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Measuring EU Inflation

Measuring EU Inflation
Author: John Astin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN: 9783030688073

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The HICP is a consumer price index which was designed to provide measures of inflation in EU member states calculated using similar methods and thus comparable one with another. The HICP now tracks the inflation rates covering over 500 million Europeans, including the UK, and is also produced by other countries such as the USA. John Astin was the EU statistician in charge of the initial development of this important index and he has the best knowledge of how it was developed in the 1990s. This book is a history of the main development period of the HICP, up to the year 2002 when Astin left the European Commission. It will be of interest to a wide range of readers, not only in the UK but globally. Types of readers are likely to include: economists, economic statisticians, national statistics offices, universities, libraries, government finance/economic ministries, international organizations such as UN, ILO, OECD, EU, Eurostat, ECB, and central banks, as well as individuals who are interested in the construction of consumer price indices. This book begins by explaining the background to the HICP project, both from an economic and a political viewpoint, and describes the specific needs for harmonized price indices resulting from the Maastricht treaty of 1992. It analyses the process of establishing the necessary procedures for taking this urgent work forward and gives details of the technical issues involved, and the critical issue of drafting legal acts which would be necessary to ensure full compliance with the new rules. It includes analysis of products, price collection issues, quality adjustment, timing, and a host of other issues, and discusses the arguments which had to be resolved, as well as some human aspects of the process too. It also looks at the funding aspects, the recruitment of specialist consultants, the legal processes and the organization of meetings, both in Luxembourg and in other countries.


The Euro, Inflation and Consumers' Perceptions

The Euro, Inflation and Consumers' Perceptions
Author: Paolo Giovane
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2008-04-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540783709

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On 1 January 2002, euro banknotes and coins were introduced in twelve EU Member States. Three more countries joined in the following years, and over 300 million people now use the euro in their daily transactions. The currency changeover was a technical success. From the very start, however, the vast majority of euro area citizens held the single currency responsible for a sharp rise in prices and a subsequent decline in their personal economic fortunes. This book puts forward convincing empirical evidence, primarily drawn from Italy’s experience, to establish whether the introduction of the euro has had a major impact on prices, and if not, why so many people believe it has. Its significance lies not only in the documentation of a historic event, but also and more importantly, in the lessons it provides, which concern the public’s understanding of inflation, the correct assessment of the effects of the single currency, and the need for appropriate measures when other countries adopt the euro.


Measuring Core Inflation

Measuring Core Inflation
Author: Danny Quah
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 1995
Genre: Inflation (Finance)
ISBN:

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Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe

Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe
Author: John H. Rogers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2001
Genre: Convergence (Economics)
ISBN:

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"If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences."


Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area

Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area
Author: Emil Stavrev
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2006-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.


PCCI, Data-rich Measure of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area

PCCI, Data-rich Measure of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN: 9789289944168

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This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures widespread developments across the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) basket and that it is the persistent component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low-frequency common component, i.e. a component driven by shocks or factors that are relevant for all inflation series and capturing cycles longer than three years. The PCCI is a weighted average of these common components. It is an alternative to the typical exclusion-based measures used to gauge underlying inflation (e.g. HICP excluding food and energy), as it does not a priori exclude any HICP items. It exhibits a set of desirable properties as a measure of underlying inflation, and it is a good tracker of more lasting inflationary developments (judging by smoothness and bias). Furthermore, it is timely and signals turning points with some lead, while acting as an attractor for headline inflation.