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Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets

Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets
Author: Bala Arshanapalli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates the sources of time-varying risk and risk premia for both the U.S. stock and bond markets. Although a growing literature has emerged that examines the return and volatility characteristics of the U.S. stock and bond markets separately, little work has appeared that models these markets jointly. This paper proposes a model that provides evidence concerning the sources of time varying risk and risk premia in the markets that considers both markets simultaneously. The model captures the change in the risk premium to each market's own volatility risk as well as to the covariance risk for specific events. We test for the effects of macroeconomic news on time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether such news induces time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks, as opposed to bonds exhibit a change in the risk premium on variance risk on PPI announcement dates. There is also evidence of a change in the bond risk premium on covariance risk on macroeconomic news announcement dates. Employment reports and PPI releases appear as events inducing time-varying conditional variance for stock, Treasury Notes, as well as Treasury Bond returns. Finally, the results do not support the conjecture that conditional covariance of stock and bond returns falls on announcement days.


Macroeconomic News, Time-varying Risk Factors, and Time-varying Risk Premia

Macroeconomic News, Time-varying Risk Factors, and Time-varying Risk Premia
Author: Alexandre Vézina
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2001
Genre: Bond market
ISBN:

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The basic purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of time-varying risk premia for both the U.S. stock and bond markets. In addition, we look at the sources of time-varying conditional variance and conditional covariance of these two markets. Although a large literature has emerged on the return and volatility of any of the two markets, few studies propose a model in which both markets are modeled together. Moreover, after all the research done, the reasons explaining the causes of the volatility of any of the two markets remain unclear. What we propose in this paper is a model that considers both markets' volatility simultaneously. Our model captures the change in the risk premium, if any, to each market's own volatility risk as well as to the covariance risk for specific events. More specifically, we investigate if macroeconomic news is a source of time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether these results in time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks, as opposed to bonds, mainly exhibit a change in the risk premium on variance risk. The results suggest that most of the change is due to the PPI announcements. Our models also indicate that there is a change in the bond risk premium on covariance risk on macroeconomic news announcement dates. Finally, linear regressions show that employment reports and PPI releases are a source of time-varying conditional variance for stock, notes and bond returns.


Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

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Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.


Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2002-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019160691X

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Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.


Time Variations in Risk Premia, Volatility, and Reward to Volatility

Time Variations in Risk Premia, Volatility, and Reward to Volatility
Author: Yuming Li
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper I relate the risk premia in the stock and bond markets to the conditional volatility of returns and time-varying reward-to-volatility variables. I find that the relation between the expected returns on the stocks and bonds and the volatility of returns is time varying. I provide an approach to evaluating the relative importance of the time-varying volatility of returns and reward-to-volatility variables for explaining the predictability of risk premia for stock and bond returns. I show that changing reward-to-volatility variables explain more predictable variation in the risk premia for stocks and bonds than changing volatility of returns.


Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium

Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium
Author: P. Brett Hammond
Publisher:
Total Pages: 164
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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In 2001, a small group of academics and practitioners met to discuss the equity risk premium (ERP). Ten years later, in 2011, a similar discussion took place, with participants writing up their thoughts for this volume. The result is a rich set of papers that practitioners may find useful in developing their own approach to the subject.


The Equity Risk Premium

The Equity Risk Premium
Author: William N. Goetzmann
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 568
Release: 2006-11-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199881979

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What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.


Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities

Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities
Author: Pietro Veronesi
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 630
Release: 2016-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118709195

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A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape. Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature: • An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them • Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks’ influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments • Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints • The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility • Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds • Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing • Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints • Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets. Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.