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Author | : Saghir Iqbal |
Publisher | : Saghir Iqbal |
Total Pages | : 154 |
Release | : 2018-04-16 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 1717040403 |
Download Miscalculation: Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An impending nuclear holocaust is likely to happen, if the world community does not take action. A conflict that has been simmering for many years is beginning to spiral out of control. Two nuclear powers have an unresolved dispute that has increased tensions in the region. Both countries are purchasing and developing sophisticated state-of-the-art weapons that could unleash great terror and destruction on the populations of both countries – with also serious global ramifications. The world’s most dangerous flashpoint, has the highest chance of a nuclear war occurring – it is deemed by many to be more serious that the Cuban Missile Crisis and North Korea’s nuclear sabre rattling. The dispute needs to be amicably resolved between both nations and confidence building measures need to be implemented.
Author | : Anthony M. Barrett |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 19 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : Ballistic missiles |
ISBN | : |
Download False Alarms, True Dangers? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"In the post–Cold War era, it is tempting to see the threat of nuclear war between the United States and Russia as remote: Both nations' nuclear arsenals have shrunk since their Cold War peaks, and neither nation is actively threatening the other with war. A number of analysts, however, warn of the risk of an inadvertent nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia--that is, a conflict that begins when one nation misinterprets an event (such as a training exercise, a weather phenomenon, or a malfunction) as an indicator of a nuclear attack or a provocation. Understanding how miscalculations and misperceptions can lead to the use of nuclear weapons is an important step toward reducing the probability of an inadvertent nuclear conflict. At present, the United States does not appear to have a consistently used method for assessing the risk of inadvertent nuclear war. To address this gap, this report synthesizes key points from the literature on the pathways by which, and the conditions under which, misinterpretations could lead to a nuclear strike, either by U.S. or Russian forces. By shedding light on these risks, this report hopes to inform decisionmakers about measures that both nations can take to reduce the probability of an inadvertent nuclear conflict"--Publisher's description.
Author | : Hå. Wiberg |
Publisher | : Elsevier |
Total Pages | : 339 |
Release | : 2013-10-22 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 1483287637 |
Download Inadvertent Nuclear War Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since the dramatic end of the Pacific War in 1945 the threat of nuclear war has exercised the minds of many. Initial fears concerned the risk that a political crisis between the Superpowers would escalate through miltary confrontation into a 'calculated' nuclear war. Another scenario pictured a new Hitler commanding a nuclear-capable state prepared to use such weapons 'irrationally', possibly sparking a 'catalytic' nuclear war between the major Powers. More recently attention has shifted towards the risk of the 'accidental' release of nuclear weapons. While the risk of intentional conflict between the major Powers has lessened, the arsenals have only been marginally reduced, leaving the possibility of accidental release as perhaps the most threatening case. Inadvertent Nuclear War presents the risk in terms of the reliability and instability of the human and technical systems governing release, with contributions ranging from the engineering of computer software to the psychology of the chain of command. As Dr Wiberg states in his introduction, "No known technical construction, human being or social organization is absolutely failsafe."
Author | : Barry R. Posen |
Publisher | : Cornell University Press |
Total Pages | : 295 |
Release | : 2014-01-13 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 080146837X |
Download Inadvertent Escalation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Author | : Patricia Lewis |
Publisher | : Chatham House Publishers |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9781784130145 |
Download Too Close for Comfort Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Cases of near nuclear use due to misunderstanding demonstrate the importance of the human judgment factor in nuclear decisionmaking. This report applies a risk lens, based on factoring probability and consequence, to a set of cases of near use and instances of sloppy practices from 1962 to 2013.
Author | : Seth Baum |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper develops a mathematical modeling framework using fault trees and Poisson processes for analyzing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war from U.S. or Russian misinterpretation of false alarms in early warning systems, and for assessing the potential value of inadvertence risk reduction options. The model also uses publicly available information on early-warning systems, near-miss incidents, and other factors to estimate probabilities of a U.S.-Russia crisis, the rates of false alarms, and the probabilities that leaders will launch missiles in response to a false alarm. The paper discusses results, uncertainties, limitations, and policy implications.
Author | : Stewart Britten |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 56 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : |
Download The Invisible Event Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Dianne DeMille |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 7 |
Release | : 1988 |
Genre | : Nuclear crisis stability |
ISBN | : 9780662158974 |
Download Accidental Nuclear War Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Daniel Frei |
Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers |
Total Pages | : 296 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : |
Download Risks of Unintentional Nuclear War Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
To find more information about Rowman and Littlefield titles, please visit www.rowmanlittlefield.com.
Author | : Scott Douglas Sagan |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 306 |
Release | : 2020-05-05 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 0691213062 |
Download The Limits of Safety Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Environmental tragedies such as Chernobyl and the Exxon Valdez remind us that catastrophic accidents are always possible in a world full of hazardous technologies. Yet, the apparently excellent safety record with nuclear weapons has led scholars, policy-makers, and the public alike to believe that nuclear arsenals can serve as a secure deterrent for the foreseeable future. In this provocative book, Scott Sagan challenges such optimism. Sagan's research into formerly classified archives penetrates the veil of safety that has surrounded U.S. nuclear weapons and reveals a hidden history of frightening "close calls" to disaster.