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Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia
Author: Daniel Leigh
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2009-03-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781451872064

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This paper utilizes an open-economy New Keynesian overlapping generations model, the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), to assess the macroeconomic effects of external shocks and the impact of various monetary and fiscal policy responses. The simulations assess the effect of shocks to trade, world income, and risk premia for public debt. The results suggest that under Colombia’s inflation targeting regime, which incorporates exchange rate flexibility and a highly responsive monetary policy, the economy is well poised to adjust to different external shocks. They also suggest that the potential role of fiscal policy in responding to shocks depends critically on financing conditions.


IMF Working Papers

IMF Working Papers
Author: Daniel Leigh
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre: Electronic books
ISBN:

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The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 75
Release: 2010-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451962738

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This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance.


Colombia, Selected Issues

Colombia, Selected Issues
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 76
Release: 2009
Genre: Colombia
ISBN:

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Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 86
Release: 2014-06-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498331017

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This Selected Issues paper analyzes spillover risks for Colombia. It highlights that external shocks could spill over to the Colombian economy through the country’s important and growing trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world. Colombia would be most exposed to a decline in oil prices, which could have a sizable adverse impact on the balance of payments, the fiscal accounts and growth. Growth shocks in key trading partners could also have a negative impact, particularly in the United States, which is Colombia’s main trading partner. Colombia’s fiscal rule and adjustment in the context of resource wealth is also analyzed.


Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2014-06-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498308813

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This paper discusses Colombia’s Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Arrangement. Growth is projected to remain robust in 2014 and beyond, although risks are tilted to the downside. Real GDP is projected to grow at around potential in 2014 and over the medium term, with inflation remaining within the target range of 2–4 percent. However, Colombia remains vulnerable to external risks, including a sharp decline in oil prices and a surge in global financial market volatility. The IMF staff assesses that Colombia continues to meet the qualification criteria for access to FCL resources, and recommends completion of the review under the FCL arrangement for Colombia.


Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2016-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484391616

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This paper focuses on recent economic developments as well as the role of the flexible credit line (FCL) arrangement. Despite a large external shock, Colombia’s economy showed remarkable resilience in 2015. The current account deficit reached a record level in 2015, but reserves remained stable. The banking system and corporate sector remained in good financial health. Growth will be subdued in the near future but is projected to gradually return toward potential. The FCL has served Colombia well. The previous FCL arrangements have been instrumental to cope with heightened external risks in recent years, complementing the authorities’ policy response to economic shocks.


Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2009-11-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451878680

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This paper discusses key findings of the Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) for Colombia. The FCL arrangement has provided Colombia an additional coverage against adverse external shocks, in the context of strong monetary and fiscal policies. Colombia’s strong institutional and policy frameworks have created the scope to support domestic demand with prudently expansionary macroeconomic policies. The resources from the FCL have helped to bolster confidence in the country’s ability to withstand additional external shocks. In the IMF staff’s view, Colombia continues to fully meet the FCL qualification criteria.


Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2016-05-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484367928

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This paper presents an assessment of the monetary policy stance and broad financial conditions in Colombia, which provides insights about macro-financial linkages. It also discusses how nonfinancial corporate debt and leverage have increased in recent years, supported by easy access to capital markets, abundant global liquidity, and low interest rates. While some sectors look somewhat more strained than others (oil, gas, and airlines), debt servicing capacity has also improved with recent economic growth. This paper explores three possible drivers of inflation dynamics in Colombia: exchange rate pass-through, the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, and wages. The Colombian peso depreciated in line with the decline in oil prices, pushing up tradable-goods inflation.


Colombia

Colombia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2015-08-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513537059

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This paper discusses Colombia’s Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. In the baseline scenario, growth in Colombia is expected to decelerate to 3.4 percent in 2015 but gradually return toward potential over the medium term and inflation to remain at the midpoint of the central bank’s 2–4 percent target range. The authorities are requesting a successor two-year FCL arrangement for 500 percent of quota, and cancellation of the current arrangement which expires on June 23, 2015. The IMF staff assesses that Colombia meets the qualification criteria for access to IMF resources under the FCL arrangement, and recommends its approval by the Executive Board.