Estimation Risk in Financial Risk Management
Author | : Christoffersen, Peter |
Publisher | : Montréal : CIRANO |
Total Pages | : 27 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Christoffersen, Peter |
Publisher | : Montréal : CIRANO |
Total Pages | : 27 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Peter Christoffersen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Business enterprises |
ISBN | : |
Author | : David Ardia |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 206 |
Release | : 2008-05-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3540786570 |
This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.
Author | : Jon Danielsson |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 307 |
Release | : 2011-04-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1119977118 |
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Author | : Daniel Giamouridis |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Christoffersen and Goncalves (2005) study the effect of parameter estimation error in computing Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall through commonly used methods including the Cornish-Fisher/Gram-Charlier approximations approach. We provide a correction to the expression used for the computation of the Expected Shortfall under the Cornish-Fisher/Gram-Charlier approximations and illustrate the effect of the error found in assessing the accuracy of Expected Shortfall point forecasts.
Author | : K.H. Erickson |
Publisher | : K.H. Erickson |
Total Pages | : 75 |
Release | : |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Financial Risk Management: A Simple Introduction presents a detailed guide to some of the central ideas and tools of financial risk management, with theory, examples, formulas, and calculations to illustrate the analysis. Calculate leverage, duration, modified duration, and convexity to find the risk exposure and interest rate risk sensitivity of an asset. Understand bond immunization to manage risk, and assess non-vanilla bond risk using both effective duration and effective convexity. Use value at risk to forecast maximum losses over a period, with detailed step by step instructions provided to using the variance-covariance, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo methods. Learn how to perform autocorrelation and unit root tests to test the square root of time rule. Conduct time-varying volatility analysis, using detailed steps to create an exponentially weighted moving average and then backtest it for robustness. Apply financial risk management tools to the empirical 1994 bankruptcy of Orange County, California to determine if it could have been avoided, and assess a number of financial derivative hedge instruments.
Author | : Yannick Malevergne |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 312 |
Release | : 2006-01-16 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 3540272666 |
"Clearly elucidates extreme financial risks associated with rare events such as financial crashes. The highlight of the book is the delineation of various copulas in conjunction with financial dependences among different assets of a portfolio. In particular, the insightful discussion on quadrant and orthant dependences casts new light on the connection between marginal models and financial dependence...brings a vivid portrayal of the subject." -- MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
Author | : Lev Borodovsky |
Publisher | : Elsevier |
Total Pages | : 817 |
Release | : 2000-02-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0080480446 |
Professional's Handbook of Financial Risk Management is a major reference work in finance. A complete practical reference book covering all aspects of financial risk management including an in-depth look at operational risk management, regulation, risk-based capital, and risk adjusted performance measurement. The book focuses on practical financial risk management techniques and solutions, and is designed to guide the risk professional step-by-step through the implementation of a firm-wide risk management framework. This book covers the various roles of the risk management function. Rather than describing every possible role in exhaustive detail, the authors have provided a story line for each of the discussed topics, including practical issues that a risk manager needs to consider when tackling the subject, possible solutions to difficulties that might be encountered, background knowledge that is essential to know, and more intricate practices and techniques that are being used. By providing these fundamentals, the novice risk professional can gain a thorough understanding of the topic in question while the more experienced professional can use some of the more advanced concepts within the book. Thus the book can be used to broaden your own knowledge of the risk world, both by familiarizing yourself with areas in which you lack experience and by enhancing your knowledge in areas that you already have expertise. All authors are leaders in their field who between them have the expertise and knowledge, both practical and theoretical, to produce this definitive risk management guide. The editors of this book, Marc Lore and Lev Borodovsky, are senior financial risk managers at Sanwa Bank (International) London, and Credit Suisse First Boston, USA respectively. They also run The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), the industry association for financial risk management practitioners and researchers. Endorsed by GARP - Global Association of Risk Professionals Authored and edited by leading financial markets risk professionals International in coverage; the concepts and methods covered are not specific to any country or institution, but rather to the risk management profession as a whole
Author | : Francis X. Diebold |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 391 |
Release | : 2010-04-19 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1400835283 |
A clear understanding of what we know, don't know, and can't know should guide any reasonable approach to managing financial risk, yet the most widely used measure in finance today--Value at Risk, or VaR--reduces these risks to a single number, creating a false sense of security among risk managers, executives, and regulators. This book introduces a more realistic and holistic framework called KuU --the K nown, the u nknown, and the U nknowable--that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them. Bringing together contributions by leaders in finance and economics, this book pushes toward robustifying policies, portfolios, contracts, and organizations to a wide variety of KuU risks. Along the way, the strengths and limitations of "quantitative" risk management are revealed. In addition to the editors, the contributors are Ashok Bardhan, Dan Borge, Charles N. Bralver, Riccardo Colacito, Robert H. Edelstein, Robert F. Engle, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Clive W. J. Granger, Paul R. Kleindorfer, Donald L. Kohn, Howard Kunreuther, Andrew Kuritzkes, Robert H. Litzenberger, Benoit B. Mandelbrot, David M. Modest, Alex Muermann, Mark V. Pauly, Til Schuermann, Kenneth E. Scott, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Richard J. Zeckhauser. Introduces a new risk-management paradigm Features contributions by leaders in finance and economics Demonstrates how "killer risks" are often more economic than statistical, and crucially linked to incentives Shows how to invest and design policies amid financial uncertainty
Author | : Allan M. Malz |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 752 |
Release | : 2011-09-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1118022912 |
Financial risk has become a focus of financial and nonfinancial firms, individuals, and policy makers. But the study of risk remains a relatively new discipline in finance and continues to be refined. The financial market crisis that began in 2007 has highlighted the challenges of managing financial risk. Now, in Financial Risk Management, author Allan Malz addresses the essential issues surrounding this discipline, sharing his extensive career experiences as a risk researcher, risk manager, and central banker. The book includes standard risk measurement models as well as alternative models that address options, structured credit risks, and the real-world complexities or risk modeling, and provides the institutional and historical background on financial innovation, liquidity, leverage, and financial crises that is crucial to practitioners and students of finance for understanding the world today. Financial Risk Management is equally suitable for firm risk managers, economists, and policy makers seeking grounding in the subject. This timely guide skillfully surveys the landscape of financial risk and the financial developments of recent decades that culminated in the crisis. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the different types of financial risk we face, as well as the techniques used to measure and manage them. Topics covered include: Market risk, from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to risk models for options Credit risk, from portfolio credit risk to structured credit products Model risk and validation Risk capital and stress testing Liquidity risk, leverage, systemic risk, and the forms they take Financial crises, historical and current, their causes and characteristics Financial regulation and its evolution in the wake of the global crisis And much more Combining the more model-oriented approach of risk management-as it has evolved over the past two decades-with an economist's approach to the same issues, Financial Risk Management is the essential guide to the subject for today's complex world.