Comovements of Business Cycles in Open Economies
Author | : Ha-Hyun Jo |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 164 |
Release | : 1987 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Ha-Hyun Jo |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 164 |
Release | : 1987 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Mr.Ayhan Kose |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 2008-06-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451870019 |
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author | : Arthur Barto Adams |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 302 |
Release | : 1925 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Thomas F. Cooley |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 452 |
Release | : 1995-02-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780691043234 |
This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Author | : Marianne Baxter |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 80 |
Release | : 1995 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Virtually all economies experience recurrent fluctuations in economic activity that persist for periods of several quarters to several years. Further, there is a definite tendency for the business cycles of developed countries to move together--there is a world component to business cycles. This paper argues that capital accumulation and international capital flows are central to understanding world trade and business cycles. In particular, fluctuations in net exports and the current account are shown to be dominated by trade in capital goods. The paper develops a two country model of international trade within which capital accumulation and international investment flows play a central role. We explore the channels by which technology shocks and fiscal shocks are transmitted to the domestic and foreign economies, and discuss the extent to which these results are sensitive to individuals' opportunities for international trade in financial assets. Overall, we find that the models capture many of the salient features of international business cycles. However, it has proven consistently difficult to generate sufficient comovement across countries in labor input and investment. The paper concludes with a discussion of fruitful directions for future research.
Author | : Victor Zarnowitz |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 613 |
Release | : 2007-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226978923 |
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author | : Mr.Pau Rabanal |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2004-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451875657 |
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author | : Nir Jaimovich |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 16 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
It is well known that the neoclassical model does not generate comovement among macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future total factor productivity. We show that this problem is generally more severe in open economy versions of the neoclassical model. We present an open economy model that generates comovement both in response to sudden stops and to news about future productivity and investment-specific technical change. We find that comovement is easier to generate in the presence of weak short-run wealth effects on the labor supply, adjustment costs to labor, and/or investment, and whenever the real interest rate faced by the economy rises with the level of net foreign debt.
Author | : Enrique G. Mendoza |
Publisher | : London : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 1989 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Solomos Solomou |
Publisher | : Manchester University Press |
Total Pages | : 150 |
Release | : 1998 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780719041518 |
The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?