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| Author | : Charles Steven Melching |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 220 |
| Release | : 1987 |
| Genre | : Flood forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Shreeda Maskey |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 184 |
| Release | : 2004-11-23 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0203026829 |
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
| Author | : Keith J Beven |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 685 |
| Release | : 2014-01-13 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1783263121 |
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 884 |
| Release | : 1991 |
| Genre | : Hydrology |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 1424 |
| Release | : 1991 |
| Genre | : Water |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
A detailed and comprehensive description of the state of the art in the field of flood forecasting opens this work. Advantages and shortcomings of currently available methods are identified and discussed. Amongst others, one important aspect considers the most exigent weak point of today's forecasting systems: The representation of all the fundamentally different event specific patterns of flood formation with one single set of model parameters. The study exemplarily proposes an alternative for overcoming this restriction by taking into account the different process characteristics of flood events via a dynamic parameterisation strategy. Other fundamental shortcomings in current approaches especially restrict the potential for real time flash flood forecasting, namely the considerable computational requirements together with the rather cumbersome operation of reliable physically based hydrologic models. The new PAI-OFF methodology (Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting) considers these problems and offers a way out of the general dilemma. It combines the reliability and predictive power of physically based, hydrologic models with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages feature extremely low computation times, absolute robustness and straightforward operation. Such qualities easily allow for predicting flash floods in small catchments taking into account precipitation forecasts, whilst extremely basic computational requirements open the way for online Monte Carlo analysis of the forecast uncertainty. The study encompasses a detailed analysis of hydrological modeling and a problem specific artificial intelligence approach in the form of artificial neural networks, which build the PAI-OFF methodology. Herein, the synthesis of process modelling and artificial neural networks is achieved by a special training procedure. It optimizes the network according to the patterns of possible catchment.
| Author | : L.M. Brush |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 684 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 940092450X |
About four years ago Dr. Gilbert White visited China and sowed the seeds of this project through conversations with Drs. Huang and Gong of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Mr. Long of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission. After some additional rounds of communications by letter, the plan for a workshop evolved and Drs. Wolman and Brush visited with Dr. Sabadell of the Nat_ional Science Foundation to begin the initial planning. In March 1987 Dr. Brush visited China and the details were worked out for the October 1987 workshop. At the outset it was recognized that the 10 American scientists and engineers ltad very Ii ttle knowledge of the Yellow River and none had ever seen it. Therefore, it became important that field trips be scheduled before the workshop to better set the stage for fruitful discussions. It was also acknowledged that the American participants could not present papers about the Yellow River per se so their offerings reflected their general knowledge of rivers using other rivers as examples. On the other hand the Chinese participants were all well into the difficult problems of harnessing the Yellow River and made their presentations accordingly. Despite these differences the subject matter was the unifying thread and cross communication was excellent.
| Author | : Maurizio Mazzoleni |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2017-03-16 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1351652567 |
In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
| Author | : Punit Kumar Bhola |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Thomas E. Adams |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 485 |
| Release | : 2016-04-04 |
| Genre | : Nature |
| ISBN | : 0128018593 |
Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective describes flood forecast systems and operations as they currently exist at national and regional centers around the globe, focusing on the technical aspects of flood forecast systems. This book includes the details of data flow, what data is used, quality control, the hydrologic and hydraulic models used, and the unique problems of each country or system, such as glacial dam failures, ice jams, sparse data, and ephemeral streams and rivers. Each chapter describes the system, including details about its strengths and weaknesses, and covers lessons learned. This helpful resource facilitates sharing knowledge that will lead to improvements of existing systems and provides a valuable reference to those wishing to develop new forecast systems by drawing on best practices. Covers global systems allowing readers to see a worldwide perspective with different approaches used by existing flood forecast systems Provides historical coverage allowing readers to understand why forecast systems have developed as they have and to see how specific systems have dealt with common problems encountered Presents a vision of what appears to be the future of hydrologic forecasting and difficulties facing hydrologic forecasting Provides a helpful resource to facilitate improvements to existing systems based on a best practices approach
