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Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications

Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications
Author: Roberta Pace
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2016-07-29
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 3319327097

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This book examines potential economic opportunities that countries can experience when fertility rates fall and the average life expectancy of the working age population increases. It presents detailed demographic and economic analysis of middle-income countries throughout the world in order to show how these countries can take advantage of this demographic bonus. The book first traces the common link between policies that contribute to fertility transition as well as create the right kind of environment for reaping the benefit of demographic dividend. Next, it explores different countries and regions who are at different levels of development. It assesses the long term impact of gender equality on economic growth and development in Latin America; describes the life-cycle saving patterns of Mexican households; and examines demographic determinants of economic growth in BRICS. The book also offers demographic and economic analysis of the Mediterranean area, Sub-Saharan Africa, and New Zealand. The comparison between the different territorial contexts allow for the identification of three typologies of demographic dividend: the first dividend, when the working population grows faster than total population, the second dividend, as active generations get older and invest their savings in the production system of their country, and the third dividend, based on the coexistence of two populations age structure strongly contrasting. Overall, this book argues for the need to capitalize on the opportunities that come from the demographic dividend by investing heavily in education programs, training programs for the population working age, health programs, the creation of health insurance systems as well as programs to reduce or increase fertility levels.


The Demographic Dividend

The Demographic Dividend
Author: David Bloom
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 127
Release: 2003-02-13
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0833033735

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There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.


U.S. Development Policy in an Aging World

U.S. Development Policy in an Aging World
Author: Richard Jackson
Publisher: CSIS Reports
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781442224933

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The demographic transformation sweeping the emerging world has profound implications for U.S. development policy. The challenge is no longer helping countries overcome the obstacles to development posed by high birthrates and rapid population growth, but leveraging the opportunities created by falling birthrates and slowing population growth. This report discusses how developing countries can best leverage their "demographic dividends" in order to boost income and wealth while they are still young and growing, as well as how they can prepare for the inevitable aging of their populations that looms just over the horizon. It also explores what the emerging new demographic realities imply for the optimal shape of U.S. development policy in decades to come.


Political Demography

Political Demography
Author: Jack A. Goldstone
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2012-08-16
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0199945969

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The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.


Realising the Demographic Dividend

Realising the Demographic Dividend
Author: Santosh Mehrotra
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 498
Release: 2015-12-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1316843319

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This book discusses policies to achieve inclusive growth in India and realise the demographic dividend, which will end by 2040 when India will become an aging society. India is the world's fastest growing large economy, but jobs are not growing equally rapidly. The size of India's youth workforce is worrying, and the largely informal workforce is not covered by social insurance. Universal elementary education, despite the Right to Education Act 2009, is yet to be achieved. Health outcomes have improved only slowly over the years. Furthermore, sanitation still remains a very serious problem. As an economist and former policy-maker, the author discusses specific policies to address these problems, well beyond what is currently being practised. The book also deals with the governance issues that need to be addressed before inclusive growth can be attained.


Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.


The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia

The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2010-10-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226386880

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Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.


Towards a Better Global Economy

Towards a Better Global Economy
Author: Franklin Allen
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 576
Release: 2014-09-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191035130

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Substantial progress in the fight against extreme poverty was made in the last two decades. But the slowdown in global economic growth and significant increases in income inequality in many developed and developing countries raise serious concerns about the continuation of this trend into the 21st century. The time has come to seriously think about how improvements in official global governance, coupled with and reinforced by rising activism of 'global citizens' can lead to welfare-enhancing and more equitable results for global citizens through better national and international policies. This book examines the factors that are most likely to facilitate the process of beneficial economic growth in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. It examines past, present, and future economic growth; demographic changes; the hyperglobalization of trade; the effect of finance on growth; climate change and resource depletion; and the sense of global citizenship and the need for global governance in order to draw longer-term implications, identify policy options for improving the lives of average citizens around the world, and make the case for the need to confront new challenges with truly global policy responses. The book documents how demographic changes, convergence, and competition are likely to bring about massive shifts in the sectoral and geographical composition of global output and employment, as the center of gravity of the global economy moves toward Asia and emerging economies elsewhere. It shows that the legacies of the 2008-09 crisis-high unemployment levels, massive excess capacities, and high debt levels-are likely to reduce the standard of living of millions of people in many countries over a long period of adjustment and that fluctuations in international trade, financial markets, and commodity prices, as well as the tendency of institutions at both the national and international level to favor the interests of the better-off and more powerful pose substantial risks for citizens of all countries. The chapters and their policy implications are intended to stimulate public interest and facilitate the exchange of ideas and policy dialogue.


The Demographic Dividend

The Demographic Dividend
Author: Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2011-02-01
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1455217883

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Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.


World Population to 2300

World Population to 2300
Author:
Publisher: New York : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2004
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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Based on the 2002 Revision, the Population Division has adopted 2 major innovations for this new set of long-range population projections. For the first time the long-range projections are made at the national level and the time horizon for the projections is extended to 2300.