Implications Of An Increasing Conversion Risk Of Contingent Convertible Bonds On Share Prices PDF Download

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Implications of an Increasing Conversion Risk of Contingent Convertible Bonds on Share Prices

Implications of an Increasing Conversion Risk of Contingent Convertible Bonds on Share Prices
Author: Silvio Pasquale
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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After the financial crisis of 2007/08, national regulators tightened capital and liquidity rules for financial institutions. The new capital requirements led to an emergence of contingent convertible bond issuances of banks that convert into equity when a predefined trigger is reached. So far it has not been observable how market prices of contingent convertible bonds or bank shares react if the conversion probability increases. In this thesis, two Swiss banks that have issued contingent convertible bonds, which trigger based on the reported Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio, are analysed. It is examined how their share prices may react in a scenario of surged conversion risk. The basis build a Monte Carlo model that estimates conversion risk and a cash flow model that estimates share values. Evidence is presented that Tier 1 ratios follow a mean reverting process and that the management and shareholders have the power to increase the likelihood that the process reaches the trigger ratio. Moreover, for both banks an augmented conversion risk can enhance share values, although the conversion of some bonds into shares has diluting effects. It can be concluded that there exist some moral hazard issues since the management or shareholders can be incentivised to enforce a conversion or, at least, increase the probability of such an event.


Contingent Convertibles [Cocos]: A Potent Instrument For Financial Reform

Contingent Convertibles [Cocos]: A Potent Instrument For Financial Reform
Author: George M Von Furstenberg
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2014-08-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814619914

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Contingent Convertibles (CoCos) represent debt that is subject to being converted automatically into common equity under pre-specified terms of conversion if the chosen regulatory capital ratio falls to a level triggering conversion. CoCos are that subspecies of contingent capital that references regulatory (Basel III) concepts in its triggers. From 2014, trigger points are set by common equity (Common Equity Tier 1 [CET1]) in percent of risk-weighted assets [RWA] or of more complicated measures of total exposure to a variety of risks, particularly credit risk. This is the first comprehensive book on CoCos, an innovative instrument that has attracted growing attention since it was first issued in 2009.The book is mostly concerned with going-concern ‘recovery-’ rather than ‘resolution-’ CoCos, because avoiding failure and costly disruption of financial networks without government financing is the first order of business. CoCos hold a high promise of providing fully loss-absorbing equity capital when it is most needed and least available to financial institutions. Yet, having grown out of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, they are still an ‘infant’ reform instrument in many respects. Few of the instrument's design features (or even the rating, regulatory, and tax treatments) are entirely settled. This book seeks to move the discussion toward, and then past, the main decision points so that CoCos can prove their value for contingency planning and self-insurance all over the world. It is intended to increase the ability of issuers and investors to analyze and understand the different kinds of CoCos.


The Handbook of Hybrid Securities

The Handbook of Hybrid Securities
Author: Jan De Spiegeleer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 421
Release: 2014-05-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118449991

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Introducing a revolutionary new quantitative approach to hybrid securities valuation and risk management To an equity trader they are shares. For the trader at the fixed income desk, they are bonds (after all, they pay coupons, so what's the problem?). They are hybrid securities. Neither equity nor debt, they possess characteristics of both, and carry unique risks that cannot be ignored, but are often woefully misunderstood. The first and only book of its kind, The Handbook of Hybrid Securities dispels the many myths and misconceptions about hybrid securities and arms you with a quantitative, practical approach to dealing with them from a valuation and risk management point of view. Describes a unique, quantitative approach to hybrid valuation and risk management that uses new structural and multi-factor models Provides strategies for the full range of hybrid asset classes, including convertible bonds, preferreds, trust preferreds, contingent convertibles, bonds labeled "additional Tier 1," and more Offers an expert review of current regulatory climate regarding hybrids, globally, and explores likely political developments and their potential impact on the hybrid market The most up-to-date, in-depth book on the subject, this is a valuable working resource for traders, analysts and risk managers, and a indispensable reference for regulators


Contingent Convertible Bonds, Corporate Hybrid Securities and Preferred Shares

Contingent Convertible Bonds, Corporate Hybrid Securities and Preferred Shares
Author: Marcin Liberadzki
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 229
Release: 2019-06-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319925016

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This book is a comprehensive guide to the new generation of hybrid securities: subordinated and perpetual bonds with deferrable coupon first issued around 2003, and the youngest member of the hybrids family named CoCos (contingent convertibles) being a product of Basel III or European Union CRD IV regime (2014). Contingent capital constitutes a contractual recapitalization mechanism for troubled financial institutions. An increasing number of European banks have issued CoCo bonds in order to bolster their capital ratios. Following the EU pattern, CoCos issues have become increasingly popular within banks in Asia and the Pacific. The EU regulatory treatment of the contingent convertibles issued by banks and insurers together with bank bail-in instruments is at the forefront of the book. Furthermore, the book provides an overview of hybrids pricing and risk assessment approach and covers the non-voting preferred stocks as another hybrids class.


The Squam Lake Report

The Squam Lake Report
Author: Kenneth R. French
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 182
Release: 2010-05-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400835801

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A nonpartisan plan of action for fixing the global economy from fifteen of the world's leading economists In the fall of 2008, fifteen of the world's leading economists—representing the broadest spectrum of economic opinion—gathered at New Hampshire's Squam Lake. Their goal: the mapping of a long-term plan for financial regulation reform. The Squam Lake Report distills the wealth of insights from the ongoing collaboration that began at these meetings and provides a revelatory, unified, and coherent voice for fixing our troubled and damaged financial markets. As an alternative to the patchwork solutions and ideologically charged proposals that have dominated other discussions, the Squam Lake group sets forth a clear nonpartisan plan of action to transform the regulation of financial markets—not just for the current climate—but for generations to come. Arguing that there has been a conflict between financial institutions and society, these diverse experts present sound and transparent prescriptions to reduce this divide. They look at the critical holes in the existing regulatory framework for handling complex financial institutions, retirement savings, and credit default swaps. They offer ideas for new financial instruments designed to recapitalize banks without burdening taxpayers. To lower the risk that large banks will fail, the authors call for higher capital requirements as well as a systemic regulator who is part of the central bank. They collectively analyze where the financial system has failed, and how these weak points should be overhauled. Combining an immense depth of academic, private sector, and public policy experience, The Squam Lake Report contains urgent recommendations that will positively influence everyone's financial well-being—all who care about the world's economic health need to pay attention.


Valuation of Convertible Bonds when Investors Act Strategically

Valuation of Convertible Bonds when Investors Act Strategically
Author: Christian Koziol
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3322820165

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Christian Koziol shows that various conversion strategies for convertible bonds can be optimal which result in different values for stocks and convertible bonds. A comparative static analysis examines the differences between the properties of the optimal conversion strategies and between the asset values for three conversion variants.


Handbook of Hybrid Instruments

Handbook of Hybrid Instruments
Author: Israel Nelken
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2000-07-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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An indispensable tool to steer readers thought the complex maze of hybrid instruments! Hybrid instruments - essentially bonds with an equity component - are found in a multitude of guises. This generic heading encompasses a seemingly endless array of financial instruments, including convertible bonds, mandatory convertibles, reverse convertibles, preferred shares, ELKS, DECS and Lyons. Within each one of these instruments are found a wide range of variations and features. These include reset, negative pledge, screw and forced conversion clauses, as well as step up coupons, call schedules, call options with soft and hard protection etc. The range of possibilities can seem bewildering, but it is this very flexibility which proves a huge attraction for investors, issuers and financial institutions. On the sell side companies issue these securities and corporate service departments advise on the type of options to include in them. On the buy side, investment managers seek to build portfolios with limited risk exposure using these securities and hedge funds utilise arbitrage opportunities between the convertible bond and the common share. The opportunities are endless but the seemingly labyrinthine complexities can prove daunting. The Handbook of Hybrid Instruments helps steer a clear path through the maze. Izzy Nelken has drawn together a team of experts to provide in-depth analysis of many of the key issues that both sellers and buyers require in order to operate effectively and profitably. A general introduction is followed by specific information on key clauses and variations, valuation methods, the impact on a firm's value following the public issuance of convertibles, details on when an issuer should call a convertible and the impact of these provisions on the price, the difficult requirement of input data to make sense of the models, indexes and reset convertibles. Finally, a highly useful glossary is provided of all the key terms used in this field. An analytical CD is also provided with the book, containing sample software of ConvB++. ConvB++ combines complex state of the art models with a simple, user friendly interface to assess fair values prices and to hedge parameters of hybrid instruments. The Handbook of Hybrid Instruments is an indispensable explanatory and analytical tool for all professionals looking for the latest thinking on convertibles from some of the world's leading experts.


Explaining the Pricing of Contingent Convertible Bonds

Explaining the Pricing of Contingent Convertible Bonds
Author: Marco Mengotti
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis presents a comprehensive analysis of contingent convertible bonds. CoCo bonds automatically convert from debt to equity if a predetermined ratio of equity capital to risk-weighted assets is undercut. Since the recent financial crisis undeniably revealed that the capital requirements must be continuously adjusted to the changing circumstances in order to ensure a functional regulation, there is presently a great demand for action concerning the capital endowments of banks. Since the conversion trigger is a crucial characteristic of contingent convertible bonds, this work analyses the conversion margins for one hundred CoCo bonds since 2012 and elucidates a methodology to estimate conversion probabilities for future quarters. It is subsequently researched, whether potential coherences between the conversion margins and the observable market prices can be found. Results reveal that the observed capital ratios ought to decrease on average by about 50 percent to force a conversion. No significant correlation between correlation margins and prices can be determined. In summary this can be explained by the high conversion margins and the rather short data time series.