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Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt
Author: Cansın Kemal Can
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Total Pages: 156
Release: 2021-06-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1527570789
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Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt
Author: CANSIN KEMAL. CAN
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Total Pages:
Release: 2021-08
Genre:
ISBN: 9781527569850
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Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty
Author: Rossen Rozenov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2017-03-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475587023
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The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.

Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt

Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt
Author: Michael Carlberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 220
Release: 2012-12-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642329675
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This book studies the sustainability and optimality of public debt under different scenarios: the closed economy, the small open economy, and a two-country setting. Sustainability refers to the existence and the stability of the long-run equilibrium. Optimality relates to the path of public debt that maximizes discounted utility. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the Solow model, the overlapping generations model and the infinite horizon model. The government can follow different strategies, it either fixes the deficit ratio or the tax rate. As a result, a fixed deficit ratio generally can be sustained. By contrast, a fixed tax rate generally cannot be sustained. Depending on the chosen fiscal strategy, there exists either an optimal deficit ratio or an optimal tax rate that maximizes the sum of consumption and government purchases per capita.

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia
Author: Benno Ferrarini
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 226
Release: 2012-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 113619990X
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Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.

Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth

Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth
Author: Alfred Greiner
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2014-10-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319093487
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Public debt has become a severe problem for a great many economies. While the effects of tax policies on the allocation of resources are readily derived, the mechanisms that make public deficits and debt influence the economy are not so easily understood. This book elaborates on the effects of public debt starting from the intertemporal budget constraint of the government. It is shown under which conditions a government can stick to the intertemporal budget constraint and then, demonstrated how public debt affects the growth process and welfare in market economies. The effects are derived for models with complete labor markets as well as taking into account labor market imperfections. The focus in this book is on fiscal policy issues, but it also deals with monetary policy aspects. The theoretical analysis is complemented with empirical time series analyses on debt sustainability and with panel studies dealing with the relationship between public debt and economic growth.

Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt

Sustainability and Optimality of Public Debt
Author: Michael Carlberg
Publisher: Physica
Total Pages: 240
Release: 1995-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Public debt seems to be one of the great issues of the nineties. The United States have turned from the largest creditor of the world to the largest debtor, due to dramatic budget deficits. The European Union tries to build dams against the flood, see the treaty of Maastricht. And in Germany, public debt tends to explo de, doubling within a few years. The reason for this is the immense cost of Ger man unification. I had many helpful talks with my colleague Michael Schmid (now at Bam berg). In addition, Michael Brauninger and Philipp Lichtenauer carefully discus sed with me all parts of the manuscript. Last but not least, Doris Ehrich typed the manuscript as excellently as ever. I would like to thank all of them. Contents INTRODUCTION 3 5 BRIEF SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE PART I. CLOSED ECONOMY 9 CHAPTER I. SOLOW MODEL 11 1. Fixed Deficit Ratio 11 1. 1. Simple Model 11 1. 2. Short-Run Equilibrium 12 1. 3. Long-Run Equilibrium 14 1. 4. Optimal Deficit Ratio 18 1. 5. Optimal Saving Ratio 20 1. 6. Stability 21 1. 7. Shocks 23 1. 8. Budget Surplus 29 1. 9. Numerical Example 32 1. 10. Summary 37 2. Fixed Tax Rate 38 2. 1. Simple Model 38 2. 2. Short-Run Equilibrium 39 2. 3. Long-Run Equilibrium 40 2. 4. Stability 45 2. 5. Shocks 48 2. 6. Optimal Tax Rate 56 2. 7. Optimal Saving Ratio 57 2. 8. Numerical Example 58 2. 9.

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt
Author: Issouf Samaké
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2006-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
Author: Gabriel Di Bella
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2008-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.

Sustainability of Public Debt

Sustainability of Public Debt
Author: Reinhard Neck
Publisher: MIT Press (MA)
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262280495
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In recent decades, governments have built up substantial public debt, which is often accompanied by a growing public sector and fiscal policies that neglect long-term considerations. The contributors to this CESifo volume consider whether the development of public debt in the United States and six EU countries is sustainable--that is, whether fiscal policies in these countries can be continued without creating the potential for government bankruptcy. The sustainability of public debt presents a challenge not only to public policy design but also to economic theory. This collection is the first book-length analysis of the theoretical foundations of public debt sustainability concepts and their application to the empirical study of actual budgetary policies. Conditions for public debt sustainability are derived and applied to various institutional environments. Country studies cover the United States, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland, with special emphasis in the EU chapters on the fiscal criteria for entrance into the European Monetary Union and the Stability and Growth Pact. The contributors find that in most countries, fiscal policy turns out to be sustainable in the long run and that all countries (with the possible exception of Italy) were able to return to a sustainable path after a period of unsustainability.ContributorsTorben M. Andersen, Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, Henning Bohn, Marco Buti, Sylvester Eijffinger, Lars P. Feld, Daniele Franco, Emma Galli, Olaf de Groot, Gottfried Haber, Jakob de Haan, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, Gebhard Kirchg�ssner, Reinhard Neck, Fabio Padovano, Lars Haagen Pedersen, Jan-Egbert Sturm, Koen Vermeylen Reinhard Neck is Professor of Economics at Klagenfurt University, Austria. Jan-Egbert Sturm is Professor of Applied Microeconomics and Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich.