Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF Download

Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF full book. Access full book title Probability Methods For Cost Uncertainty Analysis.

Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis

Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Author: Paul R. Garvey
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 526
Release: 2016-01-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 148221976X

Download Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to


Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis

Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Author: Paul R. Garvey
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre: Electronic books
ISBN: 9780429132865

Download Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and prof


Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis

Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis
Author: Lionel A. Galway
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2007
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0833040111

Download Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.


An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis

An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Author: Wendell Phillips Simpson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 32
Release: 1994
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

Download An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.


Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 152
Release: 2013-12-17
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118763068

Download Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.


Cost Analysis and Estimating

Cost Analysis and Estimating
Author: Willis R., Jr. Greer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1461209951

Download Cost Analysis and Estimating Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES), provides such a forum. Presen tations will focus on new and improved tools and techniques of cost analysis. This volume is the second in a series. The first was produced in conjunction with the 1989 National Meeting of ICA/NES in Washington, D.C. The articles in this volume, all refereed, were selected from about 100 submitted for presen tation at the Los Angeles meeting.


COST UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS.

COST UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS.
Author: Frank J. Husic
Publisher:
Total Pages: 23
Release: 1968
Genre:
ISBN:

Download COST UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS. Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

An important aspect of cost research is the measurement of the uncertainty inherent in the projection of system cost. Only recently have approaches utilizing such tools as statistical decision theory and probability theory been formulated. The study described here explores and evaluates three such techniques: (a) The derivation of moments technique employs equations for deriving the moments and distributions for cost elements and aggregations. (b) The Monte Carlo technique is a simulation routine. (c) The symmetric approximation is a special case of the derivation of moments technique.


Uncertainty

Uncertainty
Author: Millett Granger Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 376
Release: 1990-08-31
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 113993581X

Download Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.


Cost Estimation

Cost Estimation
Author: Gregory K. Mislick
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 342
Release: 2015-04-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118802330

Download Cost Estimation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Presents an accessible approach to the cost estimation tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support analytical and cost decisions Written with an easy-to-understand approach, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools provides comprehensive coverage of the quantitative techniques needed by professional cost estimators and for those wanting to learn about this vibrant career field. Featuring the underlying mathematical and analytical principles of cost estimation, the book focuses on the tools and methods used to predict the research and development, production, and operating and support costs for successful cost estimation in industrial, business, and manufacturing processes. The book begins with a detailed historical perspective and key terms of the cost estimating field in order to develop the necessary background prior to implementing the presented quantitative methods. The book proceeds to fundamental cost estimation methods utilized in the field of cost estimation, including working with inflation indices, regression analysis, learning curves, analogies, cost factors, and wrap rates. With a step-by-step introduction to the practicality of cost estimation and the available resources for obtaining relevant data, Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools also features: Various cost estimating tools, concepts, and techniques needed to support business decisions Multiple questions at the end of each chapter to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the discussed methods and techniques An overview of the software used in cost estimation, as well as an introduction to the application of risk and uncertainty analysis A Foreword from Dr. Douglas A. Brook, a professor in the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School, who spent many years working in the Department of Defense acquisition environment Cost Estimation: Methods and Tools is an excellent reference for academics and practitioners in decision science, operations research, operations management, business, and systems and industrial engineering, as well as a useful guide in support of professional cost estimation training and certification courses for practitioners. The book is also appropriate for graduate-level courses in operations research, operations management, engineering economics, and manufacturing and/or production processes.


Uncertainty Analysis

Uncertainty Analysis
Author: Ralph E. Thomas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 76
Release: 1982
Genre: Probabilities
ISBN:

Download Uncertainty Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle