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An Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models

An Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Adrien-Paul Lambillon
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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The aim of this paper is to explain and apply the stochastic volatility models of Heston and GARCH to model the S&P 500 index volatility. The maximum likelihood estimate of the CIR process in the volatility equation of the Heston model and GARCH(1,1) with different underlying distributions are compared. It is shown that the model with strongest mean reversion, the CIR model, is the best volatility estimation for the overall period. For periods of volatility clustering, however, GARCH models capture the behaviour more accurately.


Stochastic Volatility and Jumps

Stochastic Volatility and Jumps
Author: Katja Ignatieva
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper analyzes exponentially affine and non-affine stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and volatility. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is applied within a Bayesian inference to estimate model parameters and latent variables using daily returns from the Samp;P 500 stock index. There are two approaches to overcome the problem of misspecification of the square root stochastic volatility model. The first approach proposed by Christo ersen, Jacobs and Mimouni (2008) suggests to investigate some non-affine alternatives of the volatility process. The second approach consists in examining more heavily parametrized models by adding jumps to the return and possibly to the volatility process. The aim of this paper is to combine both model frameworks and to test whether the class of affine models is outperformed by the class of non-affine models if we include jumps into the stochastic processes. We conclude that the non-affine model structure have promising statistical properties and are worth further investigations. Further, we find affine models with jump components that perform similar to the non affine models without jump components. Since non affine models yield economically unrealistic parameter estimates, and research is rather developed for the affine model structures we have a tendency to prefer the affine jump diffusion models.


Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications
Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 566
Release: 2012-03-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118272056

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A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.


Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets

Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets
Author: Eugenie M.J.H. Hol
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 168
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 147575129X

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Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.


Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models

Stochastic Volatility and Realized Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Makoto Takahashi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2023-04-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981990935X

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This treatise delves into the latest advancements in stochastic volatility models, highlighting the utilization of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for estimating model parameters and forecasting the volatility and quantiles of financial asset returns. The modeling of financial time series volatility constitutes a crucial aspect of finance, as it plays a vital role in predicting return distributions and managing risks. Among the various econometric models available, the stochastic volatility model has been a popular choice, particularly in comparison to other models, such as GARCH models, as it has demonstrated superior performance in previous empirical studies in terms of fit, forecasting volatility, and evaluating tail risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The book also explores an extension of the basic stochastic volatility model, incorporating a skewed return error distribution and a realized volatility measurement equation. The concept of realized volatility, a newly established estimator of volatility using intraday returns data, is introduced, and a comprehensive description of the resulting realized stochastic volatility model is provided. The text contains a thorough explanation of several efficient sampling algorithms for latent log volatilities, as well as an illustration of parameter estimation and volatility prediction through empirical studies utilizing various asset return data, including the yen/US dollar exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nikkei 225 stock index. This publication is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the latest developments in stochastic volatility models and realized stochastic volatility models, particularly in regards to financial risk management.


Volatility Models in Option Pricing with Empirical Analysis in The Chinese Market

Volatility Models in Option Pricing with Empirical Analysis in The Chinese Market
Author: Jun Yue
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

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Nowadays, financial derivatives play an increasingly important role in the global financial system, and options are popular structural financial derivatives, which attract much attention from academia and the industry. China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) initiated the CSI 1000 index future and CSI 1000 index option in the Chinese market on July 22, 2022, which indicates a trend of acceleration in financial innovations in China's financial market. This dissertation focuses on the volatility models in option pricing and modern numerical procedures that approximate option prices. In this dissertation, different stochastic volatility models, for example, the Black-Scholes model and the Heston stochastic volatility model, are introduced and applied to price in not only European options but also exotic options, which possess complicated payoff structures. Moreover, a comprehensive empirical analysis is conducted to demonstrate these option pricing algorithms based on the recent data of CSI 1000 index options in the Chinese market.