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Hierarchical Bayesian Methods for Evaluation of Traffic Project Efficacy

Hierarchical Bayesian Methods for Evaluation of Traffic Project Efficacy
Author: Andrew N. Olsen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 114
Release: 2011
Genre: Electronic dissertations
ISBN:

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Using the models selected for analysis, it was determined that cable barriers are quite effective at reducing sever crashes and cross-median crashes on Utah highways. Raised medians are also largely effective at reducing sever crashes. The results of before and after analyses are highly valuable to Departments of Transportation in identifying effective projects and in determining which roadway segments will benefit most from their implementation.


Modeling Multilevel Data in Traffic Safety

Modeling Multilevel Data in Traffic Safety
Author: Hoong Chor Chin
Publisher: Nova Science Publishers
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN: 9781606922705

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Background: In the study of traffic system safety, statistical models have been broadly applied to establish the relationships between the traffic crash occurrence and various risk factors. Most of the existing methods, such as the generalised linear regression models, assume that each observation (e.g. a crash or a vehicle involvement) in the estimation procedure corresponds to an individual situation. Hence, the residuals from the models exhibit independence. Problem: However, this "independence" assumption may often not hold true since multilevel data structures exist extensively because of the data collection and clustering process. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations may lead to production of models with unreliable parameter estimates and statistical inferences. Method: Following a literature review of crash prediction models, this book proposes a 5 T-level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level -- Traffic site level -- Traffic crash level -- Driver-vehicle unit level -- Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To model properly the potential between-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is employed. Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to calibrate the proposed hierarchical models. Two Bayesian measures, viz. the Deviance Information Criterion and Cross-Validation Predictive Densities, are adapted to establish the model suitability. Illustrations: The proposed method is illustrated using two case studies in Singapore: 1) a crash-frequency prediction model which takes into account Traffic site level and Time level; 2) a crash-severity prediction model which takes into account Traffic crash level and Driver-vehicle unit level. Conclusion: Comparing the predictive abilities of the proposed models against those of traditional methods, the study demonstrates the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and illustrates the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical approach in modelling multilevel structure of traffic safety data.


Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling a Complete Guide

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling a Complete Guide
Author: Gerardus Blokdyk
Publisher: 5starcooks
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2018-10-22
Genre:
ISBN: 9780655435778

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Do you monitor the effectiveness of your Bayesian hierarchical modeling activities? How do we Improve Bayesian hierarchical modeling service perception, and satisfaction? What situation(s) led to this Bayesian hierarchical modeling Self Assessment? How do you use Bayesian hierarchical modeling data and information to support organizational decision making and innovation? Are there Bayesian hierarchical modeling problems defined? Defining, designing, creating, and implementing a process to solve a challenge or meet an objective is the most valuable role... In EVERY group, company, organization and department. Unless you are talking a one-time, single-use project, there should be a process. Whether that process is managed and implemented by humans, AI, or a combination of the two, it needs to be designed by someone with a complex enough perspective to ask the right questions. Someone capable of asking the right questions and step back and say, 'What are we really trying to accomplish here? And is there a different way to look at it?' This Self-Assessment empowers people to do just that - whether their title is entrepreneur, manager, consultant, (Vice-)President, CxO etc... - they are the people who rule the future. They are the person who asks the right questions to make Bayesian hierarchical modeling investments work better. This Bayesian hierarchical modeling All-Inclusive Self-Assessment enables You to be that person. All the tools you need to an in-depth Bayesian hierarchical modeling Self-Assessment. Featuring 680 new and updated case-based questions, organized into seven core areas of process design, this Self-Assessment will help you identify areas in which Bayesian hierarchical modeling improvements can be made. In using the questions you will be better able to: - diagnose Bayesian hierarchical modeling projects, initiatives, organizations, businesses and processes using accepted diagnostic standards and practices - implement evidence-based best practice strategies aligned with overall goals - integrate recent advances in Bayesian hierarchical modeling and process design strategies into practice according to best practice guidelines Using a Self-Assessment tool known as the Bayesian hierarchical modeling Scorecard, you will develop a clear picture of which Bayesian hierarchical modeling areas need attention. Your purchase includes access details to the Bayesian hierarchical modeling self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows your organization exactly what to do next. You will receive the following contents with New and Updated specific criteria: - The latest quick edition of the book in PDF - The latest complete edition of the book in PDF, which criteria correspond to the criteria in... - The Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard, and... - Example pre-filled Self-Assessment Excel Dashboard to get familiar with results generation ...plus an extra, special, resource that helps you with project managing. INCLUDES LIFETIME SELF ASSESSMENT UPDATES Every self assessment comes with Lifetime Updates and Lifetime Free Updated Books. Lifetime Updates is an industry-first feature which allows you to receive verified self assessment updates, ensuring you always have the most accurate information at your fingertips.


Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009: Golden Jubilee

Transportation and Traffic Theory 2009: Golden Jubilee
Author: William H. K. Lam
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 743
Release: 2009-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 144190820X

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th It is our great privilege and honor to present the proceedings of the 18 International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT), held at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong, China on 16-18 July 2009. th The 18 ISTTT is jointly organized by the Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies and Department of Civil and Structural Engineering of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. The ISTTT series is the main gathering for the world’s transportation and traffic theorists, and those who are interested in contributing to or gaining a deep understanding of traffic and transportation phenomena in order to better plan, design and manage the transportation system. Although it embraces a wide range of topics, from traffic flow theories and demand modeling to road safety and logistics and supply chain modeling, the ISTTT is hallmarked by its intellectual innovation, research and development excellence in the treatment of real-world transportation and traffic problems. The ISTTT prides itself in the extremely high quality of its proceedings. Previous ISTTT conferences were held in Warren, Michigan (1959), London (1963), New York (1965), Karlsruhe (1968), Berkeley, California (1971), Sydney (1974), Kyoto (1977), Toronto (1981), Delft (1984), Cambridge, Massachusetts (1987), Yokohama (1990), Berkeley, California (1993), Lyon (1996), Jerusalem (1999), Adelaide (2002), College Park, Maryland (2005), and London (2007). th th This 18 ISTTT celebrates the 50 Anniversary of this premier conference series.


Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition
Author: Andrew Gelman
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 677
Release: 2013-11-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1439840954

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Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.


Transportation Safety Data and Analysis

Transportation Safety Data and Analysis
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 170
Release: 2010
Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN:

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In recent years, advanced statistical methods are being utilized in traffic safety studies to more accurately determine the effectiveness of roadway safety measures. This report explains the process wherein a hierarchical Bayesian model is developed as a tool to analyze the effectiveness of two types of road safety measures: raised medians and cable barrier.


Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 714
Release: 2015-08-03
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 111901798X

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Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.