Forecasting Crude Oil Prices PDF Download
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Author | : Yoshua Bengio |
Publisher | : Now Publishers Inc |
Total Pages | : 145 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Computational learning theory |
ISBN | : 1601982941 |
Download Learning Deep Architectures for AI Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Theoretical results suggest that in order to learn the kind of complicated functions that can represent high-level abstractions (e.g. in vision, language, and other AI-level tasks), one may need deep architectures. Deep architectures are composed of multiple levels of non-linear operations, such as in neural nets with many hidden layers or in complicated propositional formulae re-using many sub-formulae. Searching the parameter space of deep architectures is a difficult task, but learning algorithms such as those for Deep Belief Networks have recently been proposed to tackle this problem with notable success, beating the state-of-the-art in certain areas. This paper discusses the motivations and principles regarding learning algorithms for deep architectures, in particular those exploiting as building blocks unsupervised learning of single-layer models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines, used to construct deeper models such as Deep Belief Networks.
Author | : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 1991-10-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451951116 |
Download Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Author | : Hassan Khazem |
Publisher | : LAP Lambert Academic Publishing |
Total Pages | : 104 |
Release | : 2011-10 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9783846529416 |
Download Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Crude oil is the commodity de jour and its pricing is of paramount importance to the layperson as well as to any responsible government. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric pricing models is the forecasting accuracy. Historically, linear and non-linear time series models were used. Although, a great success was achieved in that regard, yet there were no definite and universal conclusions drawn. The crude oil forecasting field is still wide open for improvement, especially when applying different forecasting models and alternative techniques. Toward this end, the proposed research implemented Artificial Neural Network models (ANN). The models will forecast the daily crude oil futures prices from 1996 to 2006, listed in NYMEX. Due to the nonlinearity presented by the test results of the crude oil pricing, it is expected that the ANN models will improve forecasting accuracy. An evaluation of the outcomes of the forecasts among different models was done to authenticate that this is undeniably the situation.
Author | : Adalat Muradov |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 184 |
Release | : 2019-04-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3030114945 |
Download World Market Price of Oil Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.
Author | : Shiu-Sheng Chen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2015 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil-sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (one-month-ahead predictions), using both in- and out-of-sample tests. In particular, the forecasts based on oil-sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no-change forecasts. For example, using the NYSE Arca (AMEX) oil index as a predictor, the one-month-ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22% (for the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast based the AMEX oil index is significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. The novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price.
Author | : Abir Bilal Al-Khaboriyah |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 180 |
Release | : 2017 |
Genre | : Petroleum products |
ISBN | : |
Download Fractional Integrated Time Series Models for Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Noureddine Krichene |
Publisher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2008-05-01 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781451869927 |
Download Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.
Author | : Benjamin Beckers |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 32 |
Release | : 2015-11-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513523899 |
Download Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.
Author | : Poh Giek Ding |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Forecasting Crude Oil Prices by Using Exponential Smoothing and Garch Method Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Bassam Fattouh |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 25 |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : Petroleum products |
ISBN | : 9781907555442 |
Download The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle