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Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates

Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates
Author: Jerome L. Stein
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 276
Release: 1997
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198293064

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"This book greatly enhances our understanding of the behavior of real exchange rates. It provides an elegant model based on a solid theoretical foundation that links real exchange rates to their fundamental economic determinants and takes proper account of stock and flow considerations. The authors provide a masterful account of how changes in productivity and thrift affect the real exchange rate, and show that the long-run impact depends crucially on whether the change reflects the former fundamental (investment) or the latter (consumption). The empirical implementation uses state-of-the-art cointegration and error correction methodologies that are eminently well suited to capture the short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to its medium- to long-run equilibrium value. The empirical results are extremely encouraging, as the economic fundamentals identified by the authors can explain a substantial part of the movement in the real exchange rate of a number of countries."--Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund


Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals
Author: Luca Antonio Ricci
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It finds evidence of a strong positive relation between the CPI-based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded and nontraded goods, while statistically significant, is small. Increases in net foreign assets and in government consumption tend to be associated with appreciating real exchange rates.


What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it
Author: Mr.Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 1997-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451921675

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This paper presents a reduced-form model of the real exchange rate. Using multilateral cointegration methods, the model is implemented for the real effective exchange rates of the dollar, the mark, and the yen, over the period 1974-1993. In contrast to much other research using real exchange rates, there is evidence of significant and sensible long-run relationships for a simplified version as well as for the full version of the model. The estimated long-run relationships are used to produce dynamic equations, which outperform a random walk and produce sensible dynamic patterns in the context of an impulse response analysis.


The Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of the U. S. Dollar Relative to Other G-7 Currencies

The Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of the U. S. Dollar Relative to Other G-7 Currencies
Author: Mr.Jerome L. Stein
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 1995-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451955146

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The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.


Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals

Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals
Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1994-09-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557754516

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This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.


Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
Author: Mr.Tarhan Feyzioglu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 1997-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451853173

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An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is estimated with the cointegration technique for Finland for the period 1975-95. The estimation produced a reasonable set of equilibrium exchange rates that appreciate with positive shocks to the terms of trade, world real interest rates, and the productivity differential between Finland and its trading partners.


Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals

Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals
Author: Mr.Peter B. Clark
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 1998-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451961685

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This paper compares two approaches for examining the extent to which a country’s actual real effective exchange rate is consistent with economic fundamentals: the FEER approach, which involves calculating the real exchange rate that equates the current account at full employment with sustainable net capital flows, and the BEER approach, which uses econometric methods to establish a behavioral link between the real rate and relevant economic variables. An exchange rate model is estimated for the G-3 currencies to provide illustrative comparisons of BEERs and FEERs.


Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9401144117

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How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.


Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries

Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226386937

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The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.


Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange Rate Economics
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2007-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134801262

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First published in 2007. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence is the second edition of Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, and builds on the successful content and structure of the previous edition, but has been comprehensively updated and expanded to include additional literature on the determination of both fixed and floating exchange rates. Core topics covered include: • the purchasing power parity hypothesis and the PPP puzzle; • the monetary and portfolio-balance approaches to exchange rates; • the new open economy macroeconomics approach to exchange rates; and • the determination of exchange rates in target zone models and speculative attack models. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence also includes extensive discussion of recent econometric work on exchange rates with a particular focus on equilibrium exchange rates and measuring exchange rate misalignment, as well as discussion on the non-fundamentals-based approaches to exchange rate behaviour, such as the market microstructure approach. The book will appeal to academics and postgraduate students with an interest in all aspects of international finance and will also be of interest to practitioners concerned with issues relating to equilibrium exchange rates and the forecastability of currencies in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals.