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Fiscal Multipliers for Brazil

Fiscal Multipliers for Brazil
Author: Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2016-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484307895

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We find historical fiscal multipliers for Brazil around 0.5, larger than what existing literature typically identifies for the average emerging market. However, spending and public credit multipliers seem to have dropped to near zero since the global financial crisis, as the estimate for the whole sample period (1999-2014) is about 1⁄2 of that for precrisis years. By contrast, revenue multipliers have remained broadly stable. We conclude that fiscal consolidations based on expenditure and public credit retrenchment are likely to entail a modest drag on growth in the near term.


Fiscal Multipliers for Brazil

Fiscal Multipliers for Brazil
Author: Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2016-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475525621

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We find historical fiscal multipliers for Brazil around 0.5, larger than what existing literature typically identifies for the average emerging market. However, spending and public credit multipliers seem to have dropped to near zero since the global financial crisis, as the estimate for the whole sample period (1999-2014) is about 1⁄2 of that for precrisis years. By contrast, revenue multipliers have remained broadly stable. We conclude that fiscal consolidations based on expenditure and public credit retrenchment are likely to entail a modest drag on growth in the near term.


How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?

How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?
Author: Jorge Restrepo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2020-01-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513526839

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This paper uses the strategy and data of Blanchard and Perotti (BP) to identify fiscal shocks and estimate fiscal multipliers for the United States. With these results, it computes the cumulative multiplier of Ramey and Zubairy (2018), now common in the literature. It finds that, contrary to the peak and through multipliers reported by BP, the cumulative tax multiplier is much larger than the cumulative spending one. Hence, the conclusions depend on the definition of multiplier. This methodology is also used to estimate the effects of fiscal shocks on economic activity in eight Latin American countries. The results suggest that the fiscal multipliers vary significantly across countries, and in some cases multipliers are larger than previously estimated.


Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 102
Release: 2015-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475588151

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This Selected Issues paper examines infrastructure investment in Brazil. Brazil has inferior overall infrastructure quality relative to almost all its export competitors. Brazil’s infrastructure endowment ranks low by international standards, and its low quality affects productivity, market efficiency, and competitiveness. Areas in which Brazil’s competitiveness has lagged include, but are not limited to, education, innovation, governance, and justice. Brazil’s infrastructure gap has become a major obstacle to growth and filling this gap will entail increasing investment and also stepping up other reforms.


Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 102
Release: 2015-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475521324

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This Selected Issues paper examines infrastructure investment in Brazil. Brazil has inferior overall infrastructure quality relative to almost all its export competitors. Brazil’s infrastructure endowment ranks low by international standards, and its low quality affects productivity, market efficiency, and competitiveness. Areas in which Brazil’s competitiveness has lagged include, but are not limited to, education, innovation, governance, and justice. Brazil’s infrastructure gap has become a major obstacle to growth and filling this gap will entail increasing investment and also stepping up other reforms.


Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2017-05-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475597452

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Despite the development of fiscal responsibility legislation, several weaknesses in fiscal transparency have had adverse effects on the quality of fiscal policy—many of which are being addressed. Brazil has made significant progress over recent decades in providing regular information on the budget and its implementation at all levels of government, partly driven by the 2000 Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL). These include advances in implementing international standards to improve the quality of data. At the same time, fiscal transparency has been undermined by weaknesses in the fiscal framework and by practices that are inconsistent with the principles of the FRL (including unreported liabilities, the “pedaladas”). These include: incomplete information on policies and their costs or risks; accounting changes, and lack of clarity on fiscal reporting standards, that undermine the effectiveness of the fiscal rules (at all levels of government); lack of transparency in the relationship between the central government and public banks and between the central government and subnational governments; and corruption involving some of the largest public enterprises. Since 2015, important efforts have been underway to address some of these weaknesses.


The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates

The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates
Author: Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2012-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463948263

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This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility and improvements in the fiscal and external positions) has helped Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can converge towards lower equilibrium real interest rates if domestic savings increase to the level of other emerging market countries. The effect is particularly pronounced if the increase in domestic savings is achieved through higher levels of public savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil are about two full percentage points higher than in other countries in the sample, suggesting that there are still Brazil-specific factors that have not been captured by the empirical analysis. Some of these factors may include credit market segmentation and inflation inertia generated by still pervasive indexation practices.


Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2017-10-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484321219

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This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations for supporting implementation of the expenditure rule through public financial management reforms in Brazil. To address rigidities in the budget and to create more fiscal space, authorities need to establish processes to build flexibility and improve efficiency. These include reviewing mandatory expenditures and indexation practices. Other options include a rolling program of spending reviews for large and fast-growing programs and efficiency dividends on ministries’ operational expenses. Authorities also need to begin to develop a medium-term budget framework to support strategic decision making.