Subhourly Wind Forecasting Techniques For Wind Turbine Operations PDF Download
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Author | : H. L. Wegley |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1984 |
Genre | : Turbines |
ISBN | : |
Download Subhourly Wind Forecasting Techniques for Wind Turbine Operations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1984 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Subhourly Wind Forecasting Techniques for Wind Turbine Operations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 984 |
Release | : 1985 |
Genre | : Aeronautics |
ISBN | : |
Download Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Penny Farmer |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 172 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 3642826601 |
Download Wind Energy 1975–1985 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : André Gensler |
Publisher | : kassel university press GmbH |
Total Pages | : 216 |
Release | : 2019-01-16 |
Genre | : Weights and measures |
ISBN | : 3737606366 |
Download Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
Author | : Ümit Cali |
Publisher | : kassel university press GmbH |
Total Pages | : 174 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 3862190315 |
Download Grid and Market Integration of Large-Scale Wind Farms Using Advanced Wind Power Forecasting: Technical and Energy Economic Aspects Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 140 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : Direct energy conversion |
ISBN | : |
Download Wind Energy Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
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Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : |
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Download A Survey on Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.
Author | : Steven C. Leovy |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 172 |
Release | : 1996 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Wind-speed Forecasting and Its Value for Power System Operation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Matthias Lange |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 214 |
Release | : 2006-01-16 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 3540311068 |
Download Physical Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The effective integration of wind energy into the overall electricity supply is a technical and economical challenge because the availability of wind power is determined by fluctuating meteorological conditions. This book offers an approach to the ultimate goal of the short-term prediction of the power output of winds farms. Starting from basic aspects of atmospheric fluid dynamics, the authors discuss the structure of winds fields, the available forecast systems and the handling of the intrinsic, weather-dependent uncertainties in the regional prediction of the power generated by wind turbines. This book addresses scientists and engineers working in wind energy related R and D and industry, as well as graduate students and nonspecialists researchers in the fields of atmospheric physics and meteorology.