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Price Discovery and Convergence in the Indian Commodities Market

Price Discovery and Convergence in the Indian Commodities Market
Author: Vishwanathan Iyer
Publisher:
Total Pages: 14
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine whether futures markets play a dominant role in the price discovery process. The rate of convergence of information from one market to another is analyzed to infer the efficiency of futures as an effective hedging tool.Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses a two-regime threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) and a two-regime threshold autoregression for six commodities. The regimes (or states) are defined around the expiration week of the futures contract.Findings - This paper finds evidence for price discovery process happening in the futures market in five out of six commodities. However, the rate of convergence of information is slow, particularly in the non-expiration weeks. For copper, gold and silver, the rate of convergence is almost instantaneous during the expiration week of the futures contract affirming the utility of futures contracts as an effective hedging tool. In case of chickpeas, nickel and rubber the convergence worsens during the expiration week indicating the non-usability of futures contract for hedging.Originality/value - This paper extends the framework developed by Garbade et al. by superimposing a two-regime TVAR model to quantify the price discovery process. It is the first paper to analyze the differential impact of price discovery and convergence during expiration week (compared to non-expiration weeks) for the Indian commodities market.


Farmers’ Participation in India’s Futures Markets

Farmers’ Participation in India’s Futures Markets
Author: Kushankur Dey
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 145
Release: 2021-08-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811634327

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Futures markets offer numerous advantages in the marketing of agricultural commodities, and in this context, the book examines the major factors and issues that determine the participation of India’s farmers in the futures markets. These include the efficiency of the futures markets in price discovery, the convergence of spot and futures prices, the dissemination of spot price information, and the socio-economic and exchange-related issues affecting farmer participation. It also examines the factors affecting the demand and supply of participation, and the access to futures trading services. The purpose is to identify different factors that can enhance or constrain farmer participation in the futures markets, which may include market characteristics, institutional features, socio-economic issues, and behavioural aspects of farmer participation. A number of organizations related to rural development, as well as farmer producer companies have sought to facilitate farmer participation in the forward/futures market through offering aggregation and other trading services, and the book also examines these efforts towards the exchange-traded derivative markets and the direct and indirect benefits that accrue. The book also studies the efficiency of futures markets in price discovery and price dissemination applying co-integration tests, and error correction and volatility models, using available data of wheat, rapeseed-mustard, cotton, guar seed, castor, cumin and coriander futures contracts traded in the largest agricultural commodity exchanges in India. Besides, case studies are used to examine and understand the institutional roles of aggregators in aggregation efforts towards the forward/futures market. This book covers several states and locations in India to enhance the representation and validity of the findings. It also examines representative farmer organizations which have obtained institutional membership in the forward or futures markets, and identifies areas of further research. In the current scenario, the book would be of immense importance and relevance to governments, commodity exchanges/markets, aggregators, many private and development organizations, as well as interested researchers and students.


Price Discovery and Spill-Over Impact in The Indian Commodity Futures Market

Price Discovery and Spill-Over Impact in The Indian Commodity Futures Market
Author: Chinmaya Behera
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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Price discovery and risk management are two major important economic functions of futures market. Price discovery gives competitive reference (futures) price from which spot price can be derived. The study examines price discovery and spill-over impact in the Indian futures market using metal and energy futures. Sample data consist of daily futures and spot closing price from 1st June, 2005 to 29th January 2016 for gold, silver and copper. Using cointegration and error correction mechanism, the study finds the fair price discovery in the futures market. The study also finds that price discovery takes place first in the futures market then transgresses to spot market. Ratio of standard deviation is used to check the market efficiency in the futures market and it is found that gold market is not efficient as it fails to incorporate all the information available in the market. Using BEKK model volatility spill-over impact is observed to be statistically significant in all the commodity spot and futures returns. Bidirectional shocks transmission can be observed across the commodities like gold, silver and copper which means shocks in the futures market do have impact on spot market volatility for gold, silver and copper.


The Price Discovery and Efficiency of Indian Commodity Future Market

The Price Discovery and Efficiency of Indian Commodity Future Market
Author: Rahul Roy
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 168
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN: 9783659474811

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The study investigates the performance of Multi-Commodity Exchange Futures market in terms of market efficiency and price discovery with the Johansen & Juselius (1990) co-integration model. Vector Error Correction Model has been used to expose the short-term relationship between spot and future market. The empirical results revealed that with the evidence, to support the long-run equilibrium relationships in Spot-Futures markets and the dominant role of futures in price discovery. To that extent the price formation is efficient i.e., futures markets are perfect hedge against the variations in spot-prices and the price movements in the futures market lead price formation in the spot-market. The results owes that futures market exerts a stronger influence on the spot-market and, therefore, to that extent the futures prices are able to discover prices efficiently. The empirical results thus, leads to a conclusion that the MCX futures market is matured and efficient.


Indian Commodity Market

Indian Commodity Market
Author:
Publisher: Serials Publications
Total Pages: 806
Release: 2010
Genre: Agricultural industries
ISBN: 9788183873833

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Papers presented at the Workshop cum Seminar on "Indian Commodity Market Derivatives & Risk Management : the Road Ahead", held at Puducherry during 11-12 September 2009.


Price Discovery and Volatility Spillover in the Agricultural Commodity Futures Market in India

Price Discovery and Volatility Spillover in the Agricultural Commodity Futures Market in India
Author: M Ajoy Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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In 2002, when the government permitted futures trading on most of the commodities and allowed setting up of national level exchanges, trading in agricultural commodities grew very fast with soy oil, soy bean, mustard seed and chana constituting the major share in 2013. The current study attempts to analyze the price behavior in terms of returns as well as volatility between the spot and futures markets for these four commodities. The study uses a combination of VECM and EGARCH models to analyze the data. The study finds existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures and spot prices, with the futures leading the spot. In the short run, futures returns seem to have a stronger impact on the spot returns in most of the commodities.


Commodity Derivatives Trading

Commodity Derivatives Trading
Author: Madhoo Pavaskar
Publisher: Notion Press
Total Pages: 389
Release: 2016-10-11
Genre:
ISBN: 194592621X

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Despite the long and chequered history of commodity derivatives trading in this country, extending for more than century and a half, neither the lay nor the learned, including, surprisingly, most economists and even those involved in regulation of commodity derivatives exchanges, betray lack of knowledge on the theory, working, utility, and regulation of trading in commodity derivatives of diverse hues. It is against this background, the present book is aimed at teaching the commodity derivatives exchanges, their participants, the regulator s, and the students of commodity derivatives economics and managements, both the theory and regulation of commodity derivatives trading in all its aspects. For, a commodity economy like India must aim to develop strong global commodity derivatives markets in the country to promote swift growth in agriculture, industry, and international trade by strengthening competition and competitive efficiency to improve productivity, as also proficiency in marketing in all sectors of the economy. This book is a modest step towards achieving that aim and objective.


Agricultural Commodity Futures Market

Agricultural Commodity Futures Market
Author: Gouri Prava Samal
Publisher: New India Publishing Agency
Total Pages: 4
Release: 2021-10-11
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9390591805

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Instability of commodity prices has always been a major concern of the farmers, processors, merchandisers as well as the consumers in an agriculture-dominated economy. Farmers’ direct exposure to price fluctuations makes it too risky for them to invest in other wise profitable activities. There are various ways to cope with this problem. The agriculture commodity market is one of them. It serves a risk-shifting function and can be used to lock-in prices in advance instead of relying on uncertain price developments in future. Apart from being a vehicle for risk transfer among hedgers and from hedgers to speculators, these markets also play a major role in price discovery. The primary objective of this book is to impart the basic knowledge of derivatives market, types of derivative markets, agriculture futures market, regulator of commodity market, commodity exchanges, price discovery in commodity market and awareness among various stakeholders of commodity market.