Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Dynamic Flood Inundation Forecasting In Real Time Including Associated Uncertainties For Operational Flood Risk Management PDF full book. Access full book title Dynamic Flood Inundation Forecasting In Real Time Including Associated Uncertainties For Operational Flood Risk Management.
| Author | : Punit Kumar Bhola |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Keith J Beven |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 685 |
| Release | : 2014-01-13 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1783263121 |
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
| Author | : Gareth Pender |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 744 |
| Release | : 2010-12-01 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 144434076X |
Approaches to avoid loss of life and limit disruption and damage from flooding have changed significantly in recent years. Worldwide, there has been a move from a strategy of flood defence to one of flood risk management. Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also requires that society learns to live with floods and that stakeholders living in flood prone areas develop coping strategies to increase their resilience to flood impacts when these occur. This change in approach represents a paradigm shift which stems from the realisation that continuing to strengthen and extend conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equity. Flood risk management recognises that a sustainable approach must rest on integrated measures that reduce not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. This is essential as increases in the probability of inundation are inevitable in many areas of the world due to climate change, while socio-economic development will lead to spiralling increases in the consequences of flooding unless land use in floodplains is carefully planned. Flood Risk Science and Management provides an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current research in flood management; providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide range of flood management topics. Its targeted readership is the international research community (from research students through to senior staff) and flood management professionals, such as engineers, planners, government officials and those with flood management responsibility in the public sector. By using the concept of case study chapters, international coverage is given to the topic, ensuring a world-wide relevance.
| Author | : Guy J-P. Schumann |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 270 |
| Release | : 2018-06-05 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1119217903 |
Global Flood Hazard Subject Category Winner, PROSE Awards 2019, Earth Science Selected from more than 500 entries, demonstrating exceptional scholarship and making a significant contribution to the field of study. Flooding is a costly natural disaster in terms of damage to land, property and infrastructure. This volume describes the latest tools and technologies for modeling, mapping, and predicting large-scale flood risk. It also presents readers with a range of remote sensing data sets successfully used for predicting and mapping floods at different scales. These resources can enable policymakers, public planners, and developers to plan for, and respond to, flooding with greater accuracy and effectiveness. Describes the latest large-scale modeling approaches, including hydrological models, 2-D flood inundation models, and global flood forecasting models Showcases new tools and technologies such as Aqueduct, a new web-based tool used for global assessment and projection of future flood risk under climate change scenarios Features case studies describing best-practice uses of modeling techniques, tools, and technologies Global Flood Hazard is an indispensable resource for researchers, consultants, practitioners, and policy makers dealing with flood risk, flood disaster response, flood management, and flood mitigation.
| Author | : Shreeda Maskey |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 184 |
| Release | : 2004-11-23 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0203026829 |
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
| Author | : Paul Samuels |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 372 |
| Release | : 2008-10-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1134013124 |
Floods cause distress and damage wherever and whenever they happen. Flooding from rivers, estuaries and the sea threatens many millions of people worldwide and economic and insurance losses from flooding have increased significantly since 1990. Based on the work of leading researchers, this book provides an overview of advances in this important subject. It covers all aspects of flood risk including the causes of floods; their impacts on people, property and the environment; and portfolios of risk management measurement. Additional topics include climate change, estimation of extremes, flash floods, flood forecasting and warning, inundation modeling, systems analysis, uncertainty, international programs, and flood defense infrastructure and assets. The book also examines environmental, human, and social impacts; vulnerability and resilience; risk sharing; and civil contingency planning and emergency management.
| Author | : Kevin Sene |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 395 |
| Release | : 2012-12-14 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9400751648 |
Flash floods typically develop in a period a few hours or less and can arise from heavy rainfall and other causes, such as dam or flood defence breaches, and ice jam breaks. The rapid development, often associated with a high debris content, can present a considerable risk to people and property. This book describes recent developments in techniques for monitoring and forecasting the development of flash floods, and providing flood warnings. Topics which are discussed include rainfall and river monitoring, nowcasting, Numerical Weather Prediction, rainfall-runoff modelling, and approaches to the dissemination of flood warnings and provision of an emergency response. The book is potentially useful on civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology courses (and for post graduate studies) but is primarily intended as a review of the topic for a wider audience.
| Author | : Maurizio Mazzoleni |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2017-03-16 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1351652567 |
In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
| Author | : Haojing Shen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 154 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : Flood forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
Accurate forecasting of floods is a long-standing challenge in hydrology and water management. Data assimilation (DA) is a popular technique used to improve forecast accuracy by updating the model states in real time using the uncertainty-quantified actual and model-simulated observations. A particular challenge in DA concerns the ability to improve the prediction of hydrologic extremes, such as floods, which have particularly large impacts on society. Almost all DA methods used today are based on least squares minimization. As such, they are subject to conditional bias (CB) in the presence of observational uncertainties which often leads to under- and over-prediction of the predict and over the upper and lower tails, respectively. To address the adverse impact of CB in DA, conditional bias penalized Kalman filter (CBPKF) and conditional bias penalized ensemble Kalman filter (CBEnKF) have recently been proposed which minimize a weighted sum of the error variance and expectation of the CB squared. Whereas CBPKF and CBEnKF significantly improve the accuracy of the estimates over the tails, they deteriorate performance near the median due to the added penalty. To address the above, this work introduces CB-aware DA, which adaptively weights the CB penalty term in real time, and assesses the flow-dependent information content in observation and model prediction using the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS), which serves as a skill score for information fusion. CB-aware DA is then comparatively evaluated with ensemble Kalman filter in which the marginal information content of observations and its flow dependence are assessed given the hydrologic model used. The findings indicate that CB-aware DA with information content analysis offers an objective framework for improving DA performance for prediction of extremes and dynamically balancing the predictive skill of hydrologic models, quality and frequency of hydrologic observations, and scheduling of DA cycles for improving operational flood forecasting cost-effectively.
| Author | : A. Saul |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 585 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 940111630X |
In recent years there have been a number of catastrophic floods that have resulted in a tragic loss of life. These natural disasters highlight the need to further understand the occurrence phenomena, to improve forecasting techniques, and to develop procedures and contingency plans to minimise the flood impact. This volume contains contributions from the 3rd International Conference on Floods and Flood Management held in Florence in November 1992. The volume is timely and provides an important overview for engineers, scientists, managers and researchers of the latest developments in technology, analysis and management.
