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| Author | : Andreas Wenger |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 417 |
| Release | : 2020-05-28 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1000088367 |
Download The Politics and Science of Prevision Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
| Author | : Andreas Wenger |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9780367513559 |
Download The Politics and Science of Prevision Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR.
| Author | : Bertrand de Jouvenel |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 17 |
| Release | : 1964 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Political Science and Prevision Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Mark Landy |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 380 |
| Release | : 2019-11-14 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 100067987X |
Download The Nature of Politics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Bertrand de Jouvenel (1903-1987) was one of the great political thinkers of the twentieth century, but he left few disciples. The essays contained in this volume have been selected because they serve to clarify, elaborate, and expand upon the themes of his three masterworks: On Power, Sovereignty, and The Pure Theory of Politics. De Jouvenel's thought stands apart from the main branches of twentieth-century political philosophy and is largely independent of schools and ideologies. By drawing on an older, more persuasive philosophical tradition stretching from Plato to Rousseau, de Jouvenel sought to restore political science to its ancient function: the explanation of political things. With directness and originality, his work addresses questions that go to the heart of the political science enterprise, exploring its nature, its mission, and its attitude to theory, facts, and values. In the realm of political practice, de Jouvenel shares common ground with his contemporaries while remaining essentially independent. He shares with the left a deep concern for reducing human misery and ecological depredation and a belief in the need for government-directed economic planning. On the other hand, he shares the right's abiding suspicion of state power and its belief in the superiority of the market as the presumptive method for economic decision making. De Jouvenel's refreshing freedom from ideological blinders makes him worthy of comparison to Orwell, but his ambition stretches beyond the novelistic in that he attempts to develop a theory of the good state resting upon a clear-sighted understanding of the true nature of political behavior. Graced with a brilliant introduction by Dennis Hale and Marc Landy, this volume serves as an ideal introduction to de Jouvenel's thought. It will be of interest to political scientists, historians, and sociologists.
| Author | : Rob J Hyndman |
| Publisher | : OTexts |
| Total Pages | : 380 |
| Release | : 2018-05-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0987507117 |
Download Forecasting: principles and practice Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
| Author | : Neal Riemer |
| Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield |
| Total Pages | : 508 |
| Release | : 1997 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9780939693412 |
Download The New World of Politics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In this fourth edition Neal Riemer and Douglas W. Simon again seek to introduce students to the challenging discipline of political science by highliting six cardinal features. The editors strongly believe that their unique and comprehensive approach, employing those six features, can best equip students of political science to stay abreast of the ever-changing, and ever-challenging, world of politics. First and most important Riemer and Simon affirm the importance of addressing the three main concerns of political science: political and philosophy and ethics, empirical/behavioral political science, and public policy. Second, the authors reaffirm their normative preference for politics as a civilizing enterprise, one that enables people in the political community live better, to grow robustly in mind and spirit, and to find creative fulfillment. The fourth cardinal feature requires to recognize realistically the ever-chaning nature of politics and the tasks of assessing and responding to changing values. The sixth cardinal feature of The New World of Politics is understanding the importance of keeping the future in mind--not only the immediate future, but the long-range future. This book seeks to introduce students to political science as a discipline intimately involved with ethics, emprical social scientific inquiry, and public policy. Neal Riemer and Douglas W. Simon are endeavoring to help students respond to those future problems with understanding and wisdom. A Collegiate Press book
| Author | : Douglas W. Simon |
| Publisher | : CQ Press |
| Total Pages | : 505 |
| Release | : 2019-01-02 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1544305958 |
Download The Challenge of Politics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"[This is] a textbook that offers students a good introduction to the science of politics while emphasizing the moral, empirical, and prudential dimensions of politics." —Prosper Bernard, Jr., College of Staten Island This updated Sixth Edition of The Challenge of Politics enables students to see how the subfields of political science converge around a set of crucial questions, such as "Can we as citizens and students articulate and defend a view of the good political life and its guiding political values?" "Can we bring political wisdom to bear on judgments about politics and public issues?" and "Can we develop a science of politics to help us understand significant political phenomena—the empirical realities of politics?" Balancing lessons of classic and contemporary theory with contemporary politics and empirical study, the book equips students with the tools they need to explore the impact of philosophy and ideology, recognize major forms of government, evaluate empirical findings, and understand how policy issues directly affect people’s lives. The updated Sixth Edition includes new material on the 2016 presidential elections, the role of social media in politics, and an expanded discussion on the rise of populist movements. Give your students the SAGE edge! SAGE edge offers a robust online environment featuring an impressive array of free tools and resources for review, study, and further exploration, keeping both instructors and students on the cutting edge of teaching and learning. Learn more at edge.sagepub.com/simon6e.
| Author | : Philip E. Tetlock |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 368 |
| Release | : 2017-08-29 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1400888816 |
Download Expert Political Judgment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
| Author | : John Dewey |
| Publisher | : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform |
| Total Pages | : 456 |
| Release | : 1916 |
| Genre | : Juvenile Nonfiction |
| ISBN | : |
Download Democracy and Education Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
. Renewal of Life by Transmission. The most notable distinction between living and inanimate things is that the former maintain themselves by renewal. A stone when struck resists. If its resistance is greater than the force of the blow struck, it remains outwardly unchanged. Otherwise, it is shattered into smaller bits. Never does the stone attempt to react in such a way that it may maintain itself against the blow, much less so as to render the blow a contributing factor to its own continued action. While the living thing may easily be crushed by superior force, it none the less tries to turn the energies which act upon it into means of its own further existence. If it cannot do so, it does not just split into smaller pieces (at least in the higher forms of life), but loses its identity as a living thing. As long as it endures, it struggles to use surrounding energies in its own behalf. It uses light, air, moisture, and the material of soil. To say that it uses them is to say that it turns them into means of its own conservation. As long as it is growing, the energy it expends in thus turning the environment to account is more than compensated for by the return it gets: it grows. Understanding the word "control" in this sense, it may be said that a living being is one that subjugates and controls for its own continued activity the energies that would otherwise use it up. Life is a self-renewing process through action upon the environment.
| Author | : Thomas Hale |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 256 |
| Release | : 2024-04-02 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0691238138 |
Download Long Problems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Political strategies for tackling climate change and other “long problems” that span generations Climate change and its consequences unfold over many generations. Past emissions affect our climate today, just as our actions shape the climate of tomorrow, while the effects of global warming will last thousands of years. Yet the priorities of the present dominate our climate policy and the politics surrounding it. Even the social science that attempts to frame the problem does not theorize time effectively. In this pathbreaking book, Thomas Hale examines the politics of climate change and other “long problems.” He shows why we find it hard to act before a problem’s effects are felt, why our future interests carry little weight in current debates, and why our institutions struggle to balance durability and adaptability. With long-term goals in mind, he outlines strategies for tilting the politics and policies of climate change toward better outcomes. Globalization “widened” political problems across national boundaries and changed our understanding of politics and governance. Hale argues that we must make a similar shift to understand the “lengthening” of problems across time. He describes tools and strategies that can, under certain conditions, allow policymakers to anticipate future needs and risks, make interventions that get ahead of problems, shift time horizons, adapt to changing circumstances, and set forward-looking goals that endure. As the climate changes, politics must, too. Efforts to solve long-term problems—not only climate change but other issues as well, including technology governance and demographic shifts—can also be a catalyst for a broader institutional transformation oriented toward the long term. With Long Problems, Hale offers an essential guide to governing across time.
