Spillovers From Us Government Spending Shocks PDF Download
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Author | : Ms.Adina Popescu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 15 |
Release | : 2017-10-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484325222 |
Download Spillovers from US Government Spending Shocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This note analyzes the impact of preannounced government spending shocks in the United States on the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance. Using a vector autoregression framework that allows anticipated fiscal shocks to be identified using survey information, we find that preannounced spending shocks lead to a sizable real effective dollar appreciation and a worsening of both the aggregate trade balance and bilateral trade balances in a panel of partner countries. The results are robust to controlling for country-specific variables like the macroeconomic and policy conditions in the recipient countries, are generalized across regions and might have decreased during the zero-interest-lower-bound regime.
Author | : Stephen Nicar |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download International Spillovers from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
I estimate the effect of U.S. government spending and tax shocks on Canada and the U.K. from 1975 to 2014, and on Japan from 1979 to 2014. Spending and tax shocks are identified using sign restrictions on the impulse responses from a vector autoregression (VAR). I find that spillover effects of expansionary fiscal shocks are not uniform across countries, though for all three countries they result in economically significant GDP increases in the short run. In addition, government spending shocks have larger effects than net tax shocks. Altogether, the results support the idea that some countries may benefit significantly from expansionary U.S. fiscal policy.
Author | : Sangyup Choi |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 60 |
Release | : 2019-07-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484389697 |
Download International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds rate. We also find that fiscal shocks tend to have larger effects during periods of recessions than expansions in the source country, and that the adverse effect of a fiscal consolidation is larger than the positive effect of the same size of a fiscal expansion. In contrast, we do not find systematic and statistically significant differences in the spillover effects across recipient countries depending on their exchange rate regime, although capital controls seem to play some moderating role. The extension of the analysis to a panel of 16 small open economies confirms the finding from the U.S. economy.
Author | : Ms.Adina Popescu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 15 |
Release | : 2017-10-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484320255 |
Download Spillovers from US Government Spending Shocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This note analyzes the impact of preannounced government spending shocks in the United States on the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance. Using a vector autoregression framework that allows anticipated fiscal shocks to be identified using survey information, we find that preannounced spending shocks lead to a sizable real effective dollar appreciation and a worsening of both the aggregate trade balance and bilateral trade balances in a panel of partner countries. The results are robust to controlling for country-specific variables like the macroeconomic and policy conditions in the recipient countries, are generalized across regions and might have decreased during the zero-interest-lower-bound regime.
Author | : Timothy G. Conley |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2020 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download A Local-spillover Decomposition of the Causal Effect of U.S. Defense Spending Shocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Ayobami E. Ilori |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2020 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Fiscal Policy Shocks and International Spillovers Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Shafik Hebous |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2016-03-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513578723 |
Download Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We study the effects of federal purchases on firms’ investment using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts in the United States with key financial firm-level information. We find that 1 dollar of federal spending increases firms’ capital investment by 7 to 11 cents. The average effect masks heterogeneity: Effects are stronger for firms that face financing constraints and they are close to 0 for unconstrained firms. In line with the financial accelerator model, our findings indicate that the effect of government purchases works through easing firms’ access to external borrowing. Furthermore, industry-level analysis suggests that that the increase in investment at the firm level translates into an industry-wide effect without crowding-out capital investment of other firms in the same industry.
Author | : Alberto Alesina |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 596 |
Release | : 2013-06-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 022601844X |
Download Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
Author | : Patrick Blagrave |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2017-10-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484352416 |
Download Fiscal Spillovers Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.
Author | : Ethan Ilzetzki |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2011-03-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455218022 |
Download How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.