A Contingency Approach To Empirically Comparing Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Of Statistical Models To Those Of Financial Analysts PDF Download

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An Empirical Investigation Into a Contingency Rule for Selecting Firms for which Statistical Models Will Provide More Accurate Earnings Forecasts Than Those Generated by Financial Analysts

An Empirical Investigation Into a Contingency Rule for Selecting Firms for which Statistical Models Will Provide More Accurate Earnings Forecasts Than Those Generated by Financial Analysts
Author: William S. Hopwood
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1978
Genre: Business forecasting
ISBN:

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A Multivariate Analysis of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated from Quarterly Forecasts of Financial Analysts and Univariate Time Series Models

A Multivariate Analysis of Annual Earnings Forecasts Generated from Quarterly Forecasts of Financial Analysts and Univariate Time Series Models
Author: William S. Hopwood
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 1979
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

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The study compares the forecast accuracy of financial analysts, ARIMA models, and various permier models considered in the literature in the predicting of annual earnings per share. Various refinements were made of previously used methodologies. The results of the multivariate analysis indicated that financial analysts provide the most accurate forecasts. In addition, the divergence in accuracy between the various sources of forecasts tend to decrease as the end of the year approaches, while at the same time there is a general increase in accuracy. Also specific results are provided for individual model performance.


Economics Working Papers

Economics Working Papers
Author: John Fletcher
Publisher:
Total Pages: 640
Release: 1978
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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A Multivariate Analysis of Earnings Forecasts Generated by Financial Analysts and Univariate Time Series Models

A Multivariate Analysis of Earnings Forecasts Generated by Financial Analysts and Univariate Time Series Models
Author: William S. Hopwood
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1978
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

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The study provides evidence on the relative accuracy of forecasts of earnings generated from five sources including statistical models and financial analysts. The statistical models were chosen on the basis of their usage in recent studies in the literature. The results indicate that the five types of forecasts are not significantly different using a multivariate testing procedure.


National Union Catalog

National Union Catalog
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 1032
Release: 1982
Genre: Catalogs, Union
ISBN:

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Includes entries for maps and atlases.


Financial Analysts? Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Financial Analysts? Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements
Author: Samuel S. Tung
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study investigates the relationship between the dispersion of analysts? earnings forecasts and stock price variability around quarterly earnings announcements. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the empirical analysis shows that stock price variability at the time of earnings announcements is positively related to the degree of analysts? earnings forecast dispersion. The analysis also demonstrates that stock price variability is significantly greater from two days before to two days after the earnings announcement for firms ranked in the bottom third on the basis of analysts? forecast dispersion, whereas it is significantly greater from eight days prior to five days following the earnings announcement for firms in the top third. These results suggest that there is information about the earnings announcement that becomes available to at least a subset of investors prior to the earnings release. The increased level of price variability for five days following the earnings announcement suggests that market participants take different amounts of time to process the information conveyed by the earnings announcement.


Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2019-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262039370

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An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.