the overall impact of earnings expectations on stock returns is smaller, especially for growth stock returns. The second essay examines financial analysts' earnings forecast accuracy in value and growth stocks before and after the introduction of Reg FD. Accuracy for both stock groups (value and growth stocks) has improved after the introduction of Reg FD. The results in this essay provide additional evidence indicating that analysts did not just misinterpret available news but consciously tried to maintain relationships with managers. However, Reg FD efficiently limited these relationships between managers of growth firms and analysts so that the monetary advantage from manipulating earnings forecasts before the introduction of Reg FD no longer exists. The third essay evaluates the hypothesis stating that forecast dispersion, on both growth and value stock returns, has increased after the introduction Reg FD. However, the increased dispersion found at the second quarter of 2001 drastically dissipates at the second quarter of 2002, although value stock forecast dispersion before earnings announcement and value stock belief jumbling remain higher. The results in this essay suggest that corporate voluntary disclosure created a greater variety of opinions and, therefore, more uncertainty about value stocks. Also, value stock returns have a stronger inverse relationship with dispersion because financial analysts have become more uncertain about value firms' performance. The bigger the disagreement about a stock's value, the higher the market price relative to the true value of the stock, and the lower its future return.
| Author | : Ritong Qu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 230 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Essays in Asset Pricing and Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
My thesis has two themes: The first theme is about studying investors' expectations and the relation to asset prices; while the second theme is about evaluating forecasting performance. Both themes focus on what we can learn from a panel of data. The first chapter of my dissertation studies rational investors' expectation of consumption growth at the presence of structure breaks and asset pricing implications. While the first chapter studies how rational individuals should do, the second and third chapters focus on forecasters' behavior in real world, by developing tools to evaluate forecasters' performance about multiple variables, across many forecasters and at single time periods. In Chapter 1, we use data on multiple consumption goods to identify infrequent, but persistent breaks to consumption growth dynamics. Over a sixty-year sample, we find four breaks, all of which are associated with major macroeconomic and financial market events such as oil price shocks, the Great Moderation, the end of the tech stock market bubble, and the Covid pandemic. The impact of the breaks on consumption growth is highly uncertain and heterogeneous across consumption goods. We explore the asset pricing implications of our novel empirical evidence in the context of a Lucas tree model in which investors use information on multiple consumption goods to learn about model parameters. We find that break risk in consumption growth, combined with investor learning, helps resolve a number of asset pricing puzzles such as high risk premium and volatility of market returns, as well as cross-sectional anomalies such as momentum. Chapter 2 is joint work with Allan Timmermann and Yinchu Zhu. Forecasting skills are often identified by comparing predictive accuracy across large numbers of forecasts. This generates a multiple hypothesis testing problem that can trigger many false positives. We develop a new bootstrap test approach for identifying superior predictive accuracy that applies to multi-dimensional panel settings with arbitrarily many forecasts, outcome variables, horizons, and time periods. Our approach controls the family-wise error rate while retaining the ability to identify truly skilled forecasters. An empirical analysis of the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts across 185 countries, five variables and several forecast horizons shows how our approach can be used to identify variables and countries for which the IMF's forecasts improve significantly at shorter horizons as well as cases where they fail to improve. Chapter 3 is also joint work with Allan Timmermann and Yinchu Zhu. We develop new methods for pairwise comparisons of predictive accuracy with cross-sectional data. Using a common factor setup, we establish conditions on cross-sectional dependencies in forecast errors which allow us to test the null of equal predictive accuracy on a single cross-section of forecasts. We consider both unconditional tests of equal predictive accuracy as well as tests that condition on the realization of common factors and show how to decompose forecast errors into exposures to common factors and idiosyncratic components. An empirical application compares the predictive accuracy of financial analysts' short-term earnings forecasts across six brokerage firms.
