Fiscal R Star Fiscal Monetary Tensions And Implications For Policy PDF Download
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| Author | : Marijn A. Bolhuis |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 56 |
| Release | : 2024-08-09 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Fiscal R-Star: Fiscal-Monetary Tensions and Implications for Policy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since the Global Financial Crisis, fiscal policy in advanced economies has become more “active” – that is, increasingly unresponsive to rising debt levels. This paper explores tensions between active fiscal and monetary policies by introducing the concept of “fiscal r-star,” which is the real interest rate required to stabilize debt levels when the primary balance is set exogenously, output is growing at potential, and inflation is at target. It is proposed that the difference between monetary r-star and fiscal r-star—referred to as the “fiscal monetary gap”—is a proxy for fiscal-monetary policy tensions. An analysis of over 140 years of data from 16 advanced economies shows that larger fiscal-monetary gaps are associated with rising debt levels, higher inflation, financial repression, lower real returns on bonds and cash, with elevated risks of future debt, inflation, currency, housing, and systemic crises. Current estimates indicate that fiscal-monetary tensions are at historic highs. Given the tepid growth outlook, growth-enhancing reforms and fiscal consolidation, among other policy adjustments, may be needed to attenuate fiscal-monetary tensions over time.
| Author | : Neil Shenai |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 241 |
| Release | : 2018-09-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319913468 |
Download Social Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
How do market participants construct stable markets? Why do crises that seem inevitable after-the-fact routinely take market participants by surprise? What forces trigger financial panics, and why does uncertainty lead to market volatility? How do economic elites respond to financial distress, and why are some regulatory interventions more effective than others? Social Finance: Shadow Banking during the Global Financial Crisis answers these questions by presenting a new, economic conventions-based model of financial crises. This model emerges from a theoretical synthesis of several intellectual traditions, including Keynesian epistemology, Hyman Minsky’s asset market theory, economic sociology, and international relations theory. Social Finance uses this new paradigm to explain instability in the global shadow banking system during the global financial crisis. And it presents the results of interviews with some of the world’s leading investors – who saw over $2 trillion in annual order flows and managed over $160 billion in assets – to provide first-hand accounts of markets in crisis. Written in accessible prose, Social Finance will appeal to a broad audience of academics, policymakers, and practitioners interested in understanding the drivers of financial stability in the twenty-first century.
| Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2021-03-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464815453 |
Download Global Waves of Debt Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
| Author | : Laurent Ferrara |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 300 |
| Release | : 2018-06-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319790757 |
Download International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 657 |
| Release | : 2013-10-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484348834 |
Download World Economic Outlook, October 2013 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
| Author | : Tobias Adrian |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Financial Stability Monitoring Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.
| Author | : Carmen M. Reinhart |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 512 |
| Release | : 2009-09-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400831725 |
Download This Time Is Different Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The acclaimed New York Times bestselling history of financial crises Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing, and recovering their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, “this time is different”—claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents and eight centuries, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises—including government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes—from medieval currency debasements to the subprime mortgage catastrophe. Reinhart and Rogoff provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. A remarkable history of financial folly, This Time Is Different will influence financial and economic thinking and policy for decades to come.
| Author | : Gunter, Frank R. |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 360 |
| Release | : 2021-10-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1789906075 |
Download The Political Economy of Iraq Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The second edition of The Political Economy of Iraq is as comprehensive and accessible as the first with updated data and analysis. Frank R. Gunter discusses in detail how the convergence of the ISIS insurgency, collapse in oil prices, and massive youth unemployment produced a serious political crisis in 2020. This work ends with a discussion of key policy decisions that will determine Iraq’s future. This volume will be a valuable resource for anyone with a professional, business, or academic interest in the post-2003 political economy of Iraq.
| Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 402 |
| Release | : 2009-12-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Download Inflation Expectations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
| Author | : Riccardo Rebonato |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 269 |
| Release | : 2010-06-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470971487 |
Download Coherent Stress Testing Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In Coherent Stress Testing: A Bayesian Approach, industry expert Riccardo Rebonato presents a groundbreaking new approach to this important but often undervalued part of the risk management toolkit. Based on the author's extensive work, research and presentations in the area, the book fills a gap in quantitative risk management by introducing a new and very intuitively appealing approach to stress testing based on expert judgement and Bayesian networks. It constitutes a radical departure from the traditional statistical methodologies based on Economic Capital or Extreme-Value-Theory approaches. The book is split into four parts. Part I looks at stress testing and at its role in modern risk management. It discusses the distinctions between risk and uncertainty, the different types of probability that are used in risk management today and for which tasks they are best used. Stress testing is positioned as a bridge between the statistical areas where VaR can be effective and the domain of total Keynesian uncertainty. Part II lays down the quantitative foundations for the concepts described in the rest of the book. Part III takes readers through the application of the tools discussed in part II, and introduces two different systematic approaches to obtaining a coherent stress testing output that can satisfy the needs of industry users and regulators. In part IV the author addresses more practical questions such as embedding the suggestions of the book into a viable governance structure.
