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Fundamental Uncertainty

Fundamental Uncertainty
Author: Silva Marzetti Dall'aste Brandolini
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 369
Release: 2016-06-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230305687

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This volume addresses the subject of uncertainty from the point of view of an extended conception of rationality. In particular, the contributions explore the premises and implications of plausible reasoning when probabilities are non-measurable or unknown, and when the space of possible events is only partially identified.


Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit
Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
Total Pages: 401
Release: 2006-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1602060053

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A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.


Investment under Uncertainty

Investment under Uncertainty
Author: Robert K. Dixit
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 484
Release: 2012-07-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400830176

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How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.


Fundamental Constants

Fundamental Constants
Author: Boris M. Menin
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2019-02-27
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 152753037X

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The book is devoted to one of the important areas of theoretical and experimental physics—the calculation of the accuracy of measurements of fundamental physical constants. To achieve this goal, numerous methods and criteria have been proposed. However, all of them are focused on identifying a posteriori uncertainty caused by the idealization of the model and its subsequent computerization in comparison with the physical system. This book focuses on formulating an a priori interaction between the level of a detailed description of a material object (the number of registered quantities) and the lowest uncertainty in measuring a physical constant. It contains the materials necessary for the optimal design of models describing a physical phenomenon. It will appeal to scientists and engineers, as well as university students.


Moral Uncertainty

Moral Uncertainty
Author: William MacAskill
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 237
Release: 2020
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198722273

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About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.


Uncertainty in Economics

Uncertainty in Economics
Author: Peter A. Diamond
Publisher:
Total Pages: 584
Release: 1978
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The First Edition, published in 1978, brought together classic and modern thinking in the economics of uncertainty and provided the first text in the area. This Second Edition includes three new articles, added material on search theory, an additional preface, and updated references. Articles, introduced with brief commentaries, are divided into three broad sections: theory of choice under uncertainty, general equilibrium models of financial institutions, and models of the effects of uncertainty on market institutions.


Uncertainty in Economics

Uncertainty in Economics
Author: Julia Köhn
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 203
Release: 2017-07-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319553518

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In this book the author develops a new approach to uncertainty in economics, which calls for a fundamental change in the methodology of economics. It provides a comprehensive overview and critical appraisal of the economic theory of uncertainty and shows that uncertainty was originally conceptualized both as an epistemic and an ontological problem. As a result of the economic professions’ attempt to become acknowledged as a science, the more problematic aspect of ontological uncertainty has been neglected and the subjective probability approach to uncertainty became dominant in economic theory. A careful analysis of ontological theories of uncertainty explains the blindness of modern economics to economic phenomena such as instability, slumps or excessive booms. Based on these findings the author develops a new approach that legitimizes a New Uncertainty Paradigm in economics.


Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems

Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems
Author: Reuben R. McDaniel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 220
Release: 2005-03-11
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9783540237730

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Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.


Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 668
Release: 1994-01-01
Genre: Science
ISBN: 030904894X

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The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.