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The Financial Crisis in Russia 1998

The Financial Crisis in Russia 1998
Author: Natalie Zonis
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2011-01-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3640803507

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Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: 1,7, University of Applied Sciences Berlin (International Management), language: English, abstract: Once again Russia’s positive economic development outlook has been thrown into question by the global financial crisis. The country has faced a whole lot of economic problems in the past months. Russians have withdrawn 290 billion Dollars from the country’s banks in fear of a financial collapse. At first sight on the past two years’ events on Russia’s financial market one may have had an impression of a „déjà-vu”: Since August 2008: the Rouble has dropped about one third against the Euro over 30 percent and against the Dollar even more than 40 percent.2 The incoming foreign investment of 28 billion Dollars which broke all records right in the year before has now shrunk up to a few billion. The country’s two stock markets, the Russian Trading System (RTS) and the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX), have fallen 78 percent and 67 percent respectively since their highs in May 2008.3 It appears as some cynical 10th anniversary of 17th of August 1998: when the Russian Government announced the gradual devaluation of the Rouble, the default on domestic and foreign debts, and declared a moratorium on payment by Russian commercial banks to foreign creditors. So the Rouble has dropped to the Dollar more than 300percent in the following months and was six times lower only a year after. At the outset this paper sets the currency crisis into the framework of the macroeconomic theory and provides a historical overview by putting the 1998 crisis into its timeframe and showing the impacts on the Russian economy. Furthermore the following questions are discussed: Why did the Rouble collapse? Was this a home-made crisis or was it caused by exogenous factors such as the foregone turmoil on Asia’s financial markets? Finally it shows what the conditions under which an economy can become vulnerable to a currency crisis are, what are and the right and the wrong options to resolve it and the lessons learned.


Market Without Economy

Market Without Economy
Author: Nicola Melloni
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 157
Release: 2007-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3838254074

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The 1998 financial crisis in Russia was one of the most dramatic economic breakdowns and symbolized the failure of the transition process as it had been conducted since the end of the Soviet Union. There is no general agreement on the nature of the rouble collapse; a number of contradictory interpretations have been discussed among economists. This book argues that the Russian 1998 financial turmoil is best predicted by Krugman's and Sargent-Wallace's models. The currency collapse had its origins in the peculiar way in which the transition was managed. In particular, the Russian government became entrapped in the double constraint of a tight monetary policy imposed by the IMF on the one side, and a loose fiscal policy to support the private sector on the other. Those policies were inconsistent, and led to inflationary processes that were postponed through emission of a large amount of Treasury Bonds to finance the fiscal deficit. At the same time, a tight monetary policy retarded the recovery of the industrial sector. While the particular timing of the crisis was co-determined by other factors, such as the Asian financial crisis and the fall of the oil price, it was this incoherent monetary and financial policies mix that constituted the main cause of the rouble's spectacular collapse in August 1998. The book provides extensive coverage of a decade of Russian reforms. It critically analyzes neo-liberal ideology and the course of the transition process supported by the Washington Consensus.


No Precedent, No Plan

No Precedent, No Plan
Author: Martin G. Gilman
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 355
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262014653

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Review: "In 1998, President Boris Yeltsin's government defaulted on its domestic debt and Russia experienced a financial meltdown that brought it to the brink of disaster. In No Precedent, No plan, Martin Gilman offers an insider's view of Russia's financial crisis. As the International Monetary Fund's senior person in Moscow, Gilman was in the eye of the storm. Russia's policy response to the economic collapse stemming from the disintegration of the Soviet Union was chaotic. Fiscal deficits loomed in anticipation of future budget revenue that never seemed to materialize--despite repeated promises to the IMF. The rapid buildup of sovereign debt would have challenged even a competent government. In the new Russia, with its barely functioning government and no consensus on the path toward democratic and economic transformation, domestic politics trumped economic common sense." "Gilman argues that the debt default, although avoidable, actually spurred Russia to integrate its economy with the rest of the world. In analyzing the ordeal of the 1998 crisis, Gilman suggests that the IMF helped Russia avoid an even greater catastrophe. He details the IMF's involvement and underscores the unique challenge that Russia presented to the IMF. There really was no precedent, even if economist Joseph Stiglitz and others argued otherwise. In recounting Russia's emergence from the IMF's tutelage, Gilman explains how the shell-shocked Russian public turned to Vladimir Putin in search of stability after the trauma of 1998. And although Russia's own prospects are favorable, Gilman expresses concern that the 1998 Russian default could serve as an unfortunate precedent for sovereign defaults in the future with the IMF once again playing a similar role." "No Precedent, No Plan offers a definitive account--the first from an insider's perspective--of Russia's painful transition to a market economy."--BOOK JACKET


Global Financial Crises

Global Financial Crises
Author: Joseph R. Bisignano
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 474
Release: 2000-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0792378652

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Throughout the 1990s, major banking and currency crises occurred in many countries around the world. This book contains papers and comments from a conference held to identify and discuss the lessons to be learned from these crises, such as their causes and how to prevent their reoccurrence.


Meltdown in Russia

Meltdown in Russia
Author: Emmerens Harten
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

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Russia Rebounds

Russia Rebounds
Author: Mr.David Edwin Wynn Owen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 196
Release: 2003-09-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589062078

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Russia Rebounds analyzes Russia’s dramatic economic recovery since the country’s 1998 financial crisis, emphasizing macroeconomic issues and fiscal and banking sector reforms. The crisis was a massive shock to the system and a considerable surprise to both Russians and foreign investors, who a year before had come to think that the worst of the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy was over. Macroeconomic performance since the crisis has been impressive. The book assesses the contribution of various factors underlying this recovery and highlights key policy challenges to ensure its sustainability.


The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia

The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia
Author: Ms.Tatiana Damjanovic
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2001-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781451858341

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This paper reviews the economic conditions in central Asia at the time of the Russian financial crisis of August 1998; the channels by which the crisis was transmitted to the central Asian region; and the policy responses. The paper concludes that, while real exchange rates of central Asian national currencies vis-à-vis the Russian ruble have returned to their pre-crisis levels following the nominal devaluations that ensued, other indicators of external competitiveness, such as unit labor cost indices, suggest the need for further surveillance in this area. Also, it is not yet clear if full exchange rate flexibility has been established in central Asia despite the protracted and costly exits from the nominal exchange rates in place at the time of the crisis. Finally, the debt-to-GDP ratios in central Asia, which grew rapidly between 1998 and 1999 in the context of large exchange rate adjustments, remain a challenge for the Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities, in particular.


The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia

The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia
Author: G. Pastor
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper reviews the economic conditions in central Asia at the time of the Russian financial crisis of August 1998; the channels by which the crisis was transmitted to the central Asian region; and the policy responses. The paper concludes that, while real exchange rates of central Asian national currencies vis-agrave;-vis the Russian ruble have returned to their pre-crisis levels following the nominal devaluations that ensued, other indicators of external competitiveness, such as unit labor cost indices, suggest the need for further surveillance in this area. Also, it is not yet clear if full exchange rate flexibility has been established in central Asia despite the protracted and costly exits from the nominal exchange rates in place at the time of the crisis. Finally, the debt-to-GDP ratios in central Asia, which grew rapidly between 1998 and 1999 in the context of large exchange rate adjustments, remain a challenge for the Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities, in particular.


The Asian Financial Crisis

The Asian Financial Crisis
Author: Wing Thye Woo
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2000
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262692458

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This book analyzes the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1999. In addition to the issues of financial system restructuring, export-led recovery, crony capitalism, and competitiveness in Asian manufacturing, it examines six key Asian economies--China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. The book makes clear that there is little particularly Asian about the Asian financial crisis. The generic character of the crisis became clear during 1998, when it reached Russia, South Africa, and Brazil. The spread of the crisis reflects the rapid arrival of global capitalism in a world economy not used to the integration of the advanced and developing countries. The book makes recommendations for reform, including the formation of regional monetary bodies, the establishment of an international bankruptcy system, the democratization of international organizations, the infusion of public money to revive the financial and corporate sectors in Pacific Asia, and stronger supervision over financial institutions. The book emphasizes a mismatch in Pacific Asia between investment in physical hardware (e.g., factories and machinery) and in social software (e.g., scientific research centers and administrative and judiciary systems). In a world of growing international competitiveness, concerns over governance will weigh increasingly heavily on unreformed Asian countries. The long-term competitiveness of Asia rests on its getting its institutions right.


Lessons from the Russian Meltdown

Lessons from the Russian Meltdown
Author: Enrico C. Perotti
Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2002
Genre: Economic stabilization
ISBN: 9781898128717

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On 17 August 1998 Russia abandoned its exchange rate regime, defaulted on its domestic public debt and declared a moratorium on banks' foreign liabilities. This was equivalent to an outright default. The depth and speed of the Russian meltdown shocked the international markets and precipitated a period of serious financial instability. There are important lessons to be learned from this episode on issues of bank supervision and international stability. Enrico Perotti locates the underlying cause of the crisis in the structure of individual incentives in a context of capture of state decisions by special interests. The author concludes with a radical policy proposal for a stable banking system for Russia, based on a segmented, narrow banking sector, concentration on commercial banking and a cautious extension of deposit insurance.