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NASA Technical Paper

NASA Technical Paper
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1988
Genre: Science
ISBN:

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Handbook Of Applied Econometrics And Statistical Inference

Handbook Of Applied Econometrics And Statistical Inference
Author: Aman Ullah
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 754
Release: 2002-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780203911075

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Summarizing developments and techniques in the field, this reference covers sample surveys, nonparametric analysis, hypothesis testing, time series analysis, Bayesian inference, and distribution theory for applications in statistics, economics, medicine, biology, engineering, sociology, psychology, and information technology. It supplies a geometric proof of an extended Gauss-Markov theorem, approaches for the design and implementation of sample surveys, advances in the theory of Neyman's smooth test, and methods for pre-test and biased estimation. It includes discussions ofsample size requirements for estimation in SUR models, innovative developments in nonparametric models, and more.


State-space Models with Regime Switching

State-space Models with Regime Switching
Author: Chang-Jin Kim
Publisher: Mit Press
Total Pages: 297
Release: 1999
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262112383

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Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.


The International Petroleum Cartel (reprint)

The International Petroleum Cartel (reprint)
Author: United States. Federal Trade Commission
Publisher:
Total Pages: 392
Release: 1975
Genre: Petroleum industry and trade
ISBN:

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How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
Author: Zidong An
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2019-03-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513510657

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We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.


Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles
Author: C. Milas
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 461
Release: 2006-02-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 044451838X

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This volume of Contributions to Economic Analysis addresses a number of important questions in the field of business cycles including: How should business cycles be dated and measured? What is the response of output and employment to oil-price and monetary shocks? And, is the business cycle asymmetric, and does it matter?


Models for Intensive Longitudinal Data

Models for Intensive Longitudinal Data
Author: Theodore A. Walls
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 311
Release: 2006-01-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0198038666

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Rapid technological advances in devices used for data collection have led to the emergence of a new class of longitudinal data: intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Behavioral scientific studies now frequently utilize handheld computers, beepers, web interfaces, and other technological tools for collecting many more data points over time than previously possible. Other protocols, such as those used in fMRI and monitoring of public safety, also produce ILD, hence the statistical models in this volume are applicable to a range of data. The volume features state-of-the-art statistical modeling strategies developed by leading statisticians and methodologists working on ILD in conjunction with behavioral scientists. Chapters present applications from across the behavioral and health sciences, including coverage of substantive topics such as stress, smoking cessation, alcohol use, traffic patterns, educational performance and intimacy. Models for Intensive Longitudinal Data (MILD) is designed for those who want to learn about advanced statistical models for intensive longitudinal data and for those with an interest in selecting and applying a given model. The chapters highlight issues of general concern in modeling these kinds of data, such as a focus on regulatory systems, issues of curve registration, variable frequency and spacing of measurements, complex multivariate patterns of change, and multiple independent series. The extraordinary breadth of coverage makes this an indispensable reference for principal investigators designing new studies that will introduce ILD, applied statisticians working on related models, and methodologists, graduate students, and applied analysts working in a range of fields. A companion Web site at www.oup.com/us/MILD contains program examples and documentation.


Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models

Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models
Author: Jun Ma
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 308
Release: 2013-09-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461480604

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Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among several others. This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management, and will focus on such topics as Zero-Information-Limit-Conditions, using Markov Switching Models to analyze economics series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Principles and techniques in this book will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance.