Impact Of Demographic Changes On Inflation And The Macroeconomy PDF Download
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Author | : Mr.Jong-Won Yoon |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2014-11-24 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1498330649 |
Download Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
Author | : Jong-won Yoon |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2018 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Ongoing demographic changes have brought about a substantial shift in the size and age composition of the population, which are having a significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings--particularly regarding inflation--we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
Author | : Mr.Niklas J Westelius |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 2017-01-18 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1475569599 |
Download The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.
Author | : Patrick A. Imam |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 2013-09-06 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1484307291 |
Download Shock from Graying Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in unemployment—compared to the past. We examine another aspect that could explain this empirical finding, namely the demographic shift to an older society. The paper first clarifies potential transmission channels that could explain why monetary policy effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. It then uses Bayesian estimation techniques for the U.S., Canada, Japan, U.K., and Germany to confirm a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over time with regards to unemployment and inflation. After proving the existence of a panel co-integration relationship between ageing and a weakening of monetary policy, the study uses dynamic panel OLS techniques to attribute this weakening of monetary policy effectiveness to demographic changes. The paper concludes with policy implications.
Author | : Mr. Vimal V Thakoor |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 43 |
Release | : 2022-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change in an Aging World Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of these three changes in a common framework. Simulation results suggest that while aging drags down the real interest rate, climate change puts upward pressure on the real interest rate and inflation. As climate change intensifies, it will be the dominant factor shaping the macroeconomic variables. This results in higher inflation and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, requiring tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The results further suggest that economic uncertainty induced by climate change amplifies these effects of climate change.
Author | : Mr.David Amaglobeli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 24 |
Release | : 2016-09-27 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 147554295X |
Download How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?
Author | : Ronald Demos Lee |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : Aging |
ISBN | : |
Download Macroeconomic Implications of Demographic Changes Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Charles Goodhart |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2020-08-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3030426572 |
Download The Great Demographic Reversal Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author | : John B. Shoven |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 444 |
Release | : 2011-01-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226754758 |
Download Demography and the Economy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Demographics is a vital field of study for understanding social and economic change and it has attracted attention in recent years as concerns have grown over the aging populations of developed nations. Demographic studies help make sense of key aspects of the economy, offering insight into trends in fertility, mortality, immigration, and labor force participation, as well as age, gender, and race specific trends in health and disability. Demography and the Economy explores the connections between demography and economics, paying special attention to what demographic trends can reveal about the sustainability of traditional social security programs and the larger implications for economic growth. The volume brings together some of the leading scholars working at the border between the two disciplines, and it provides an eclectic overview of both fields. Contributors also offer deeper analysis of a variety of issues such as the impact of greater wealth on choices about marriage and childbearing and the effects of aging populations on housing prices, Social Security, and Medicare.
Author | : Mr.Jong-Won Yoon |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2014-11-24 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 149839678X |
Download Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.